House prices..

Heliospherez · 12 Mar 2009 at 09:20

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/4974499/House-prices-could-fall-by-further-55-per-cent.html

If they fall this much we could all be in for big problems.

SKILL · 12 Mar 2009 at 09:27

I was just tempted to post that in t'other thread at the moment, this quote particularly stands out for me:

The Numis report says: “The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK Government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly indebted economy. We believe the scale of the macro imbalances in the UK means there is no prospect of a recovery in 2009 and we expect the UK to be mired in a deep recession through all of 2010.”

You can see where they are coming from though, we've had 15-20% falls in a year (new records all round I believe), and we've only just entered into a recession technically, unemployment is rising but not massive yet and even those keeping their jobs a lot are taking pay cuts...

HEADRAT · 12 Mar 2009 at 09:30

I'm happy with my "long term investment" in my house.

Heliospherez · 12 Mar 2009 at 09:34

I think their analysis of what could potentially happen is a lot closer to some of the spin the Gov. has been feeding us over the last 6 months or so.

We are now half way through March - and since Nov or so last year, the Gov has been trying one failed thing after another to get things going - and each time we have just shifted further into the recessionary trough.

I too believe we are only just beginning to head into possibly an 18month - 36month downward turn (if we are lucky) - with the real job losses only starting now. I just wish the Gov would stop peeing about with my tax money and start owning up to their mistakes.

Solari · 12 Mar 2009 at 09:35

I really want to buy a place but am waiting to see how things are in September. I've worked hard to save what is almost 25% deposit on my top end budget. I'd still struggle to secure a decent mortgage rate though - unless you have 40% deposit, you haven't a hope in hell of getting a nice low rate.

Sellers are still being unrealistic as well IMO. My neighbours have their house up for way above market rate (peak price) as an example.

brid · 12 Mar 2009 at 10:03

I'm really pleased with the non negative, long term return of putting a 10p piece under my mattress, as opposed to the 20-30 grand a year loss the average home 'investment' is making

blaze of glory · 12 Mar 2009 at 10:07

Do people ever learn, houses should be homes. Not get rich schemes.

brid · 12 Mar 2009 at 10:55

'This time its different'

You'd think after a century of boom and bust, people would have woken up to the fact that they are being played like a cheap piano .... badly.

Unfortunately, as generations pass, it gets worse, and worse, and worse ..... Once a miner could go to work and support his 5 children in his brick terrace house with the wife at home .... then a baby boomer could afford his 2.4 kids in his semi detached house with the wife at home .... and now both a man and wife have to go to work to support their 1 child being cared for in a nursery, in their 2 bedroom flat or shoebox terrace.... All while being told we've never had it so good and that their home is an investment/pension.

Fusion · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:03

Miners were on good wages though- the equivalent of £30-40k today usually. Not a bad salary to say you didn't need qualifications and could do from leaving school.

But yes, I agree with what you're broadly saying- even if you were on an average salary decades ago you would have got much more for your money.

cheets64 · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:14

House prices rose to much from a number of factors, a boom, easy access to 100% mortages meaning anybody could buy a house, easy remortgage terms, it only took a rise in living costs for people to see that their outcome was more than their income. People living beyond their means, not being thrifty, we are just going back to how life was in the 80 and early 90s.

Ironic Namesake · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:16

I've been looking at properties recently , as a few things have started popping up in my price range at the moment.

Is the general view still to hold tight for a bit as we haven't seen the bottom yet?

Heliospherez · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:20

I would.

But, don't take just my advice - As I know just as much/little as everyone else in the world (even though some seem as though they are experts/have some sort of time machine looking into the future)

Abraham · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:24

OoOverclockaoO said:
I've been looking at properties recently , as a few things have started popping up in my price range at the moment.

Is the general view still to hold tight for a bit as we haven't seen the bottom yet?

I'm in a similar situation although more through just being in a situation where I can than prices dropping as they've been reasonably stable where i'm looking. If you're planning on staying there a while and you have job security then it's not the worst idea, and is probably what I'm doing. I'm becoming a bit more concerned about just how bad the national situation could get, I'm happy to ride out negative equity as I'm planning on being anywhere I do buy for quite some time and it's a very rentable area even if I wanted to move, don't want to be wiped out by something out of my control though. I'm hoping there's as small a risk of that happening as I think, but my confidence has just been waivering a bit in the past few days

Fusion · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:27

OoOverclockaoO said:
I've been looking at properties recently , as a few things have started popping up in my price range at the moment.

Is the general view still to hold tight for a bit as we haven't seen the bottom yet?

Yeah there's some way to go yet. I'd imagine the majority of losses will be in the next eighteen months. It'll probably take a few years from there to bottom out (the late eighties boom-bust led to a mimimum in 1995!) but the rate of price decrease will slow with time.

Ironic Namesake · 12 Mar 2009 at 11:45

To be honest before this I never really considered buying , I just started saving when I started working and realised I'm in a position where buying might be a possibility.

I'm happy to wait a while and save up some more , can stay with parents for cheap for now

FirebarUK · 12 Mar 2009 at 12:43

I'm happy to wait a while and save up some more , can stay with parents for cheap for now

Enjoy it (if that's possible?!) whilst you can. You could save a huge amount whilst you keep an eye on the market

gumbald · 12 Mar 2009 at 18:13

I'm still hanging on... Some people aren't moving their prices yet round here! Don't know who they think is going to offer that.

Jonnycoupe · 12 Mar 2009 at 21:11

Sagalout said:
Eh? There is no housing shortage - just look at all the new builds that have stopped because theres no one wanting to buy them!

Or lenders wont lend to people wanting to buy, or when they agree to lend they are devaluing them massively over the developer prices so it totally changes the buyers LTV or wipes out the chance of the 75%/25% schemes.

Ironic Namesake · 13 Mar 2009 at 22:41

Is there any sites which actually show the real prices ... as in the prices properties have sold for in the last few months - to see the difference between the asking/actual price?

I have a viewing next Saturday, just to have a look what I can get for my money

DB_SamX · 13 Mar 2009 at 22:52

OoOverclockaoO said:
Is there any sites which actually show the real prices ... as in the prices properties have sold for in the last few months - to see the difference between the asking/actual price?

I have a viewing next Saturday, just to have a look what I can get for my money

www.zoopla.co.uk

Postcode > recently sold

However, in mine, all recently sold are dated as today, so I am not sure how reliable it is. I really like that site though. There is also a link on the right to "home values".