Sale of petrol and diesel cars to be banned by 2040

[adam cool dude]

On the flip side, replacing the battery on EV can also be an incredibly expensive thing to do, but in saying that when you have the likes of Tesla putting a 1 million mile guarantee on their batteries. Good luck doing that much driving in under 25 years, let alone 15.

There was a good mini series done by the Fully Charged crew with a youtube personality called Maddie who went from a petrol car to running on purely electric. Covers all the issues they expected to come into (but never did) and how life has been running an electric car.

If your in the market for buying a new car today and you have a drive way, your mental if you go for anything other than an electric car. Unless you do excessive mileage, even then a high end EV will probably do comparable distance to a high end Petrol/Diesel car.

Telsa Model 3 = ~350 miles per charge
BMW 5 Series = ~390 miles per tank p (~30mpg), ~500 miles per tank d (~45 mpg)

Either way a rest break for food/toilet would be required if you were doing that much driving in one stint, the EV can be charged from 0-80% in about 30 minutes, plenty of time to eat and do your business. The BMW could be refueled in 5 minutes, but not while your taking a dump.

I think you are missing the point. I have no doubt that an EV now can basically do everything a ICE can do bar super long distances. Eg European road trips and business use. Also maybe I am a minority but I very rarely stop for "rests" and will not stop for anything less than a four hour drive so at least for me untill an EV has the range of 500 miles and can refill in minutes it's a no with my circumstances as I quite often drive the continent these days. Why do I need to replace with a car that is still inferior? Price savings are negligible as how much more does a model 3 cost compared to similar speced 3 series? A quick Google suggests a 10 grand premium.

 

[adam cool dude]

Its hardly a problem depending on where you live. Most people do not have patrol pumps at home and plan to stop off to get fuel. For EV's its not any different apart from there are way more places to fuel up and the number is increasing massively per month.

It is a problem because if you cannot charge at home. The grid will not be able to smart charge and not being able to charge at home will lead to huge spikes in energy usage which the grid will not be able to cope with. Electricity usage over a year will go up in the region of 30%+ if you were to replace the 50 billion liters of fuel a year we use which is not a problem if the electricity usage can be managed but if it cannot then it will be a problem and the only way it can be managed is if all cars have access to chargers when not in use.

A lot of people currently refill during peak hours for example 8am before a typical 9-5 job. We have the infrastructure for that as filling up takes a matter of minutes and we have the stations to do it.

Replace that with everyone charging at 8am and the grid will just be brought down to its knees.

 

[MadMossy]

I think you are missing the point. I have no doubt that an EV now can basically do everything a ICE can do bar super long distances. Eg European road trips and business use. Also maybe I am a minority but I very rarely stop for "rests" and will not stop for anything less than a four hour drive so at least for me untill an EV has the range of 500 miles and can refill in minutes it's a no with my circumstances as I quite often drive the continent these days.

I question the speeds you drive at in that case, to plough through 350 mile range on EV in 4 hours would require significant law breaking. Many people dismiss an EV because they think it would be an issue, when in reality most people rarely ever do the distance. Think about how often you refuel your petrol/diesel car now and how often the car is parked on your drive way over night.

If the answer is once a week for fuel, left on driveway every night, an EV would make perfect sense. On that odd occasion you need to travel across country, plan stops into the journey, same for if your going across europe, plan it so you get sufficient charging stops. The charging points are there to be used, as a petrol/diesel owner I very much doubt you even pay attention to them. After all there are currently more charging points in the UK for EV's than there are petrol stations, and new charge points are being installed at an alarming rate (~700 per month)

There are 3 rapid 120-150kW chargers within a few miles of me and I live in Devon!

 

[Puzzled]

It is a problem because if you cannot charge at home. The grid will not be able to smart charge and not being able to charge at home will lead to huge spikes in energy usage which the grid will not be able to cope with. Electricity usage over a year will go up in the region of 30%+ if you were to replace the 50 billion barrels of fuel a year we use which is not a problem if the electricity usage can be managed but if it cannot then it will be a problem and the only way it can be managed is if all cars have access to chargers when not in use.

