North Korea

How about this..

SK/US up military presence/activity in area, a jet "accidentally" stray into NK territory, is fired upon, and this is used as justification for "self defense" action, triggering an escalation, and devastating local conflict.

US denies straying into NK territory, and claims it was provoked over friendly air-space as an act of war.
 
I'll really start to worry when SK starts moving everyone north of Seoul, south.

That is probably the surest sign of war prior to the act of initiating it through violence or declaration.
 
I think it's pretty obvious what's happening now, (not that I'm any kind of expert)

NK have gone so far down the path of developing nuclear armament, they're now seem to be 90-95% of the way towards having a device they can put on a missile - there's no way on earth, not with sanctions, not with threats that they're going to suddenly abandon it.

They're going to put a device on a missile as fast as they possibly can, and show it off as quickly as possible - as soon as they do that, it changes the dynamic on all sides, it wouldn't surprise me if they test it above ground so everyone can see it?

Once they have a functioning ICBM, and probably many more to quickly follow - in my eyes they're totally untouchable.
 
Roar87 said:
Russia and China are utterly pathetic as they have always been when it comes to being effective members of the UN security council. The only option left at this point is tactical nuclear strikes on North Korea, there isn't any other effective way to deal with them.
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Russia have been campaigning for tougher actions on NK for years, it's the US who have been more interested in talk (and China who have been against everything).
 
No military action can be taken against North Korea militarily without inflicting a storm of artillery on Seoul and the border region of South Korea. NK reportedly have 700 artillery pieces near the border with 20-30 mile range into SK. Kill the top brass you can bet they have orders to keep firing until they run out of ammo. You would by proxy be inflicting massive death and destruction on a close long term ally. Not Happening.

Persuading some General to have coup, probably a better option, still massively risky.
 
PlacidCasual said:
Persuading some General to have coup, probably a better option, still massively risky.
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Trump could just put a hundred million dollar bounty on his head, problem would be solved in under 24hrs, would be cheaper than a war, SK could then work with the new leader (who would be keen to avoid the same fate) on reintegration.

Of course that's too "extreme" a solution for liberals to stomach.
 
I see they are indeed planning another missile launch soon

There really are some huge idiots in this world

also

South Korea currently has two of the US' Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launchers and said it would now install another four.

The presence of the THAAD system has infuriated China.

Why?
 
PlacidCasual said:
No military action can be taken against North Korea militarily without inflicting a storm of artillery on Seoul and the border region of South Korea. NK reportedly have 700 artillery pieces near the border with 20-30 mile range into SK. Kill the top brass you can bet they have orders to keep firing until they run out of ammo. You would by proxy be inflicting massive death and destruction on a close long term ally. Not Happening.

Persuading some General to have coup, probably a better option, still massively risky.
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Most of it is actually out of range, Seoul is 40 miles away from the border, with a speedy evacuation you'd limit casualties as they're already at the limit of their range
 
I don't think ANY nuclear armed country would be particularly happy about having a system like that installed near them when it is not under their control. More so when it is under the control of countries who held an abrasive relationship in the past.
 
Roar87 said:
Most of it is actually out of range, Seoul is 40 miles away from the border, with a speedy evacuation you'd limit casualties as they're already at the limit of their range
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So the destruction of the country isn't an issue?
 
Roar87 said:
Most of it is actually out of range, Seoul is 40 miles away from the border, with a speedy evacuation you'd limit casualties as they're already at the limit of their range
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Yeah much of the 1000s of pieces they have on the border would need to be moved up some distance into the DMZ to hit Seoul.

IIRC ~450 out of that 700 (about 3% of their total artillery on the border) can hit Seoul which would let them land about 7000 shells an hour, the rest has 100s of thousands of South Koreans in range even so :s further compounded by the supposed roll out of a longer range MRLS system in the last few weeks (which the recent 3 shorter range missiles were supposedly a final testing of).
 
Tons both in material and social cost (i.e. starvation) - their whole society is built around a military first principle.
 
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