North Korea

[IronWarrior]

The artillery wouldn't last long, we likely talking a few minutes of fire before counter-batteries from South Korea starts taking them out.

But that's if North Korea fires first, if SK and US decide to attack first, it be a other Highway of Death among the North Korean border.

 

[Malevolence]

I'll post this again.

https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/

 

[Rroff]

The artillery wouldn't last long, we likely talking a few minutes of fire before counter-batteries from South Korea starts taking them out.

But that's if North Korea fires first, if SK and US decide to attack first, it be a other Highway of Death among the North Korean border.

That is why tactics like mentioned in that article Malevolence linked would be used by NK - typically the artillery will fire in waves while being moved in and out of cover to reduce attrition and utilising reverse slopes of berms, etc. to reduce vulnerability to ground based counter battery fire as it has to be much more precisely placed.

EDIT: The article also reckons NK attrition to counter battery fire will be 1% per hour.

 

[glenimp617]

http://news.sky.com/story/n-korea-threats-will-be-met-by-massive-military-response-us-warns-11019780

is China talking absolute drivel?

 

[Marky]

http://news.sky.com/story/n-korea-threats-will-be-met-by-massive-military-response-us-warns-11019780

is China talking absolute drivel?

 

[SPG]

That is why tactics like mentioned in that article Malevolence linked would be used by NK - typically the artillery will fire in waves while being moved in and out of cover to reduce attrition and utilising reverse slopes of berms, etc. to reduce vulnerability to ground based counter battery fire as it has to be much more precisely placed.

EDIT: The article also reckons NK attrition to counter battery fire will be 1% per hour.

Aside from what is located in the NK tunnel network every cm of the ground will be in hi-res mapping linked to state of the art satellite network NK would get 4 or 5 salvos off before being decimated.

The best thing we can hope for is for China to pull the plug on the oil pipeline and the regime will fail, then replaced with something more controllable for China.

 

[Puzzled]

http://news.sky.com/story/n-korea-threats-will-be-met-by-massive-military-response-us-warns-11019780

is China talking absolute drivel?

For all we know NK may be listening to China, obviously hasn't stopped them but may have restrained some of their actions.

If China cuts them off completely then NK may become even more unstable. Considering the outcome of military action perhaps having them stay on talking terms isn't such a bad idea.

 

[Craig1981]

Can the US even afford to cut off trade with China? The cost to import and export would be staggering.

 

[Avenged7Fold]

is Trump talking absolute drivel?

Yes.

Starving or choking NK trade has never done anything to slow down their nuclear development and it only seems to immediately punish the civilians rather than government or military.

It's an empty threat at best, do you really think the US will cut off trading with China over NK?

At worst it is clumsy, misdirected political strong arming. China have stayed out of the conflict and have opposed any violence as well as the nuclear testing. China and NK have not had a good relationship since Un took over. The issue with the threat is that the US continues to treat China as an enemy in NK-SK relations.

This threat has only makes Chinese and US relations a little frosty and achieves nothing else. Not productive at all.

 

[Rroff]

Aside from what is located in the NK tunnel network every cm of the ground will be in hi-res mapping linked to state of the art satellite network NK would get 4 or 5 salvos off before being decimated.

The best thing we can hope for is for China to pull the plug on the oil pipeline and the regime will fail, then replaced with something more controllable for China.

The expected attrition rate is ~150 units an hour - so even if they had enough intel to focus on the most dangerous long range pieces (which are also coincidentally the most mobile and capable of relocating quickly) it would still take around 4 hours to silence those which would allow for around 15-17K shells to be fired by them in the mean time.

At worst it is clumsy, misdirected political strong arming.

I suspect this - China are about the only other way this "could" be resolved without massive SK/US military action (they are in a much better position to run infiltration, etc. missions than the US) but they are reluctant to do anything. The US is probably trying to engineer the circumstances so that China has to but its more likely to backfire.

 

[Orionaut]

The best thing we can hope for is for China to pull the plug on the oil pipeline and the regime will fail, then replaced with something more controllable for China.

The Norks have vast (And very high quality) coal reserves. I am somewhat surprised that they do not manufacture synthetic fuels as an alternative to imported Oil. Coal to Liquids is very old tech and not particularly complicated and would be right in line with Nork economic ideology too.

 

[IronWarrior]

Can the US even afford to cut off trade with China? The cost to import and export would be staggering.

Hey that works both ways.

 

[Rroff]

The Norks have vast (And very high quality) coal reserves. I am somewhat surprised that they do not manufacture synthetic fuels as an alternative to imported Oil. Coal to Liquids is very old tech and not particularly complicated and would be right in line with Nork economic ideology too.

IIRC they do but only very small quantities - mostly they smuggle crude IIRC and then resell the refined product.

EDIT: Not something I know anything about but quick google suggests that coking coal is better for producing liquid fuel while NK has large quantities of Anthracite coal.

 

[Nasher]

I bet China would allow the US to steamroll NK if the US said they would leave SK once they were defeated.

 

[Malevolence]

South Korea says it has seen indications that the North is preparing more missile launches, possibly an intercontinental ballistic missile.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41144356

Anyone want to offer the odds on this 'test' being intercepted and destroyed?

 

[Rroff]

I don't get what the Swiss think they are going to achieve with their offers of mediation and "peacekeeper" forces - its fairly plain NK's ambitions go beyond concerns for the country or regime stability and they are pursuing WMD goals with half an eye to some future ideal of where they can "retake" the peninsula while holding the US at bay with the threat - for the last couple of years they've shown no interest in shelving development in return for loosening of sanctions or reception of aid, etc. which they were more open to in former times probably because it was less of a setback to their programs to outwardly appear to be going along with those things.

 

[SPG]

5-1 Against.

No need to show your technological hand and even then its not a 100% success which would only fuel the Norks even more.

 

[Rroff]

Yeah unless they are 100% sure its an actual offensive launch and/or at risk of crashing down in a population area they won't want to show their hand or more embarrassingly if they try to intercept and fail.

 

[The Running Man]

I don't understand why the US haven't intercepted all the missiles fired so far tbh.

 

[PlacidCasual]

Probably because it's really difficult and when it doesn't work very well all those untold billions will look like a right waste of money on a paper tiger.