Shelf life of F1 drivers

Soldato
Joined
17 Aug 2009
Posts
17,816
Location
Finchley, London
How long do you reckon Lewis and Vettel have got before they retire? And Alonso and Kimi for that matter. Those four have been in F1 for a long time. It'll be strange when they're no longer driving, we're all so used to thinking of those names and talking about them, particularly Hamilton. I wonder which, if any, of the current lot of younger drivers, even in the best seat, has that extra special spark like Hamilton and Vettel, to become a multiple champion.

Perhaps Verstappen will eventually get offered the best car and become top dog. I don't think Ricciardo will become a champion, I see him as another Mark Webber or Coulthard. Great driver who will just continue to win the occasional grand prix. Not sure about others. Possibly Ocon, Stroll or Vandoorne. New kid on the block Gasly has shown good potential.

Thoughts?
 

Deleted member 651465

D

Deleted member 651465

It all depends how long Hamilton and co want to drive. If Merc remain competitive for the next 3 years then I can’t see Hamilton quitting. Vettel is too young to consider retiring and you have to believe Lewis would want to one-up Vettel by grabbing >4 titles.

Kimi? He’s been phoning it in since his Renault days tbh. The sooner he goes the better.

However, I’d say the opposite for Alonso. He’s been driving well considering what he’s had available but sooner rather than later he’s going to get fed up of driving a dog around the circuit and leave. I expect he’ll be gone by 2019.

I really don’t like Max. He comes across as arrogant, self entitled and a bit of a hot head. Much rather Ricciardo as WDC if I had a free choice as he’s just an all round likeable guy :)

It’s crazy to think that Alonso has been around since the Montoya, Villeneuve, Irvine and Hakkinen days. Had Schumacher still been going then it would be unreal as he was around in the Senna era!
 
Caporegime
Joined
17 Jul 2010
Posts
25,718
I can't see Vettel staying past his new three year Ferrari contract. I also can't see Hamilton staying past his next Mercedes contract either. Kimi will retire/be forced out at the end of next season if Leclerc impresses at Sauber. And I expect him to.

Bottas will be out of Mercedes for 2019, he was only re-signed because there wasn't much else available. I don't expect Ricciardo and Verstappen to both be at Red Bull for 2019, most likely Ricciardo. They have Sainz as an option, unless he gets bought out by Renault, but as Red Bull's driver academy seems to have fizzled out after Gasly suggests they may be considering a way out.
 
Soldato
Joined
17 Oct 2005
Posts
6,243
Location
North of Watford Gap
Some of us have been through many eras of F1, so it's nothing new to see the old guard replaced. We've had several 'golden ages' were we've lost several top drivers in short order, the most obvious probably being 1982 (losing Villeneuve and Arnoux) and 1993-1994 (losing Prost, Mansell and Senna).

I thought Hamilton would be off this year if he won the title, but unless he does a Rosberg (not going to happen!) then he'll be at the top for a few years yet - Schumacher's 7 titles could well be matched. I felt over last winter that his attention had moved and he seemed less focussed on F1, but it seems he's just learning to stay fresh by having other passions. Once he leaves though that's it; he's not interested in other forms of motorsport, which is a shame as Hamilton vs Alonso in similar cars would be a mouthwatering prospect in an endurance championship.

Alonso could also stay in F1 as long as he wants, but it largely depends on what happens in the expected driver shuffle next year and whether McLaren look much better with the Renault engine. Unlike Hamilton Alonso is clearly interested in other forms of motorsport, and at some point he'll undoubtedly move to Indycar or Le Mans Series (depending on what happens there soon, as it's a bit up in the air at the moment).

As for Vettel, I agree with MissChief, he might extend his Ferrari contract for a year or 2, but once he leaves Ferrari he'll leave F1 and possibly motorsport. He looks under immense pressure at Ferrari, so I think he'll quit relatively early for the sake of his own sanity! He strikes me as quite the family man and doesn't yearn for the limelight, so he might do a bit of DTM or something if the juices are still flowing, but I can't see him jetting around the world or Europe for half the year.

Kimi, while probably better than most, obviously isn't what he used to be, but he's lost interest before and come back, so who knows. I feel he could still do a job for a midfield team, if he's interested, but teams are looking at younger drivers now and his time in F1 will probably be over if Leclerc has a good season next year (assuming he does end up at Sauber).

Verstappen is the obvious candidate to take over as the boss, ironically, but there are plenty of other exciting youngsters who could be right at the top. Ocon, Leclerc, Sainz, Vandoorne and possibly even Giovanazzi and Wehrlein (obviously Mercedes still have hopes for him considering they've continued to support him, but his time is likely over) are all drivers supported by top manufacturers, so they have the potential to be title challengers.
 
