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Outlook for the economy in 2010 and beyond

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by dirtydog, Jan 3, 2010.

  1. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    U

    Well, actually, you can. A lot of countries do it. It's probably not sustainable long term, but you can use it to grow for a while and then change when it becomes untenable.
    If you produce more internally and it's all consumed internally, you'be still grown.
    Most developed countries have run a spending deficit for the vast majority of the past century. The UK has barely ever run a surplus in living memory. The trick is to grow your economy (or inflate your currency) faster than the debt piles up. You're somewhat right in that if you do pile the debt too high it'll come tumbling down, but we're not there yet and our debt:GDP even now after years of heavy deficits aren't far removed from comparable countries.
     
  2. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    Yes, agreed, but that's not really the fault of having a benefits system. I have been concerned about the number of British (or at least nominally British) firms getting swallowed up by foreign conglomerates these past several years. Hell, I work for one such company right now.
    Actually, you're probably right, apologies on that one.
     
  3. q974739

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 4, 2009

    Posts: 617

    Small near term prediction. Jitters for last quarter caused by flooding.

    Labour and co will blame mismanagement.
     
  4. Judgeneo

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 15, 2010

    Posts: 10,013

    Location: Out of Coventry

    So Interest Rates are probably going to rise in 2015 according to the BoE.

    Good news for the UK probably, but annoying for me as today I got my first pay check I'll actually be able to start saving from.
     
  5. Von Smallhausen

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Aug 1, 2004

    Posts: 12,584

    Location: Tyneside

    Labour don't have much credibility when it comes to arguing over mismanagement.
     
  6. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 17,441

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Given that the Tories cut the flood defence budget as one of their first acts so, in this case, they probably have a point.
     
  7. q974739

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 4, 2009

    Posts: 617

    I'd argue that - the reports of dredging not being done for decades is, I'd imagine, a bigger problem. Further, isn't the Environment Agency run by an ex-Labour minister?
     
  8. q974739

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 4, 2009

    Posts: 617

    No, they don't - but they will anyway.
     
  9. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 17,441

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    But, as repeatedly pointed out by people who actually know what they're doing and ignored by people who don't, dredging is an expensive and largely ineffective approach to flood management. Most likely it would simply have relocated where flooded.

    Possibly. But the Environment Agency have done really pretty well through the flooding so it doesn't seem so bad.
     
  10. Pinkribbonscars

    Hitman

    Joined: Dec 30, 2005

    Posts: 902

    Location: Calgary

    Indeed. In a shocking turn of events, it appears that governments of all colours are incompetent!
     
  11. Baron C

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jul 10, 2012

    Posts: 1,452

    Location: So where?

    Really, and there was me thinking that governments were full of Geniuses.

    There was a programme on BbC the other week, detailing the current state of the Chinese economy, not looking too healthy over there by its account.

    My business partner got back from China after a 6month stint and confirmed similar scenario.
     
  12. V F

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 13, 2003

    Posts: 15,900

    Location: UK

     
  13. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,597

    Location: Peoples Republic of Histonia, Cambridge

    There's also quite an interesting article I read the other day suggesting the Chines are the ones who "fooled" Peston.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/23/a-lesson-in-propaganda-how-china-fooled-the-bbc-the-new-york-times-and-other-wishful-thinkers/

    You have to ask yourself, would the Chines authorities allow such are damning documentary to be made on Chinese soil if there weren't an ulterior motive?
     
    Last edited: Mar 12, 2014
  14. Slam62

    Soldato

    Joined: Jan 3, 2006

    Posts: 7,302

    Location: Monaco

    The man who wrote that article has an agenda as well.

    So by his own argument why should I believe him.

    He doesn't really state much in the way of hard fact.

    Either way, it doesn't matter.

    Back to the UK economy , I find it interesting that we appear to have created another even bigger house price bubble.
     
  15. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,471

    Yes the proliferation of 110% self certifying mortgages truly is a concern. Did the banks not learn anything?
     
  16. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,888

    Location: Vvardenfell


    Yes, they learned that "too big to fail" is real. And they learned that the government will always bail them out.
     
  17. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,471

    The economy is a massive ponzi scheme with effectively unlimited amounts of money feeding it so the pyramid just gets bigger effectively forever.
     
  18. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,471

    Why would any economy with access to unlimited money allow their banks to fail?
     
  19. El Capitano

    Mobster

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    Posts: 2,577

    Conflating a ponzi scheme with a pyramid scheme is not going to make you look informed.
     
  20. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,888

    Location: Vvardenfell


    If you are talking about the ability of governments to print money, you might want to read up on the consequences of that. And economics.