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Outlook for the UK economy in 2015 (and beyond)

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Mr Jack, May 13, 2015.

  1. StriderX


    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 17,984

    Theres a lot of wasted money in nouveau-silicon valley type firms at the moment, when that bubble inevitably collapses, it'll take some pension funds with it aswell as deeply expose anyone who may have relied on some pointless bit of tech that made a job mildly easier.
  2. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 61,479

    Could that possibly be that some are foreseeing a really bad crash and stockpiling money, even if it means potentially selling [an advantage] for short term losses, to pick over the carcasses ?
  3. Tefal

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: Jun 30, 2007

    Posts: 66,441

    Location: Wales

    This may sound a little silly but aren't we always?

    I mean on the scale of a decade or so each new one is radically differnt economically than the one that came before it because rhebworld changes so much.
  4. Freakbro


    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 14,432

    Location: Lincs

    I'm not sure what it means tbh

    As a general answer to both quotes, I don't know enough of macro economics to comment specifically, but I am interested, hence I like to ask questions in here and hope someone sheds some light sometimes....not been happening lately though.

    In respect to Tefals question, not sure I would break it into such small chunks as a decade, as the economic system we have been using for the last 30-40 years has been Neo-Liberal free market ideology and as much as that has promoted growth, the systemic flaws (as all systems have) do seem to be ignored for short term gain over long term stability. And what I meant about being in uncharted economic waters is that the "rules" of our current economic system are just not working or responding to real world events in the way the theory predicts they should.

    There was a good interview with a World Bank representative recently, even he was saying how the Reagan/Thatcher 'trickle down economics' hasn't worked, as the growth and wealth it has created has gone upwards, benefiting the few over the many and has caused inherent instability in the system.

    Also quite interesting was how they have analysed countries investments/Govt spending across the world and correlated it with the countries growth/wealth generation and it found, pretty much without fail, that the best ROI a country can get is when you invest in the people. Govt's like to spend on large infrastructure projects, a new port, a new airport, a new rail line etc etc but spend that money on improving education and healthcare of a nation and that's the biggest driver in a countries development.
  5. Freakbro


    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 14,432

    Location: Lincs

    Another article savaging of our current Neoliberal economic system and I don't disagree with a lot of what he says here

    Britain fell for a neoliberal con trick – even the IMF says so

  6. RedvGreen


    Joined: Dec 2, 2009

    Posts: 3,383

    Location: Midlands

    It's a big shame. The one slight shining light is that there is some interest in bringing services back to the Government (or at least that is what Labour are spouting at the moment).
  7. doodah


    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 19,387

    Location: London

    So our descent into a small island nation is nearing completion and Neoliberal economics have largely been a failure, what's the solution to get us out of this mess though?
  8. SPG


    Joined: Jul 28, 2010

    Posts: 5,211

    Changing the belief that profit is the only meta that matters.

    For that to work we need a good old fashioned revolution to remove the establishment, all they can offer is bribes to others to keep them in the ivory tower nothing more.


    Joined: May 3, 2012

    Posts: 923


    On topic, I have worked in financial services (mainly mortgages) for, mmm about 12 years now, when it comes to the mortgage industry, what seems to be imerging is concerning.

    lenders cannot lend it out fast enough at the moment, because interest rates are basically non-existent, there is little margin therefore little profit, this also means there is a ton of competition against each other. Banks have been told to capitalise, plus the government is still putting cheap money through banks, but all this capital is actually really bad news for banks as it looses value unless you can lend/invest it.

    Very risky though, lenders are cutting corners to justify lending at every opportunity, including "fudging" what is being reported to the FCA (believe me, that goes on), at the moment it seems like if you manage to spell your name correctly you will qualify for a mortgage.

    But banks can't loose at the moment because interest rates are so low, mortgages are cheap so people can generally pay them, but if interest rates rise... Disaster.

    But if you don't raise them, banks struggle to make as much money.

    So it's a catch 23 situation.

