RDNA 3 rumours Q3/4 2022

[Zarax]

Will be a mighty upgrade then!

Yes, honestly I struggle to find reasons to upgrade though, my PC still chugs along with what I like to play...

 

[AWardy]

I got my 480 as a placeholder (thought it was ok perf for the price but not top tier) expecting to replace it with a 20 series. Wasn't overly impressed by the 20 series so kept it till it died.

 

[Tetras]

My rig is almost 10 years old, a few more months won't hurt.

If you wanted a more modest upgrade I'd get the RX 6700 which can be had for £320 and marginally meets your desire for more vram (+2GB) and should be a substantial uplift at 1440p. Doubled FPS might be pushing it though, but certainly possible in some games.

 

[Zarax]

If you wanted a more modest upgrade I'd get the RX 6700 which can be had for £320 and marginally meets your desire for more vram (+2GB) and should be a substantial uplift at 1440p. Doubled FPS might be pushing it though, but certainly possible in some games.

That is the upgrade I'm eyeing TBH. It's even going under 500€ in Italy but in all honesty I keep delaying the upgrade as I have to yet find a game that I both really want to play and cannot run yet.

 

[caliberlife]

I wonder if a 7800xt or non xt will be approx £600

 

[Phreaky]

I wonder if a 7800xt or non xt will be approx £600

That would be a lower MSRP than the 6800xt, so no.

 

[Twinz]

Yes, honestly I struggle to find reasons to upgrade though, my PC still chugs along with what I like to play...

If it weren't for VR, I would have probably stuck with my 1080Ti until this year when I got my CHG90.

I'm happy with a good 1080p monitor, but once I'm *wearing* the monitor(s) even 4k has a little SDE.

 

[Tetras]

I wonder if a 7800xt or non xt will be approx £600

I think it is possible if crypto/the economy doesn't reverse trend.

 

[Harlequin]

I think it is possible if crypto/the economy doesn't reverse trend.

5nm process is a lot more than 7nm

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

5nm process is a lot more than 7nm

A downward economy is an immovable object (relative to the size of AMD and Nvidia). So something else will have to give. If that means AMD and Nvidia have to eat into their margins then so be it

 

[Harlequin]

A downward economy is an immovable object (relative to the size of AMD and Nvidia). So something else will have to give. If that means AMD and Nvidia have to eat into their margins then so be it

Trickle down economics is a falsehood, any baseline cost si always passed along in the system to the end user. Back in 2020 the reported xost per wafer of 5nm was $17000, an increase of $8000 over 7nm

 

[KompuKare]

The last time there was a serious wafer shortage, AMD did what they were contracted (that is produce lots of console chips with ~10% margins), then allocated most of the rest to CPUs which have far greater margins than GPUs. If Sony or Microsoft want a 5nm refresh, I hope AMD told them they are at the back of the queue this time.

Navi 31 is rumoured to be 330mm² (https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/amd-navi-31.g998), and I'd presume that the defect rate is now pretty good for 5nm. However, unless we know the price per wafer we can't really estimate the cost.

Still, Navi 21 was 520mm² while Navi 22 was 335mm². So we can take the Navi 21 figures; a wafer should yield about 120 fully good Navi 31 dies. At $10k that's about $84, at $15k it would be around $126.

Other costs? Hard to guess. Fancy packaging will add to the cost but Navi 31 could be cheaper than Navi 21.

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

Trickle down economics is a falsehood, any baseline cost is always passed along in the system to the end user. Back in 2020 the reported xost per wafer of 5nm was $17000, an increase of $8000 over 7nm

That only works when the end user has money to buy your products. There is no point trying to maintain margins at the expense of sales and having your stock left to rot on shelves. When the other option is you take a hit on margins but you're shifting volumes and are still making some semblance of a profit.

My point is that when your customers have less money to spend due to a weak economy, you're going to need to compromise to get them to part with their dwindling supply of cash.

 

[humbug]

The last time there was a serious wafer shortage, AMD did what they were contracted (that is produce lots of console chips with ~10% margins), then allocated most of the rest to CPUs which have far greater margins than GPUs. If Sony or Microsoft want a 5nm refresh, I hope AMD told them they are at the back of the queue this time.

Navi 31 is rumoured to be 330mm² (https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/amd-navi-31.g998), and I'd presume that the defect rate is now pretty good for 5nm. However, unless we know the price per wafer we can't really estimate the cost.

Still, Navi 21 was 520mm² while Navi 22 was 335mm². So we can take the Navi 21 figures; a wafer should yield about 120 fully good Navi 31 dies. At $10k that's about $84, at $15k it would be around $126.

Other costs? Hard to guess. Fancy packaging will add to the cost but Navi 31 could be cheaper than Navi 21.

Rumours are wafers at at least $20,000 now. TSMC cashing in.

 

[Harlequin]

That only works when the end user has money to buy your products. There is no point trying to maintain margins at the expense of sales and having your stock left to rot on shelves. When the other option is you take a hit on margins but you're shifting volumes and are still making some semblance of a profit.

My point is that when your customers have less money to spend due to a weak economy, you're going to need to compromise to get them to part with their dwindling supply of cash.

Welcome to capitalism, warehouses will be full rather than sell at a loss.

 

[KompuKare]

Welcome to capitalism, warehouses will be full rather than sell at a loss.

At a loss is understandable, however certainly AMD these past few years have been known to spend a huge amount of money on designing, tapeout, etc. and then setting a price which barely sells much. Now while they have other higher margins products which they can use scares wafers for that makes sense. However, the fixed costs of design, masks etc. aren't getting any less so how ever much the stock market may not like it once a product has been designed, it needs volume even at lower margins.

Rumours are wafers at at least $20,000 now. TSMC cashing in.

Ah, well that would make Navi31 more like $170 per die. Plus an IO die, packaging, VRAM etc. Not that optimistic on prices.

 

[Harlequin]

At a loss is understandable, however certainly AMD these past few years have been known to spend a huge amount of money on designing, tapeout, etc. and then setting a price which barely sells much. Now while they have other higher margins products which they can use scares wafers for that makes sense. However, the fixed costs of design, masks etc. aren't getting any less so how ever much the stock market may not like it once a product has been designed, it needs volume even at lower margins.

AMD`s margins are the lowest of the big 3 - 1/3rd of Nvidia.

 

[humbug]

AMD`s margins are the lowest of the big 3 - 1/3rd of Nvidia.

Is that really surprising when at one point 3090 were retailing for $3,000, even now they are still $400 - $500 more than the 6900XT.

Nvidia's margins are 65% to AMD's and Intel's 46%.

It may not be what we wanted but its what we are willing to go with, that and cards with not enough VRam.

 

[Grim5]

Rumours are wafers at at least $20,000 now. TSMC cashing in.

$20,000 sounds about right for 5nm wafers and 3nm is over $30,000

 

[humbug]

Now you see why i'm not so critical of any of these, Nvidia or AMD when they say its really difficult now to make sub $200 GPU's.

Everyone wants more money, that includes Nvidia / AMD suppliers.