The lack of investment for our electricity infrastructure is worrying, personally I'd rather see the HS2 money go towards clean energy supplies (renewable and nuclear) to help power this future world of EV transport. I've also seen interviews where they say how EV batteries will be plugged in to the grid to help maintain supply when they aren't in use but unless the battery is on some sort of lease system I wouldn't want my expensive battery wasting charging cycles on powering the grid.

It's not just EV's either, gas boilers will soon be banned and for many the only alternative is electric heating. Now electric heating is actually pretty good as its near 100% efficient but its too damn expensive and needs a clean supply, so we need to be putting serious investment into creating clean cheap electricity.

 

[Mark1989]

It's also easy to list a Tesla 3 or BMW 5 series are great for longer miles but the average person isn't ever gonna be able to afford a car like that.

Electric cars also need to come down to a cost most people can afford

For me an electric car for my milage would be fab and what stops me getting one if im being realistic is due to where I live which is terraced home with no private parking so no way to charge one

 

[Bounce]

On the flip side, replacing the battery on EV can also be an incredibly expensive thing to do, but in saying that when you have the likes of Tesla putting a 1 million mile guarantee on their batteries. Good luck doing that much driving in under 25 years, let alone 15.

There was a good mini series done by the Fully Charged crew with a youtube personality called Maddie who went from a petrol car to running on purely electric. Covers all the issues they expected to come into (but never did) and how life has been running an electric car.

If your in the market for buying a new car today and you have a drive way, your mental if you go for anything other than an electric car. Unless you do excessive mileage, even then a high end EV will probably do comparable distance to a high end Petrol/Diesel car.

Telsa Model 3 = ~350 miles per charge (0 - 80% super charger costs ~£12)
BMW 5 Series = ~390 miles per tank p (~30mpg, ~£74 per tank), ~500 miles per tank d (~45 mpg, ~£77 per tank)

Either way a rest break for food/toilet would be required if you were doing that much driving in one stint, the EV can be charged from 0-80% in about 30 minutes, plenty of time to eat and do your business. The BMW could be refueled in 5 minutes, but not while your taking a dump.

Your arguement is slightly flawed because:

A)Telsa mode 3 - you can't get 350 miles from a single charge, real world driving the long range model only does 239 miles.

B)You've compared a Tesla model 3 long range which is a 50k car compared to a BMW 5 series which is 35k-40k car.

C) There aren't many fast chargers that are currently about only major motorway service stations tend to have them and sometimes you have to wait for someone to finish using it.

 

[adam cool dude]

The lack of investment for our electricity infrastructure is worrying, personally I'd rather see the HS2 money go towards clean energy supplies (renewable and nuclear) to help power this future world of EV transport. I've also seen interviews where they say how EV batteries will be plugged in to the grid to help maintain supply when they aren't in use but unless the battery is on some sort of lease system I wouldn't want my expensive battery wasting charging cycles on powering the grid.

It's not just EV's either, gas boilers will soon be banned and for many the only alternative is electric heating. Now electric heating is actually pretty good as its near 100% efficient but its too damn expensive and needs a clean supply, so we need to be putting serious investment into creating clean cheap electricity.

I was going to add this as well but this is another point which just goes further into the rabbit hole. It's like everyone has no idea on what to do and wants to just electrify everything without any though as to how we are going to produce it.

 

[MadMossy]

Your arguement is slightly flawed because:

Your looking at the immediate cost of the vehicle, yes the model 3 long range costs more, but over a period of 3-5 years your looking at a significant cost saving over the equivalent petrol/diesel car, in the region of 30-60% less. If you only do 12500 miles a year, in 4 years that initial £10k difference is gone, maybe even sooner as you won't have the high maintenance costs of an ice vehicle.[/QUOTE]

 

[Orionaut]

It's also easy to list a Tesla 3 or BMW 5 series are great for longer miles but the average person isn't ever gonna be able to afford a car like that.

Electric cars also need to come down to a cost most people can afford

For me an electric car for my milage would be fab and what stops me getting one if im being realistic is due to where I live which is terraced home with no private parking so no way to charge one

This is my point earlier, the debate seems to be dominated by people who think a Tesla 3 is "Affordable".

For 90% of the UK population (Or even more) a new Tesla 3 is an utter fantasy.

