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Outlook for the UK economy in 2015 (and beyond)

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Mr Jack, May 13, 2015.

  1. platypus

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jul 25, 2003

    Posts: 38,971

    Location: Rhône-Alpes+Cambridge

    UKIP certainly gave a platform for all of the haters of immigrants to come together, that much is certain.
     
  2. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,453

    Question. Have you ever had Roma let their kid take a dump on your doorstep?

    Bins rifled through and tipped over nightly?

    Gangs of kids singing in a foreign language outside your house at 2am?

    Mass brawls involving gangs of foreign speakers a regular occurrence?

    Streets literally covered in gobbed out sesame seeds.

    Foreign kids using the local park as a toilet?

    Buckets of vomit left in the street?

    Back alleys constantly fly tipped, like daily.

    I can go on.

    You might want to at least try to understand why some feel the immigration system isn't working
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2016
  3. Vonhelmet

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 28, 2005

    Posts: 48,109

    Location: On the hoods

    That doesn't at all counter the point being made. Besides, I doubt most ukip voters have experienced any of that either.
     
  4. robfosters

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 1, 2010

    Posts: 31,017

    Location: Welling, London

    Quick basic economy question as it's never been a strong point of mine. There's an article on BBC about the price of fish and veg imports going up. For example, a box of wholesale tomatoes has gone from around £4 to £6.

    If imports are more expensive, does it not force more businesses to buy from within Britain, thereby boosting the economy in farming and fishing etc?
     
  5. Jokester

    Don

    Joined: Aug 7, 2003

    Posts: 38,843

    Location: Aberdeenshire

    It makes British producers more competitive but by and large UK producers just don't exist for a lot of products these days and the costs to entry for a new business tends to mean they won't spring up to fill their place.
     
  6. robfosters

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 1, 2010

    Posts: 31,017

    Location: Welling, London

    I agree with that for certain products, but surely we can grow pretty much every veg that you see in supermarkets. Fruits, not so much. You ain't growing pineapples in Sunny Yorkshire :p
     
  7. Jokester

    Don

    Joined: Aug 7, 2003

    Posts: 38,843

    Location: Aberdeenshire

    This year?
     
  8. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 9,313

    They did not. The economy was booming and had been for a few years and we sucked in people to do jobs our own would not. This is a trend that has repeated since WW2. People seem to have forgotten the time when they could get a Polish plumber for much less than a British one and have it done quicker or a lot of other trades(which Brits don't want to do anymore). When The last lot of EU countries joined EU countries could have transitional arrangements to stop an influx from these countries. Germany did. Guess who didn't? Then we blame them for coming here. Own goal.

    When the inevitable slump came we blamed the immigrants like we did in the 60, 70's etc, etc, etc.
     
  9. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,453

    They don't need to, all they need experience is talking to someone who has or someone who knows someone who has and so on. If you live in a a non affluent area of the UK you can be rightfully concerned that your street is destined to be the next warring Eastern European enclave if your council suddenly decides that is the best way to solve the problem of being forced to take their share of people that they have no idea what to do with.

    My town massively voted leave because of the problems affecting some of the communities within it for instance.

    We've had immigration for decades and whilst it's not always been smooth sailing the problems have never been acute as they are now.

    Most people are protective over the environment they live in and know. They don't want to see it changed forever, especially when they weren't consulted and the change is forced upon them. These people whom idiots dismiss their problems as racist are pushing back and starting to get heard.

    I don't think I've ever spoken to someone who thinks all immigration is bad, ever.
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2016
  10. datalol-jack

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

    Posts: 6,178

    I'm on the sauce, so apologies in advance if I make total hash of explaining competitive advantage. :p Suppose we've got the UK and Italy producing tomatoes and widgets with inherent advantages, and suppose we've got bilateral trade. At an intuitive level, we can reduce our relationship to the following table:

    Code:
    T    W
    
    1   1/2  UK
    
    1/4  2   ITALY
    
    
    Where each number is the number of units of our industrial output it'd cost to produce each item per unit of time. Our and Italian producers can switch or do both types of production. At a glance, we can see that for the UK it makes sense to put resources into widgets; sell widgets to Italy; and use units thus acquired to purchase tomatoes in the Italian market; for Italy the reverse makes sense. Given we trade, our producers will converge to optimise this arrangement.

    Things get more complicated if you want to get the above to represent anything like the real world, but the basic idea remains more or less the same. The cost going up in the examples could be anything happening like tariffs going up, currency wars, bad harvests, striking workers, plague, or whatever. If few or no producers take up tomato production, or it still remains relatively noncompetitive for whatever reason, you keep importing at a higher cost. Any new information re prices and adjustments also takes time to propagate through the markets.
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2016
  11. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,453

    Why do you think they don't exist in the first place? I grew up on a farm. Farmers will produce whatever makes money, they tend to be industrious like that.

    Some farmers currently don't produce much because they are being paid not to.
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2016
  12. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 9,313

    If anything needs reform it is the CAP, producing massive amounts of food that we pay to grow, then pay to store the excess then pay to destroy. Far too much farming than is required.
     
  13. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 32,198

    Location: Co Durham

    To a degree but you just cant grow the tomatoes as well in the uk as the MED purely for the fact we just dont get the sunshine.

    And there is only a limited amount of very fertile land in the uk for some crops and if we arent growing 100% that we can grow of the stuff we import anyway if farmers move away from those crops to other ones because they have got more expensive then the original crops will go up in price.

    Overall and no way of getting away from it, food prices are going to rise and rapidly.

    Most experts state imported food will be 10% more expensive next year and that accounts for just over 50% of all food bought so an average inflation of 5% for people's food shopping.

    Then once subsidies stop for farmers and isnt replaced (?) the price of uk grown food will increase as well..
     
  14. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,453

    The British tomatoe growers association blame the previously high value of the pound for the fact we got flooded with cheap imports funnily enough.

    First page of their website.

    Whilst the economy rebalances we should expect a spike in prices for some things. As prices rise this encourages businesses to look to fill demand to take advantage of the increased prices then competition should normalise prices again.

    If we do manage to leave the EU I think some will be pleasantly surprised at what our country is capable of producing but has been stifled out of bothering to do so.

    Prices going up isn't a bad thing if wages rise too, extra demand in our economy for home made produce should help stimulate that too.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2016
  15. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 32,198

    Location: Co Durham

    They dont taste as nice though :p
     
  16. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,453

    I'd beg to differ!
     
  17. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,539

    Just GE dem Tomatoes into submission.
     
  18. dalehitchy1

    Perma Banned

    Joined: Sep 6, 2011

    Posts: 1,726

    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  19. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 32,198

    Location: Co Durham

    Wow she is going to be so much trouble.
     
  20. Caged

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 23,241

    Imagine if the government had decided to keep people informed instead of leaving it to newspapers to extrapolate from shorthand notes accidentally displayed to cameras.