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Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by knowlton, 24 May 2011.

  1. doodah

    Capodecina

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,718

    Location: London

    Stop asking questions and make some profit!
     
  2. Street

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 17 Jan 2005

    Posts: 8,178

    Location: Liverpool

    Spend it before they realise.. Quick! :)
     
  3. LaLuna

    Associate

    Joined: 1 Dec 2018

    Posts: 4

    I am using it today, I hope they don't take it all back... XD
     
  4. Rotty

    Don

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 41,063

    Location: Notts

    Not matched betting but had a good one last week

    had Aubameyang and Son both to score and Sky let me cash out after Son had been taken off :p
     
  5. Hodders

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,540

    Location: Riding my bike

    Grrr, 6 2up bets on champions league and they all come in 0:0 or 1:0 except Dortmund who went 2 up far far too late.....

    Still in profit thanks to the free £50 bet I got given.
     
  6. doodah

    Capodecina

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,718

    Location: London

    Didn't get on the Porto game? I fancy Hoffenheim tonight with City's injury list and only needing a draw.
     
  7. Hodders

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,540

    Location: Riding my bike

    7 games in the Europa tonight - 3 get to 2:0 up and pay out at BM. Can one of the opposition score a goal - nope.

    Genk go 4-0 up, Sevilla go 3-0 up and villareal sit on a 2-0 lead all game after scoring the second in the TENTH minute.

    Could have been a great night. Plus the BM is slow enough paying out that there is no chance of getting on the 8pm matches.

    Oh well. £1000 total bets (all laid) QLs of only £25 so nothing to worry about.
     
  8. Hodders

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,540

    Location: Riding my bike

    Question for you experts.

    Running the 2up system. It would be nice to back both sides one at 365 and the other at PP and get a 2up payout whichever goes 2 up. But that then means laying both teams. Can use betxfair for the PP bet as that just gets your pp account closed.

    So I was looking a an approach based on dutching. Bet team 1 at 365, team 2 at pp and the draw at - say - will hill.

    The following image shows my system along with returns:

    [​IMG]

    For a total stake of £200 spread across the 3 outcomes balanced according to the odds so that each outcome pays out the same.

    The advantages of this system is that:

    1) You don't pay exchange commision
    2) Either team can go 2up and then draw/lose and you make a return
    3) Lower variance than just backing one team
    4) Three bets instead of 4 if you lay according to the usual back/lay method

    Downsides:
    1) Can't cash out if a team goes 2-0 and then 2-1
    2) Odds will generally be closer to 100% than using an exchange to lay so lower QLs

    Opinions ??
     
  9. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,380

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    You need the will hill golden goal too
     
  10. Royal Fleet

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 21 Nov 2007

    Posts: 1,064

    Location: Fleet, Hampshire

    I've run this a few times in simulation and I have normally found that the QL are greater doing the dutch than laying....but that is because I use an Exchange with zero commission. If you use a site like Profit Accumulator (which is good for finding offers and has some useful calculators on) they have promotions from some of the exchanges where you can use them with zero commission (I think they are looking for the liquidity that MB'ers bring).

    Normally an Exchange will reduce your held liability if you back two outcomes on the same event (as they can't both happen).

    In answer to your other point about not being able to cash out. You can manually do that by just further backing the team you have gone two up on. Effectively you re bet the money you know you have won to cover off your lay bet.
     
  11. Hodders

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,540

    Location: Riding my bike

    That makes a lot of sense.

    Always concerned a bit about the liquidity on smarkets. but a back bet makes sense.

    Are bookies going to gub accounts that back in-play a bet they have backed and gone 2-up on ?

    Would be so much easier if PP hadn't bought betfair.
     
  12. Royal Fleet

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 21 Nov 2007

    Posts: 1,064

    Location: Fleet, Hampshire

    Back it on the Exchange rather than the bookies. You will get better odds and no gubbing risk.
     
  13. Kanpai

    Mobster

    Joined: 19 Jun 2009

    Posts: 4,992

    Location: London

    I usually just lay both teams at Smarkets and if either goes 2 up I hit the trade out button which in effect cashes out your lay.
     
  14. Hodders

    Mobster

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 4,540

    Location: Riding my bike

    Have you ever been unable to cash out due to a lack of liquidity?

    I've looked at smarkets during some championship games and would not have been able to cash out (usually bet about £200)
     
  15. dowie

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: 29 Jan 2008

    Posts: 53,728

    I suspect a lot of their liquidity is actually provided by their own internal market making arm (or some entity owned by the same people that own the exchange).

    If you decide to take everything available on the bid/offer but betfair prices haven't moved then (assuming there is plenty of liquidity available on betfair for the same market) I doubt their prices are going to move much either. I'd assume they're just not showing much size - not checked this myself as I'm no longer interested in matched betting and they're not much use to me.
     
  16. Kanpai

    Mobster

    Joined: 19 Jun 2009

    Posts: 4,992

    Location: London

    Nope never had this situation as of yet.

    Having said that, I only do 2up on the bigger leagues (EPL/La Liga/Bundesliga/ Serie A)
     
  17. JHeaton

    Mobster

    Joined: 19 Dec 2009

    Posts: 2,669

    Location: Lancashire

    Been curious about this for a while now and started looking into it this weekend. Does anyone have some good resources for a beginner to get to grips with things? :)
     
  18. Yucca

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 20 Nov 2004

    Posts: 2,193

    Location: Nock/Leicester

    Id also be interested in this please. Is there a website that shows a step by step guide, FAQ's, tutorials and the best sign up bonus's etc?

    I have permission to set up accounts in my wife, mum, dad and sisters name as well as mine. So i figure if I smash all the sign up bonus's and refer a friend deals over the 5 of us I could make some great money in the first couple months? Not sure if id bother with it long term. Would depend on time required and the kind of returns id get.
     
  19. Diddums

    Capodecina

    Joined: 24 Oct 2012

    Posts: 21,100

    Location: London


    Drop me a trust, I'll hook you up :)
     
  20. shredgodxp

    Gangster

    Joined: 28 Mar 2006

    Posts: 104

    Started this in January 2018 - Just broke £7200 profit (and I don't hammer the offers either!) - To anyone unsure about starting, it's well worth it.