I think the ICE ban is a mistake, global virtue signalling. There are other ways of fuelling ICE's than mineral oil.

Large PHEV/Hybrids. combined with Small, cheap, (cheap enough to be afforded as a second or even third car, full EV's, even if they only had a 50 mile range), would meet all other requirements.

As an aside, My main concern over EV tech is actually the resources management issue.

We have spent the last century suffering the consequences of being reliant on a mineral resource that seems concentrated largely in ******** counties around the word and particularly in the ME.

The EV revolution is (Unless a lot of effort is put in) simply going to exchange a reliance on ******** ME counties with a reliance on ******** central/south American ones.

(And of course China)

Pursuing a policy that turns places like Bolivia and China into the new OPEC doesn't really strike me as being a particularly good idea.

I would rather see a policy that manages to achive our objectives (Green or otherwise) that also separates us from all this geopolitical crap!

 

[MadMossy]

That's assuming batteries of the not too distant future continue to rely on lithium, which if your aware of battery tech and where its going, won't be the case. There are already advancements in battery chemistry that will take us away from a reliance on lithium to instead use graphene, which is graphite, used in pencils and in abundance through the planet. Lets not also forget that in 15+ years time we may well have the technology to "exploit" local asteroids for minerals which would certainly help a lot.

 

[Simon]

There’s optimism and then there’s nipping to a local asteroid for a lump of colbalt.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Don’t forget the most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen, subject to nuclear fusion at your local star.

 

[Pottsey]

It is a problem because if you cannot charge at home. The grid will not be able to smart charge and not being able to charge at home will lead to huge spikes in energy usage which the grid will not be able to cope with. Electricity usage over a year will go up in the region of 30%+ if you were to replace the 50 billion liters of fuel a year we use which is not a problem if the electricity usage can be managed but if it cannot then it will be a problem and the only way it can be managed is if all cars have access to chargers when not in use.

A lot of people currently refill during peak hours for example 8am before a typical 9-5 job. We have the infrastructure for that as filling up takes a matter of minutes and we have the stations to do it.

Replace that with everyone charging at 8am and the grid will just be brought down to its knees.

Its not like its going be overnight it will be a steady increase year on year. The grid can be adapted to handle it over time. It’s not like 15 years and suddenly out of the blue everyone will swap to EV’s. There will be steady semi predicable increase year on year.

I really don’t see it being a problem in most areas people will just plug in when they park up for work, park up for shopping, park up for cinema trips e.c.t Those with driveways will just park up overnight.

As far as I am aware there is no indications of any electricity problem. Its just a scaling job that will happen over time. Surely its easier to build and maintain the infrastructure to provide electricity over building and maintaining the infrastructure to provide 50 billion liters of fuel a year every year. The cost to maintain that fuel infrastructure now will just be converted over to maintain electricity. Which is why I predicted over time patrol stations will close down or convert and patrol will get rarer. At some point it should get difficult to get fuel for an ICE car as more of the infrastructure coverts from fuel based to electricity based .

 

[Mark1989]

Its not like its going be overnight it will be a steady increase year on year. The grid can be adapted to handle it over time. It’s not like 15 years and suddenly out of the blue everyone will swap to EV’s. There will be steady semi predicable increase year on year.

I really don’t see it being a problem in most areas people will just plug in when they park up for work, park up for shopping, park up for cinema trips e.c.t Those with driveways will just park up overnight.

As far as I am aware there is no indications of any electricity problem. Its just a scaling job that will happen over time. Surely its easier to build and maintain the infrastructure to provide electricity over building and maintaining the infrastructure to provide 50 billion liters of fuel a year every year. The cost to maintain that fuel infrastructure now will just be converted over to maintain electricity. Which is why I predicted over time patrol stations will close down or convert and patrol will get rarer. At some point it should get difficult to get fuel for an ICE car as more of the infrastructure coverts from fuel based to electricity based .

So every house of every type is suddenly going to be able to charge and ever car park etc will suddenly be able to cater for this by 2040...sorry just not gonna happen.

 

[adam cool dude]

I question the speeds you drive at in that case, to plough through 350 mile range on EV in 4 hours would require significant law breaking. Many people dismiss an EV because they think it would be an issue, when in reality most people rarely ever do the distance. Think about how often you refuel your petrol/diesel car now and how often the car is parked on your drive way over night.

