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Outlook for the UK economy in 2015 (and beyond)

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Mr Jack, May 13, 2015.

  1. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 30,180

    Location: Co Durham

    Agreed. I wouldn't say its 100% on the Guardians conclusion we wont stay in the single market, you could read it as we won't be offered it (without freedom of movement). It still might mine thats what we take as its best for the country.

    And of course you have to consider all the other options.
     
  2. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,409

    This has happened too many times. Probably staged.
     
  3. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,035

    Location: Cambridge

    If this is genuine, as in not a deliberate leak, it's terrifying. Not solely because it concludes that single market membership is unlikely. Primarily because it shows that government thinking is no more advanced than an internet forum.

    A "senior Conservative official" should not need to write these things down. It's like she's been taking notes at a Brexit for Dummies evening course.

    Possibly, but I'm struggling to understand why.
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  4. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,737

    Location: Vvardenfell


    Source? To the best of my knowledge the various lakes/mountains etc have long gone. The EU stores a certain amount of stuff, but just enough to stabilise prices.

    That's not to say that the CAP couldn't still do with tweaking (it still pays farmers to tear out woodland, and subsidises grouse moors) but it's much better than it was.

    Not to mention the fact that the farmers will be one of the groups that a Brexit of any flavour will bribe with pretty much the deal the EU gives them now.
     
  5. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,035

    Location: Cambridge

    Agreed.
     
  6. dalehitchy1

    Perma Banned

    Joined: Sep 6, 2011

    Posts: 1,726

    I know. It's embarrassing. That fact that she wrote "have cake and eat it" ......... -_- A level students would have put more thought into brexit than this government has
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  7. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,409

    "Accidentally" letting it slip that all options are being considered.
     
  8. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,035

    Location: Cambridge

    Or, maybe it's a rope-a-dope.

    Let them think their negotiating with imbeciles, then... hmm

    hey guys... guys?
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2016
  9. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,035

    Location: Cambridge

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/28/rate-hike-now-would-cost-200000-jobs-says-bank-england-policymaker/

    Scary stuff. The country is in a total economic straightjacket. We can't borrow, we can't pay back, we can't raise rates, we can't lower rates.

    Almost any change in our current circumstance will be extremely hard for the authorities to manage.
     
  10. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,409

    Some of you young uns make me laugh, freaking out over 2.5% inflation and nearly zero interest rates.
     
  11. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 30,180

    Location: Co Durham

    Yeah imagine how they would cope with 18% inflation and 15% interest like we had.

    Thing is that tool is taken away from government now. People on the over sized mortgages today couldn't afford 15% mortgage rates and the whole housing market would collapse. I mean a mortgage of £200k the monthly repayments would increase from £900 a month to £2700 a month.

    Masses of repossessions and the housing market would collapse. In fact there is a surprising number of house owners who couldn't cope if interest rates went back up to 6% never mind 15%
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2016
  12. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,409

    We have a generation who now think near zero interest and 1% inflation is the norm, can't see beyond it and have set their lifestyle around it.

    That's the scary thing. Rude awakening incoming methinks.
     
  13. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 16,356

    At least with 18% inflation you could actually save.

    No point at the current level and that's the governments fault, can't complain when noone has money because its 100 times easier to just have it as cheap debt.
     
  14. Slam62

    Soldato

    Joined: Jan 3, 2006

    Posts: 7,114

    Location: Monaco

    Yep, if it wasn't so tragic it would be funny,

    One thing is for sure, things never stay the same and they can't go much lower.
     
  15. Slam62

    Soldato

    Joined: Jan 3, 2006

    Posts: 7,114

    Location: Monaco

    Yes but you may at some point have to pay it back.

    Funny thing is, the positive bits of the OBR forecast rely on household debt significantly increasing.
     
  16. scorza

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 22, 2004

    Posts: 26,685

    Location: Deep England

    Saving is the last thing you want to do when you have high inflation. Need to invest in the things that are inflating like property. Plus ca change...
     
  17. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 16,356

    Woops, i meant Interest rates.
     
  18. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

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    Location: Lincs

    It's been 6 years, so hardly a "generation" :rolleyes:

    And you can't directly compare the economic situations of then and now. The cost of living in those days was low enough for a single average earner to manage to run a house and family, and even though when interest rates spiked up during the 80's it was painful but not catastrophic like it would be today.

    As pointed out the issue is they have lost control of these economic levers to control the economy.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2016
  19. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 13,982

    Location: Lincs

    As long as wages went up by the 18% as well, then we would cope better, but funnily enough I can see the inflation incoming only affecting prices in the shops and not incomes...

    I don't have a lot of sympathy for people who have stretched themselves to the limit to buy their house who couldn't cope with a reasonable rise in interest rates, and I would class 5-6% as reasonable.

    On the other hand I think banks also have responsibility in this by their irresponsible lending as much as personal responsibility on irresponsible borrowing

    So it seems as always, the responsible people who did the right thing get shafted because we have to protect everyone else who were just profligate
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2016
  20. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

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    Location: Cambridge

    It's not only the rates which are "freaky", it's our inability to deal with change/shocks.

    Nope. Inflation makes exports more expensive. 18% would tank UK exports in a year or two.

    Even the target rate of 2% is probably a bit too high in a world where all our major export partners have ultra low inflation.

    The world has fundamentally changed.

    That's pretty much any first time buyer in the last 3-4 years. If you didn't stretch, you didn't get a house/flat/shed/box.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2016