Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by knowlton, 24 May 2011.
Stop asking questions and make some profit!
Spend it before they realise.. Quick!
I am using it today, I hope they don't take it all back... XD
Not matched betting but had a good one last week
had Aubameyang and Son both to score and Sky let me cash out after Son had been taken off
Grrr, 6 2up bets on champions league and they all come in 0:0 or 1:0 except Dortmund who went 2 up far far too late.....
Still in profit thanks to the free £50 bet I got given.
Didn't get on the Porto game? I fancy Hoffenheim tonight with City's injury list and only needing a draw.
7 games in the Europa tonight - 3 get to 2:0 up and pay out at BM. Can one of the opposition score a goal - nope.
Genk go 4-0 up, Sevilla go 3-0 up and villareal sit on a 2-0 lead all game after scoring the second in the TENTH minute.
Could have been a great night. Plus the BM is slow enough paying out that there is no chance of getting on the 8pm matches.
Oh well. £1000 total bets (all laid) QLs of only £25 so nothing to worry about.
Question for you experts.
Running the 2up system. It would be nice to back both sides one at 365 and the other at PP and get a 2up payout whichever goes 2 up. But that then means laying both teams. Can use betxfair for the PP bet as that just gets your pp account closed.
So I was looking a an approach based on dutching. Bet team 1 at 365, team 2 at pp and the draw at - say - will hill.
The following image shows my system along with returns:
For a total stake of £200 spread across the 3 outcomes balanced according to the odds so that each outcome pays out the same.
The advantages of this system is that:
1) You don't pay exchange commision
2) Either team can go 2up and then draw/lose and you make a return
3) Lower variance than just backing one team
4) Three bets instead of 4 if you lay according to the usual back/lay method
1) Can't cash out if a team goes 2-0 and then 2-1
2) Odds will generally be closer to 100% than using an exchange to lay so lower QLs
You need the will hill golden goal too
I've run this a few times in simulation and I have normally found that the QL are greater doing the dutch than laying....but that is because I use an Exchange with zero commission. If you use a site like Profit Accumulator (which is good for finding offers and has some useful calculators on) they have promotions from some of the exchanges where you can use them with zero commission (I think they are looking for the liquidity that MB'ers bring).
Normally an Exchange will reduce your held liability if you back two outcomes on the same event (as they can't both happen).
In answer to your other point about not being able to cash out. You can manually do that by just further backing the team you have gone two up on. Effectively you re bet the money you know you have won to cover off your lay bet.
That makes a lot of sense.
Always concerned a bit about the liquidity on smarkets. but a back bet makes sense.
Are bookies going to gub accounts that back in-play a bet they have backed and gone 2-up on ?
Would be so much easier if PP hadn't bought betfair.
Back it on the Exchange rather than the bookies. You will get better odds and no gubbing risk.
I usually just lay both teams at Smarkets and if either goes 2 up I hit the trade out button which in effect cashes out your lay.
Have you ever been unable to cash out due to a lack of liquidity?
I've looked at smarkets during some championship games and would not have been able to cash out (usually bet about £200)
I suspect a lot of their liquidity is actually provided by their own internal market making arm (or some entity owned by the same people that own the exchange).
If you decide to take everything available on the bid/offer but betfair prices haven't moved then (assuming there is plenty of liquidity available on betfair for the same market) I doubt their prices are going to move much either. I'd assume they're just not showing much size - not checked this myself as I'm no longer interested in matched betting and they're not much use to me.
Nope never had this situation as of yet.
Having said that, I only do 2up on the bigger leagues (EPL/La Liga/Bundesliga/ Serie A)
Been curious about this for a while now and started looking into it this weekend. Does anyone have some good resources for a beginner to get to grips with things?
Id also be interested in this please. Is there a website that shows a step by step guide, FAQ's, tutorials and the best sign up bonus's etc?
I have permission to set up accounts in my wife, mum, dad and sisters name as well as mine. So i figure if I smash all the sign up bonus's and refer a friend deals over the 5 of us I could make some great money in the first couple months? Not sure if id bother with it long term. Would depend on time required and the kind of returns id get.
Drop me a trust, I'll hook you up
Started this in January 2018 - Just broke £7200 profit (and I don't hammer the offers either!) - To anyone unsure about starting, it's well worth it.
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