I frequently drive on the continent as I have family in Poland and Lithuania. Myself and the missus drive together. We can do 350 miles in 4 hours and that's not speeding when you got 140km/h speed limits .

 

[Jonnycoupe]

I often do 4 hour trips in lots of time, how do you manage 4 hours trips in no time?

 

[adam cool dude]

Its not like its going be overnight it will be a steady increase year on year. The grid can be adapted to handle it over time. It’s not like 15 years and suddenly out of the blue everyone will swap to EV’s. There will be steady semi predicable increase year on year.

I really don’t see it being a problem in most areas people will just plug in when they park up for work, park up for shopping, park up for cinema trips e.c.t Those with driveways will just park up overnight.

As far as I am aware there is no indications of any electricity problem. Its just a scaling job that will happen over time. Surely its easier to build and maintain the infrastructure to provide electricity over building and maintaining the infrastructure to provide 50 billion liters of fuel a year every year. The cost to maintain that fuel infrastructure now will just be converted over to maintain electricity. Which is why I predicted over time patrol stations will close down or convert and patrol will get rarer. At some point it should get difficult to get fuel for an ICE car as more of the infrastructure coverts from fuel based to electricity based .

It takes absolutely years to build power stations. Our current production per year is around 330TWh. Peak of around 400TWh in the early naughties (Funny how our energy bills haven't gone down hey ). All the fuel we use in a year accounts for around 150ish TWh if we all changed to battery. This is not including Lorries or commercial or the fact 80% of homes use gas central heating which has now also been banned for new builds in 5 years.

The petrol network in this country has been around and expanded over several decades. They want all this electrified in 15 years without any clear plan from the government what so ever. Petrol network is also easier to manage as it can be transported and stored easy. The electric network needs roads digging up etc and needs to be everywhere for everyone to use smartly.

Only way this will change is if you will be able to charge batteries in minutes but you are physically talking huge amounts of power to do that if it is even possible.

 

[adam cool dude]

I often do 4 hour trips in lots of time, how do you manage 4 hours trips in no time?

Flux capacitor .

 

[MadMossy]

There’s optimism and then there’s nipping to a local asteroid for a lump of colbalt.

People like you are why we never went back to the moon, people like me are the reason we went there in the first place. The technology is getting there, its only a matter of time (years) before it happens, could be 15 years could be 50 years, certainly in my life time I would like to think.

 

[Pottsey]

So every house of every type is suddenly going to be able to charge and ever car park etc will suddenly be able to cater for this by 2040...sorry just not gonna happen.

Of course not and you do not need every house or every parking space to be a charge point. All you need is a steady increase in charge points to match the increasing in EV's on the road.

All you need is a number of different parking/charge options and then you pick the most convenient one for yourself. You do not need 100% of parking spots turning into charge points. For example based on the average drive most people could just park at there local supermarket once a week, do the shopping once a week and have enough charge to do the weeks drive until the next weekly shop. Supermarkets will steadily increase the amount of parking points converted over as EV numbers increase. Same for parking lots they will just steady increase the charge points.

With an EV you can just drive to my local city, park up as I would with an ICE car in the multistory car park only with the EV getting fuel as I do whatever I have gone to the city for. Then leave the city on a full tank and drive home. Not that I need to as I have a driveway. But without a driveway that would cover the weekly charge I would need and I tend to go to the city once every 2 weeks. So if I did not have a drive away I would just alternative between the supermarket shop charge and the city park charge and be covered all year long without wasting any time at a patrol station.

In many areas is now easier to get your EV charged up then it is to get to a patrol station and get fuel. In my area its go to the supermarket free charge point, go to the cinema, food eating out places, pubs, parking lots, even drive deep into the forest and the car parks all have charge points. Go out for one nice meal at our favorite Indian restaurant and the EV is charged up for the week.

You do not need them all you just pick one of them once a week for the average driver. Its faster and easier then going to the patrol station as you are already planning to go to that location so just park up as normal.

I know some areas are lagging behind more then others but overall the amount of charge points are increasing monthly. Its getting more common to find it easier to get to a charge point then a patrol station.