Is there any truth in this? WLTP and a glut of cars next month

Hades · 31 Aug 2018 at 15:11

I am looking for a new car. I was talking to a dealer yesterday and chatting about the impact WLTP is having on current and future stocks. I tend not to believe much a dealer says because they are motivated to sell cars. But I couldn't see the benefit he would get from telling me the below information.

I know about the recent WLTP changes and how they mean that every combination of car, engine, gearbox, extras, etc must be tested. He was saying that stock levels have been incredibly low in recent months because the testing is delaying some cars from coming through to the dealers. But he also said that the UK divisions usually pre-order the cars from their parent companies. So there are many cars which have been pre-ordered but can't be delivered to the dealers until they are cleared through WLTP.

So he suggested that in September and October there will be a large glut of cars which suddenly make it into the dealerships, potentially resulting in good deals being available and a buyers market.

Does this seem likely?

[TW]Fox · 31 Aug 2018 at 15:36

Mysterae_ · 31 Aug 2018 at 15:47

I had to google WLTP as I hadn't heard of it but I'm not looking at a new car nor do I sell them.

This article popped up - AM Online and it mentions a shortfall of cars available and the dealers missing their bonuses. Not sure if that would make make good deals, it could be the opposite - more expensive cars to inflate their profits. Reading between the lines the best time for deals was before WLTP, i.e. this month.

Joe T · 31 Aug 2018 at 16:37

I think the overall shortage of cars will make for a less deals around. Yes, there will be some pre-registering in August to prevent IVA but this will vary between brands (for Vauxhall it's next to nothing, for example).

You'll see it more in reduced available trim/engine configurations, less options, etc (Seat have gone with a zero-option model, for example). Some manufacturers simply didnt start their testing soon enough, and are not yet able to offer a full complement of models (again, not Vauxhall for which every model is currently available to order).

Hades · 31 Aug 2018 at 16:52

He didn't mean that the shortage of cars would make deals easier. He meant that cars have already been pre ordered by the UK dealers to meet their targets with their parent companies. They can't yet be delivered to the dealers because they haven't yet been WLTP tested. But when they have been tested they will then flood the dealer network because the dealers have already ordered them.

I'm in no rush to buy. I can buy today if the deal is right or wait another year if if there are no good deals. So I'll see what happens next month.

Nasher · 31 Aug 2018 at 17:26

So what's to stop them shipping all the cars with nothing in them and fitting it all after registering it?

I hope it won't get like some countries where the default car has basically nothing in it and everything is an extra :/

Dangerous Dave · 31 Aug 2018 at 17:30

Local BMW dealer have a load of pre reg 18 plate cars for sale, good deals on them now even on the newer models. I would expect dealers have loaded up on pre reg cars to take them through any short term supply shortages.

IAmATeaf · 31 Aug 2018 at 18:06

Won’t most of these cars already have been sold anyway? So it means a further delay for the new owner but not a glut of cars from my understanding?

Joe T · 1 Sep 2018 at 08:16

Hades said:
He didn't mean that the shortage of cars would make deals easier. He meant that cars have already been pre ordered by the UK dealers to meet their targets with their parent companies. They can't yet be delivered to the dealers because they haven't yet been WLTP tested. But when they have been tested they will then flood the dealer network because the dealers have already ordered them.

I dont think that's the case. Most manufacturers focus on the number of cars registered, not ordered.

Jonnycoupe · 1 Sep 2018 at 10:58

Nasher said:
So what's to stop them shipping all the cars with nothing in them and fitting it all after registering it?

I hope it won't get like some countries where the default car has basically nothing in it and everything is an extra :/

Cost to do that.

Hades · 1 Sep 2018 at 11:26

Joe T said:
I dont think that's the case. Most manufacturers focus on the number of cars registered, not ordered.

I think there are two numbers at play. Firstly the UK dealers have targets to order cars from their international parent company. Then the dealers have targets on the number of cars they have to sell.

If we take VW as an example, VW UK has a target for the number
of cars it orders from Volkswagen Group. To meet this demand they may have to order cars and pre-register them. When the cars arrive at VW UK the dealers are then expected to meet targets to sell them.

So how it was explained to me was that over the last few months VW UK (and presumably other marques too) have pre-registered their normal volume of cars to hit their target with Volkswagen Group. These have not yet been delivered because of WLTP. But when those models are finally tested they will be delivered to VW UK who will then have a surplus of cars to sell. They will then expected the dealers to sell them.

Housey · 1 Sep 2018 at 11:26

Some manufacturers have few issues, some have massive ones such as Audi and Skoda. I believe there is significant pre-registration taking place at the moment.

DaveyD · 1 Sep 2018 at 11:27

Majority of car makers will have been ready for WLTP over the last 12 months.

VW group have the biggest problem - big chunk of their cars aren’t available to order, and those that can be ordered are going to be the ones that likely sell the most. You still can’t order a new Porsche, or new A5 for example. Majority of that problem is down to how much focus Dieselgate has had on them.

In UK WLTP won’t be taxed for several years - so impact won’t really be any different Aug to Sep, and Germany the tax is relatively pennies on CO2 compared to UK.

Main thing to look out for is if a new car is NEDC CO2 or NEDC back calculated from WLTP - all new BMW, Mercedes already do, but certain stock that may have been around for a few months may still be older spec - which would likely be the best deals about.

The testing requirements are significantly higher, and costlier, but you certainly don’t test every config of car - that’d be billions of combinations! Typically everything is tested best and worst case in a car family and then interpolated between for your car’s individual specification. E.g So long as same engine / gearbox / software, BMW could test a poverty spec 520d saloon and a fully loaded 520d tourer.

Tinders · 2 Sep 2018 at 07:33

WLTP comes into force in the UK in 2019, so not that far away!

DaveyD · 2 Sep 2018 at 12:05

Tinders said:
WLTP comes into force in the UK in 2019, so not that far away!

It's in place from yesterday, and has been for certain types of cars since September 2017, but we're in transition period so UK wont start caring from a taxation for a couple more years.

Tinders · 2 Sep 2018 at 12:25

Sorry yes you are correct, it doesnt come into force proper till 2020, potentially crippling us company car drivers

Jonnycoupe · 2 Sep 2018 at 14:08

You mean RDE2 rather than WLTP? That’s in now with the diesel supplement and also VED tax bands. Which is crazy.

mattcrane · 3 Sep 2018 at 19:07

List of vehicles that have passed WLTP testing:
https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/umwelt-und-innovation/abgas/modelle_mit_euro_6d_temp/default.aspx

I have heard reports of 7+month delays on new orders.

Reports on another forum of one person being told by a salesman 9-10months on VW orders.

I am due to order my new car in next few months fortunately Toyota are on the ball with regards to WLTP and all there cars have been certified since Jan this year.