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Outlook for the UK economy in 2015 (and beyond)

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Mr Jack, May 13, 2015.

  1. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,672

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Now the election has passed I figured it was worth starting up a new thread to discuss the UK economy.

    Three pieces of news today:

    1. The UK economy is now growing more slowly than the Eurozone as a whole at 0.3% compared to 0.4% in the last quarter.

    2. The Bank of England has cut it's growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.6%

    3. The US Senate has acted to block easy passage for the TTIP.

    The forecast just looks hopelessly optimistic given the first point. In any case, I expect a sharp downturn in the UK economy if Osborne sticks to anything like his pre-election economic plans and I expect he'll want to get the pain in early so I think the first budget will really hurt the economy.

    The 3rd point may or may not be good for the economy in the long term but is clearly excellent political news. In the shorter term I think it might hit investment or share prices slightly but probably not to any great degree.
     
  2. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 18,083

    Lol, funny how TTIP gets knocked back first in the states of all places.
     
  3. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,446

    The economy tends to hold its breath a bit in the months before an election because no one knows wtf will happen and is a bad idea to invest in anything.

    Carry on with the arm flapping though.
     
  4. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 46,401

    Location: Plymouth

    Lovely cherry picking in the opening post. How does eurozone growth compare to the uk if you don't just look in just the quarter running up to the uncertainty of a general election? (Hint, you picked the one quarter in about the last 4 years or so where the eurozone outperformed the uk)

    How about how the growth forecast for their uk compares to others (hint, eurozone just got upgraded to 1.5%).

    I know you suck at impartiality normally, but this is a particular peak in dishonest presentation.
     
  5. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    It's far too early to tell whether this is an anomaly or part of a bigger trend.
     
  6. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,446

    Internet is full of Lefties picking convenient stats at the mo...

    Everyone's a Russell Brand fan now apparently.
     
  7. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,672

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    We're talking about the outlook not what went before*, do you not think the most recent data is the most relevant to that? We've seen a decline on two consecutive quarters now.

    I don't see much reason to have faith in the outlooks, they've not exactly got the best track record of success and the UK is hardly looking sturdy on the latest data.

    * - Even if we were your hint would be complete gibberish; the UK economy has out-performed the Eurozone in the last year or two, not over the last four years.
     
  8. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,672

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    I entirely agree. That seems like a sensible point for discussion.
     
  9. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,672

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    There's no evidence of that in quarterly GDP growth data across the past few elections. I guess you could argue that this was a more uncertain election, so it might have had a stronger effect. We'll see when the next quarter of data emerges.
     
  10. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 46,401

    Location: Plymouth

    Eurozone growth

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

    Uk growth

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

    Change the date range as needed.

    Looking at growth forecasts is certainly useful, even when they don't fit the narrative you are making up.

    Likewise looking at history is also useful if you are constructing an honest narrative. Outlooks do not occur in isolation to history.

    My outlook is that you will continue to predict doom, continue to be wrong and continue to lie about the outcomes to hide it.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2015
  11. Bear

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 24, 2002

    Posts: 12,211

    Location: Bucks and Edinburgh

    I agree with that, him and Scorza :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2015
  12. scorza

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 22, 2004

    Posts: 26,685

    Location: Deep England

    Agreed but I do have a slight concern about the UK's dreadful productivity figures. I think addressing this should be the chanellor's main priority for this parliament, even though there probably aren't any votes i it.

    Nah I've made all my predictions in the election thread. I'll just pop up and say hi when the news shows my predictions were correct. Put me on ignore if it annoys you, I'll get over it.
     
  13. Lytton

    Hitman

    Joined: Oct 25, 2014

    Posts: 563

    Kinda rich, like.
     
  14. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,672

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Huh. Okay I was wrong on that, while the UK's growth was pretty dire in 2011/12 the Eurozone was worst. Both of course spring from the same economic error.

    What like the forecast I linked in the OP? That forecast. Come on, Dolph, you have to be pretty desperate to pretend I'm hiding it.

    I've been right so far and despite your assertion I've yet to lie once to hide it. You may not like the fact that the latest economic data isn't looking good but that doesn't make it a 'lie'.
     
  15. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,787

    Location: Vvardenfell


    I agree, but how? No-one even knows what is causing it, with most people flinging out guesses which entirely coincidentally agree with their particular economic bias. One commentator I was reading recently is probably correct that whole series of factors are involved. A proper discussion of the topic is urgently required. But expect the government to simply say that it will rise a result of their current economic policies, while failing to convince as to why.
     
  16. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,787

    Location: Vvardenfell



    Good job the Right never cherry-picks stats though, eh - we can obviously rely on them for completely unbiased economics.
     
  17. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    Actually, there's quite a lot of figures around the productivity problem. There's evidence to suggest labour is cheap so investment is low, or that Britain's bosses are pretty damn rubbish. Of course, some people here and in government will continue to blame the lazy workforce, but will they have any data to back themselves up?
     
  18. Lytton

    Hitman

    Joined: Oct 25, 2014

    Posts: 563

    Fortunately we've got bizarrely draconian anti-strike laws coming in to place, which far from bringing us in line with the rest of Europe, are actually going to rank us amongst the strictest. So much for the government not meddling in things.
     
  19. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    Welcome to the Tory majority.
     
  20. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,787

    Location: Vvardenfell

    Your three links are the same website, and thus have the same bias. I happen to agree with some of what he writes, but there's likely to be more to it than that. But at the root of it probably is one of his theories: that the feeling amongst many workers that the link between productivity and wage rises has been broken by managers. The stick (threats of redundancy) now outweigh the carrot (overtime) so the workforce simply does an unofficial work-to-rule. Why work any harder if there's no reward for it?