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Navi Rumours... should i really take these seriously?

Discussion in 'Graphics Cards' started by alex crossland, Dec 21, 2018.

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  1. alex crossland

    Associate

    Joined: Jul 4, 2017

    Posts: 69

    I've been in the market for a new GPU recently and I've been hearing rumblings the last few days about AMD revealing Navi at CES in January. I've no reason to doubt that, but part of the rumour has surrounded the price of the cards.

    The leaks seem to have come from vaguely reputable sources, but I just can't see how they are going to introduce a card that would beat the Vega 64 in performance for $250. if this is true then there is absolutely no point in even thinking about any other option, but I was going to see if I could pick something up in the sales, so if it isn't true and I wait ill be mighty ******!

    has anyone heard anything from any actual sources? or anything I've missed? what does everyone else think about this as a possibility? I understand that no one can k now for certain until the announcement, but people here seem to have more of a knowledge and insight so I thought I'd ask anyway!

    Ta.
     
  2. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,902

    The rumours are nonsense, as simple as that.
    Navi wont be launched at CES> AMD will be talking about 7nm Ryzen, 7nm Vega for compute, the new Polaris 590. They might give a slight hint of future 7nm Navi cards, but the launch wont be until after summer.

    AMD just released a Polaris 590 on 12nm. They will want that to have a 9-12 month life span minimum, and that is exactly the performance range Navi is going after.
     
  3. ANDREW GREEN

    Gangster

    Joined: Sep 17, 2018

    Posts: 314

    Firstly it isn't coming out in January and probably not for another 9 months or more. It probably won't even be showcased at the CES because AMD haven't booked a tech day.

    The initial price probably isn't realistic. That maybe the SRP but manufacturers and retailers will sell it for more because demand will be so high. I'd guess £300-350 and maybe more and it might be a year away.

    What card do you have now and what are your requirements?
     
  4. LePhuronn

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 26, 2010

    Posts: 3,628

    Location: Stoke-on-Trent

    Define "actual sources". AdoredTV's information came from "actual sources" which have been proven to be very accurate numerous times before. Kyle from HardOCP has "actual sources" confirming Jim's information as "pretty much spot on". But as for official announcements, that's what's supposed to be coming at CES.

    But why is beating a Vega 64 for $250 so outlandish an idea? That's what GTX 1080 performance should cost in 2019. Mining shot GPU prices through the roof, DRAM price fixing shot memory through the roof, retailers price gouging because of scaricty pushed prices even higher. And then Nvidia capitalised on the skewed perceptions of how much a graphics card should cost and came out with their ridiculous RTX prices.

    All of those prices in AdoredTV's video are about where things should be right now, but bear in mind that those prices are also probably AMD's recommended price for a reference board. By the time AIBs have made customer coolers, custom PCBs and everybody in the supply line has added their profit margin, the actual retail price won't be the same. But I can assure you that if you see a RX 3080 sell for £420 because it "competes with the RTX 2070" then it'll be the retailers gouging the hell out of prices.
     
  5. Satchfanuk

    Gangster

    Joined: Jun 24, 2016

    Posts: 351

    Location: Norfolk

    Why will AMD be talking about RX590, a card which is already available for a couple of months by the time CES comes around.

    I love the way you forcefully apply your personal opinions onto these discussion as if, through sheer belligerence, your point carries more weight.

    AdoredTV and HardOCP have both more or less corroborated the information leaked in Jim's video. While not cast in stone, I'd be far more inclined to believe them than you.

    An announcement at CES for Navi isn't out of the question but I can't see it launching for some time yet, maybe end of Q2 or thereabouts.
     
  6. LePhuronn

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 26, 2010

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    Location: Stoke-on-Trent

    I'm also not sure why AMD would be talking about Vega Instinct at the CONSUMER Electronics Show :rolleyes: and why bother talking about the stop-gap, wafer agreement filling token product that is the RX 590? It's already been out for a few months.

    It's pretty obvious that CES will be used to kick off the 2019 AMD hype train. I doubt we'll see any actual benchmarks or official numbers, but I'm pretty sure Lisa Su will hold up a pretty-looking Ryzen 7 3700X and say "look, it's a thing that actually exists!" and hold up a pretty-looking RX 3080 and say "look, it's another thing that actually exists!". And then we wait until April and September to actually buy them, as is always the case every single time.

    The only thing I'll agree with D.P. on is that this is a keynote, not a tech day or official release, so details will be few and far between.
     
  7. LoadsaMoney

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jul 8, 2003

    Posts: 26,935

    Location: In a house

    Its AMD, of course you shouldn't :D
     
  8. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,902

    They may or may not talk about the 590, but that is their latets release for consumers. You also have to sperate the keynote speach form what will ahppen at their booth. The 590 wont be mentioend in the keynote but liekly will be on show in their booth.

