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Peterborough by-election June 6th

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by BowdonUK, Jun 2, 2019.

  1. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 18,609

    Hardly, because this election wasn't solely about brexit, otherwise it should have won hands down.
     
  2. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 14,634

    Location: Lincs

    2%...which always seems to be described as an overwhelming majority when Brexiteers talk about the ref result ;)

    Anyway, for exactness, they are a company, no? Not even a political party....and they don't even have any official policies to garner a political stance about.

    And you know you are being completely disingenuous when you cite the 'only existed for 8 weeks' mantra. This is purely amd simply about Farage and his followers, he has his cult base from UKIP already who just moved over and swapped the colour of the box they tick since they just blindly follow what he does, he could put a sack of potatoes up for election and the drones would still vote for it.
     
  3. robgmun

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 30, 2006

    Posts: 14,503

    We already talked about that, the BXP party double the number of votes over previous UKIP results, so it's much more than the 'cult base' moving over :rolleyes:
     
  4. Freakbro

    Capodecina

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    Posts: 14,634

    Location: Lincs

    Did I say they were "all" of the support, or just the base of it? Of course he's picked up (mainly) Tory voters to add to the numbers currently as we have all already spoken about, and that's just because Brexit hasn't happened.

    The point I was making is that this isn't some unknown fresh startup that no-one knows heading it suddenly getting such results in their first elections. It's a populist figure with an already established base picking off other voters with a "single policy party" (I'll put that in "" since they aren't a party and don't have any policies) which did well in the EU elections, but as we said, doesn't translate so well to National elections.

    So have your :rolleyes: back
     
  5. Cern

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 3, 2008

    Posts: 3,163

    Location: London

    Yep, some awkward questions about anti-semitism and Brexit fence sitting. Dan Carden, Labour's 'sacrificial lamb' offered up for the BBC's in-studio analysis fared little better under Andrew Neil's relentless questioning, refusing to be knocked off the fence or express an opinion on pretty much any issue. And yet Labour still held onto the seat.

    This probably says more about the Brexit Party's loss of momentum due to a lack of actual policies if they cannot beat a Labour Party with an outgoing disgraced MP, an incoming MP already having to answer accusations of anti-semitism and in a seat that voted 61% leave in 2016.
     
  6. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 1,417

    That could be consider an improvement. ;)
     
  7. garnett

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 4,004

    Hardly - in a formerly ardent Leave area where 60% voted to Leave, a core 30% frothers still want kamikaze Brexit, 20% want Brexit fudge, and 50% voted for Remain parties. Extrapolate that 10pt swing to remain across the country and it tallies with all the other polls showing we are a Remain nation.

    That's to ignore that many of the 30% forthers claim Brexit fudge is "BRINO" and "not really Brexit" and many the 20% of Brexit-fudgers would rather Remain than go for bat****-crazy Brexit. It's disingenuous to pool these two groups of voters for whom the other group is anathema.
     
  8. Usher

    Mobster

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    Posts: 2,780

    I did notice that as predicted you skipped over the Lib Dem failure in that election
     
  9. garnett

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 4,004

    Lol. I didn't see a prediction, but I'm happy to talk about the LibDems. Quadrupling their vote share. 1 of 3 parties standing on a ref/Revoke platform out of the 4 main "full-manifesto" parties.

    Not sure what you were expecting from the vote really. 3 relatively moderate parties jostle for vote share in the centre ground while a novelty party enjoys a wave of support from people happy to vote in the dark.
     
  10. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 14,634

    Location: Lincs

    Brexit isn't the only political issue, even if it is the major one. Plenty of P'borough residents interviewed after said they voted on local issues and the place has always been a Tory/Labour marginal, the LD's were never going to challenge at the top in that election.

    That's the problem with the single issue "Brexit party', they are relevant in EU elections, less so in National ones, where local issues matter to people.

    And if the Tories manage to agree to Leave with a deal before the next GE (which will have to be a form of the current WA) then the BXP become immediately irrelevant again.
     
  11. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 4,109

    Not so; the BXP will then be angling to break the WA "because it is a shackle tying us to the EU". They only become irrelevant if we exit with no deal, which is why the Tory Brexiteers are angling towards that now.
     
  12. Harlequin

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 17, 2004

    Posts: 2,928

    Location: Eastbourne , East Sussex.


    However, even with the WA, Farage becomes unemployable; he tried to slime his way into the Trump camp and got laughed out and has failed 7 tiems to be an mp….
     
  13. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,280

    Location: Cambridge

    Any form of Brexit requires a GE that returns a clear majority government (or pro leave coalition) imo.

    The current parliament will not back the current WA, the EU will not offer a revised WA and parliament would rather hit the red button than see no-deal.
     
  14. ubersonic

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 26, 2009

    Posts: 20,422

    Interesting result, Labour effectively handed a seat by the BXP due to their splitting of the right wing vote.

    This tallies up with my point the other month about the danger (to the Tories) of the BXP splitting the right wing vote in a general election (like UKRP did to them in 1997) and costing them seats. It will be quite comical if Nigel Farage is responsible for gifting Jeremy Corbin a landslide GE victory and a mandate to hold a second referendum (even funnier if that's his actual master plan to get out of the mess he's made for himself and the country)
     
  15. DarkHorizon472

    Mobster

    Joined: May 16, 2007

    Posts: 2,686

    For all Farages bluster that looks likely to be the end effect of his far right campaigning, he has simply moved the conservatives much further right while splitting their increasingly dropping vote. This is a gift to the other parties.
     
  16. robgmun

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  17. Harlequin

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  18. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,116

    It's interesting how both the main parties having internal conflicts about their own MP's.

    In certain areas of the country this anti-semitism row isn't a big issue. In some cases would be vote winning. This is why Corbyn ultimately won't come out and properly condemn it, because he's already stated his opinions in the past.

    Unless a leadership contest was restricted to only labour MP's voting, then if its left to the members Corbyn would probably be voted in again. This is Labour now. Demographics of the members have changed, and so have their international views.
     
  19. a1ex2001

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    The EU will offer a revised WA if we change our red lines they have said this several times . The ones Theresa May imposed on us with no consultation or public input, they weren’t even in the Tory manifesto at the general election she botched probably because they would have cost her the moderate Tory vote.
     
  20. RedvGreen

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 2, 2009

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    Location: Midlands

    Would they really though? Remember they’ve disbanded the Brexit committee.