House Prices / Interest Rates 2022 onwards

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Higher end new build flats in London are being bought by Chinese. Councils are giving high rise building permits like crazy as they are trying to increase council tax income due to their budget being cut by the government. Parts of London will end up like parts New York, just investment properties.
 
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Higher end new build flats in London are being bought by Chinese. Councils are giving high rise building permits like crazy as they are trying to increase council tax income due to their budget being cut by the government. Parts of London will end up like parts New York, just investment properties.

Indeed - my clients have sold thousands of flats in London to investors but even they are now somewhat reluctant. So be it if they want lots of empty flats and no “affordable” housing so no normal people can live in London anymore. There are plenty of other places in the UK to live a very nice life with high wages and good prospects.
 
Soldato
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Just move away from London. We moved to Manchester 8 years ago as couldn’t afford anything in London with a combined salary of £120k. We initially took a hit to salaries moving to Manchester but regained that now and we have a lovely 4 bed house (250m2) for £350k.
Covid has very much proven that living in or around London is no longer desirable unless you already live there in a house with garden (flats in London are suffering from an extreme lack of sales) and there are huge job centres on the north and midlands.

The problem is Covid has pushed prices outside of London even higher as well as people with high paying jobs and their companies are realising there is live outside of London and remote workers save not he cost of office space.

Our house in Cheshire bought in Sep 2020 has gone up £100k already in just over a year. Interest in that same year on the mortgage about £5500. £95,000 profit. Sure our house is around £1m so if you divide by 4 or 5 to get something closer to the average house, someone would need to be banking £15k-£25k a year just to keep up with house prices. Add in living expenses, renting overhead and saving up for the deposit as well and it shows how difficult it is even for 'middle earners' even with no kids and limited expenses. Never mind people on living or minimum wages etc, they are screwed. Even me being a capitalist tory scum sees this as just not right or sustainable.

There is literally a tax on being poor for housing and then everything else as well.
 
Soldato
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Managed to "get on the ladder" in 2021 with my partner. Remote working has really been a god send and allowed us to purchase far sooner than initially intended as we did live apart.

Be interesting to see what the market is doing in 5 year's time when we will likely be looking to upsize. Now I'm "on the ladder" I don't want prices to fall but them stagnating somewhat would be fine and better for others trying to buy a first home.
 
Soldato
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@Scam I'm not a boomer, but can well imagine how much people are paying in rent. In London, I'd honestly dread to think how much people are paying these days. Wages are higher, but not that much higher.
 
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Not in my position as I'd have to make the step anyway as I own my first home now. (with mortgage).

It's more if you can skip the starter home completely.
No one wants that rate. But (I'm not sure if it's fixed for 20 years) it could even be amazing if interest rates really spike.

I think if I was about to buy my home again and someone said 'you can get this 500k house' or this '300k' house but you'll pay less I'd go for the 500.

Also.the house price rise of 25 percent in two years here is a lot more on that 500k house!

That 500k house is now 625k. So that few hundred a month extra is still. Probably a saving.
I have to find that 125k. The original Buyers on that 7x don't.

You also save on moving costs. Stamp duty again and legal fees.

So really. If you are confident in an increasing market its a no brainer.. Imo

I suppose so, assuming your income grows nicely over the years so that what started as ~50% of your take home in mortgage payments decreases to much less than that. That's probably a reasonable bet.
Without that ocurring, I wouldn't fancy forgoing having a balanced high quality of life (good entertainment, holidays, early-ish retirement, whatever else floats your boat) for 35 years solely to have a bigger/nicer home.
 
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Does it matter? If renting is more expensive than buying, why in the world wouldn't you buy?!
He was talking about buying a "forever home" so I assumed a "normal home" was within his means without the need for a 7x 35 year mortgage. I agree if the choice is between that and renting then it might be a more attractive option if you'd otherwise be spending the same or more on rent.
 
Soldato
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Would you actually want a 7x loan over 35 years hanging around your neck just to fulfil the goal of obtaining a "forever" home?
I ran a quick calculation and the repayments would be over 50% of our take home compared to around 20% currently. This would limit our quality of life in other areas and/or our retirement plans (goal to retire at 55 or earlier). Seems like a horrible idea to me unless your current accommodation is awful.

Yeah I'd certainly go for a 7x salary mortgage for a bigger home. Retiring at 55 for my generation is a pipe dream if you want any form of luxury. Frankly I don't see the point in retiring at 55 if you've not got a pension paying out 40k+ as you're going to be very limited with what you can do.
 
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Yeah I'd certainly go for a 7x salary mortgage for a bigger home. Retiring at 55 for my generation is a pipe dream if you want any form of luxury. Frankly I don't see the point in retiring at 55 if you've not got a pension paying out 40k+ as you're going to be very limited with what you can do.
My point wasn't that everyone should be aiming to retire at 55, it's that there are other financial needs and goals in life than mortgaging yourself to the hilt. Spending 50% of take home for 35 years to buy a "forever" home is probably limiting ability to achieve these.
 
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Housing is clearly out of kilter with wages. At work its really telling. Older consultants have massive 7 figure houses and put a few kids through independent school with astay at home parent and single wage. New consultants cannot afford independent school and live in much more modest housing.
 
Soldato
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One of my team members is 3 years into a 35 year mortgage and I think he said he’s paying circa £1400 a month for a detached 4 bed house in Essex. I thought that was crazy.

Which bit is crazy? The £1400 or the 35 years? £1400 pcm for a 4 bed detached in essex seems really rather cheap to me!

Housing is clearly out of kilter with wages. At work its really telling. Older consultants have massive 7 figure houses and put a few kids through independent school with astay at home parent and single wage. New consultants cannot afford independent school and live in much more modest housing.

Are these older consultants partner-level with much younger other halves? Kinda makes sense if someone is ~50-55 when kids are school age and can thus afford independent schools, whereas someone in their early 30s is going to be way down the food chain as such. Obviously the fact that their 7 figure house was probably a quarter of that when they bought it at 30 years old definitely helps too!
 
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