    When someone claims 1+1 = 5 I can use sheer beligerence to say they are wrong

    Adorded is wrong more often than he is right, often hilariously so.
    Otherwise I don't really know what actual content was released to speculate on. We all know at some point AMD will release a 7nm mainstream GPU. Fanciful pricing just shows how deluded the sources are
     
  9. ltron

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Aug 30, 2014

    Posts: 1,225

    Exactly, just because Nvidia are ripping us off that doesn't mean those prices are fair or justified. AMD would be crazy to follow suit as they are starving for market share. The only reason Nvidia can charge this much is because there is a lack of competition, if AMD released something great then those prices would be slashed before you know it.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018
  10. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,902

    Exactly how many times ahve you been to CES? Clearly you have no idea what CES is actually about, unless you think a consumer will be buying a prototype autonomous car or embdeed computer for industrial processes etc.

    Not a wafer agreement issue when it is produced at TSMC as well as GF. AMD simply don;t have that much to show off, Polar 590 is AMND's latest GPU release, of course it will be shown off in their booth, along with Vega 64 and the latest Ryzens.

    The main point is, AMD have just launched a new 590 at significant cost since it is on the new 12nm process. Therefore there is no Navi for another 6 to 9 months


    But you are basically agreeing with me. Navi wont be launched at CES is what I said. Maybe there will be some minor talk about Navi, AMD have already made official tlk of it and I would expect the same at CES. The OP seems to be asking about the release of NAvi to buy anytiem soon, and CES will offer nothing of the sort.
     
  11. ALXAndy

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Apr 23, 2010

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    AMD have done it before. GTX 470 and 480 were bob on as quick as a 970 and 980 respectively.

    I don't understand why, after all of this time, people doubt that AMD can make GPUs as quick as the 1070 and 1080 for Polaris money.

    Nvidia have been dragging their heels, which will have given AMD time to catch up. Why does every one think this is all so improbable.

    *shrugs*
     
  12. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,902


    No one has said that AMD have to follow what Nvidia has done, but there are realistic limits ot pricing if a profit ever wants to be made. AMD are not a charity, they cant sell a GPU at a loss. the 7nm process is very expensive. GDDR6 is expensive. R&D is sky-rocketing.

    Look at what cost Polaris 590 launched at. Navi on 7nm will be based on that pricing, but will be more expensive to produce
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018
  13. bakes0310

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 22, 2004

    Posts: 12,013

    Op just wait till January and go from there.
     
  14. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,902

    Except, Polaris was supposed to compete with Pascal, not Maxwell. Hardly very impressive you can barely completre with the competitors previous gen GPU.
     
  15. LePhuronn

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    The process that GloFo has been using to make Zen+ for a year and multiple sources have said it's almost as easy as a copy and paste because GloFo use their existing 14nm equipment? And a GPU that many people decried - including you I believe - that was literally nothing different except made on GloFo's 12nm?

    That's a lot of expense right there.

    But not if the yields, scalability and reusability is high, which is what the 7nm work is suggested to bring to the table.
     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2018
  16. ltron

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Aug 30, 2014

    Posts: 1,225

    I agree that the rumoured prices are probably too low, but I don't think it's by a large margin at all. I think they should do as they did with Ryzen, Intel were selling an 8 core CPU for $1000 and AMD came in at $3-500 with their answer to this. I feel they have significant leeway given Nvidia's current pricing, possible architectural improvements given the rumoured power consumption and they've done it before with the 4000 series.
     
  17. ALXAndy

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Apr 23, 2010

    Posts: 9,982

    Location: West Sussex

    I don't remember AMD saying any such thing. I do remember them saying (Raja) that they were working on a small GPU for mid range that would not compete with the Fury series and would not replace it.

    Half of the problem with PC gear is that people make things up, take them out of context (see sig) and then mix it all together. It then turns into "Well I saw it on the internet, must be legit".

    As for the price? if these dies are indeed as small as I think they are they will cost peanuts to produce. Mining has gone away again, AMD need to be realistic.

    TBH? other than sheer wonder there really is no point in talking about this stuff until it happens, as it's always 100% speculation and rumour. I clearly remember the myth going around just as the 480 was coming out that it was as fast as a 1080ti /roll eyes. It's amazing how much crap people can inject into things. Then of course you have loads of people taking it for gospel and believing it..

    Any way, I have put forward my opinion on it and how the rumours could possibly be credible, which doesn't leave much else to say on the matter :)
     
  18. ukxenon

    Hitman

    Joined: Jun 19, 2009

    Posts: 877

    as with anything new you should always wait till people you trust get hands on and post reviews
     
  19. Journey

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 5,394

    Location: West Midlands

    There's nothing stopping AMD releasing a card at $299 that would be priced at $649 by Nvidia. They have done it in the past when Nvidia launched the GTX 280 at $649, and the GTX 260 at $399, ATI (at the time) raised the bar on price vs. performance with the 4870 & 4850 at only $299 for a 4870, and $199 for the 4850. On average there was 5-10% performance delta at most, forcing Nvidia to drop their prices twice,

    If AMD want to do it they, can there is literally nothing stopping them making the mid-range market dominated by them, and leaving Nvida to sell RTX 2080 Ti's to those who want to pay 4x the cost for 'X' performance gain. Nvidia are stuck with massive 12nm RTX chips which I bet cost a heap of money more than a smaller 7nm die, which I am sure we might see a die shot of at CES.

    You can go back to your bickering now. ;) :D
     
  20. doody

    Gangster

    Joined: Dec 19, 2012

    Posts: 135

    got my £250 ready