    Edit: another thing to mention is the level of unsecured debts that I am seeing recently. A very sharp increase in the last 18 months. People are racking them up, then remortgaging to repay those, wracking up their mortgages. Lenders don't care, they just want to lend.

    I think the worst I saw they had 220% unsecured debt Vs their annual income. It is beyond belief how these people manage, but it goes back to lenders desperate to lend out, at the moment, the capital is better off with people who are "just" about coping.

    It isn't sustainable.
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2018
  10. MadMossy


    Joined: Oct 25, 2004

    Posts: 5,869

    Location: Sunny Torbaydos

    Your not wrong about a revolution, its going to happen, its just a matter of years away now.
  11. RDM


    Joined: Feb 1, 2007

    Posts: 20,018

    How many years? It isnt like there hasn’t been talk of revolutions before.
  12. asim18


    Joined: Dec 5, 2006

    Posts: 15,410

    How long is a string?

    The teat has to run dry someday, we cant milk money forever and the elite of the past century have been absolutely relentless in maximising milkage at ALL COST, they have milked well into 10,000 yearsworth of neccessary human living resource so they can amass fortunes. The current socioeconomic system is indefinite, not infinite. It has to end someday, this is beyond question. Just because there's been talk of revolution before, and we are still in the current system of milking every resource we possibly can so a 0.1% elite can build their pyramids, doesn't mean the current system will continue infinitely.

    A revolution simply aims to reduce the damage of a complete and sudden socioeconomic collapse, on ordinary non-elite citizens, that's 99.5% of population. The issue is people have to realise what's going on and stop being sheeple. If we continue like this right up until the point of complete socioeconomic collapse, without any revolution, then there will be 60 million angry people rioting and the elite will run to their nuclear bunkers and will be BEGGING someone to nuke their slaves/citizens. (this is why nuclear weapons exist; the elite will be in their respective countries' bunkers [such as the gotta hardon base tunnel network], the nukes will only affect honest hardworking citizens who don't have enough money to build nuclear bunkers to withstand centuries of nuclear winter.)

    Sadly the only people who realise the damage which is being caused by the current capitalist system are the 2% at the bottom end, and the 0.1% elite. The 98% in the middle are just sheeple who are slaves to their masters and are actually happy to give their masters the absolute maximum in exchange for absolute minimum of a roof over their heads and some material crap like a cheap flashy car (probably on finance too lmao) for the 40 odd years that they're enslaved.
  13. StriderX


    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 17,984

    The 2% at the bottom end? Are you joking? Those people are highly unlikely to realise anything going by the correlation between social class and functional intelligence. I'd hazard a not insignificant minority of people with skepticism as one of their foundational beliefs are the only people who know the score, they are involved in all levels of social class. They either don't have the charisma to enact what they want from people, the environment isn't sufficiently charge enough or they benefit from it/don't care at all.

    Simple as.
  14. Freakbro


    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 14,432

    Location: Lincs

    No-one has a crystal ball, certainly not economists, but a big indicator of an upcoming recession occurred last week with an inverted US bond yield curve.

    Normally, as you would expect, the longer the bond you invest in the higher the return you recieve over short term bonds. In rare events, long term yields can drop so much they become lower than short term yields, which is called an inverted yield curve and these have occurred prior to every recession since the 1900's. On Friday the US 10 yr bond yield dropped lower than the 3 month bond.


    It's no secret there are global economic issues going on, with the Chinese slow down the US/China trade war, the uncertainty with Brexit etc and this has caused the drag on the long term yields and this cold be just a blip. If the US and China sort out their issues, if Brexit is resolved, then things can pick back up, but if this low yield trend continues for a quarter or two, it's something that historically has been an indicator of concern.
  15. Jokester


    Joined: Aug 7, 2003

    Posts: 38,309

    Location: Aberdeenshire

    I noted that there was an article in a recent GQ I think it was about a splurge of new skyscrapers being built in New York as well, which is another historical indication of an imploding economic bubble on the horizon.