Last edited:
Caporegime
Joined
17 Jul 2010
Posts
25,718
Agree about Wehrlein, he's beaten Ericcson but any competent driver would. I'm much more impressed by Ocon at Force India, as good as matching Perez. That they both were signed again for next season without too much thought or deliberation by FI says a lot.
 
Soldato
Joined
17 Oct 2002
Posts
5,538
Ocon and Verstappen are the most promising young drivers for me, Vandoorne has it tough being compared to Alonso but I wouldn't imagine Verstappen being in his shadow as much as Vandoorne has been.

Ricciardo has been around a while now, he's very very good but for me just a sliver below the levels of the greats like Hamilton and Alonso. He's got a very good chance of getting a WDC but unlikely to get a string of them.
 
Associate
Joined
31 Oct 2004
Posts
2,316
Ocon and Verstappen are the most promising young drivers for me, Vandoorne has it tough being compared to Alonso but I wouldn't imagine Verstappen being in his shadow as much as Vandoorne has been.

Ricciardo has been around a while now, he's very very good but for me just a sliver below the levels of the greats like Hamilton and Alonso. He's got a very good chance of getting a WDC but unlikely to get a string of them.

I think RIC would only be able to acheive a WDC if he had a massively better car than the rest of the field and didn't have a teammate as good as VER. Kind of like vettel did for his 4 WDC's.
 
Soldato
Joined
17 Oct 2002
Posts
5,538
I think RIC would only be able to acheive a WDC if he had a massively better car than the rest of the field and didn't have a teammate as good as VER. Kind of like vettel did for his 4 WDC's.

Needn't be massively better, but I don't see him making up any car deficit like Hamilton and Alonso have regularly done. He's faster than recent single WDCs like Hill, Button, and Rosberg and if he gets his chance I'm confident he'll take it.
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Feb 2012
Posts
5,768
Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc to add to Verstappen, Ocon, and Vandoorne are all names to watch out for as multiple future world championship contenders.

I can see Alonso going until 2020 end. I can see Hamilton and Vettel going further, as long as they have competitive cars at least. Both seem to be driven by the records, and the closer they can get to breaking more of the all time records the longer they will be motivated to stay.

Ricciardo, as much as I like him, I think will only ever get 1 WDC and that will be in a Button/Brawnesque situation, maybe not an underdog story but a year where he gets a great car and a 2nd rate team mate.
 
Transmission breaker
Don
Joined
20 Oct 2002
Posts
16,811
Location
In a house
We live in a strange period. Older drivers around now are the last to have had the luxury of mega testing miles. They are seen as safe hands and have a level of experience that makes them a huge asset for development and making the most of testing.
Young driver tests are only there to force the teams to give younger drivers some miles as with limited miles available they have to make use of them regardless of the calibre of driver.
Slowly these mega miles drivers are going off the boil and the cars are becoming far enough removed from the cars of old that the experience becomes less important year after year.
I expect the turnover to resume once the last of these drivers becomes an unrealistic option for the top teams.
 
Caporegime
Joined
17 Jul 2010
Posts
25,718
We live in a strange period. Older drivers around now are the last to have had the luxury of mega testing miles. They are seen as safe hands and have a level of experience that makes them a huge asset for development and making the most of testing.
Young driver tests are only there to force the teams to give younger drivers some miles as with limited miles available they have to make use of them regardless of the calibre of driver.
Slowly these mega miles drivers are going off the boil and the cars are becoming far enough removed from the cars of old that the experience becomes less important year after year.
I expect the turnover to resume once the last of these drivers becomes an unrealistic option for the top teams.

Teams will generally prefer a known quantity rather than trying something new. This is why so many simply average drivers managed to stay in F1 for so long. Sutil, Panis, Trulli and many others. Of course some backing from sponsors helps too. I still think a gradual increase in testing should be introduced but mandate that no race driver who has started more than 10 races in the past 3 seasons cannot drive for the team in testing. That would mean many more young drivers being given seat time in current cars, giving teams a proper look at the younger drivers and their potential.

I also think that the GP2 winner should be guaranteed a seat at a team, even a FIA/FOM backed team. Start with one car for one season and then expand to two cars after the first season. Get Dallara to make the chassis as they do for Haas. Get Honda to supply an engine too and look at many other now defunct teams for staff and equipment. The GP2 winner (or runner up if he has a seat as Leclerc may have next season) for two years. If you haven't done enough to get an established team interested then tough **** you got your chance.
 
Associate
Joined
8 Jul 2014
Posts
2,155
Location
Hampshire
Nigel Mansell covered this point in his recent biography.

Whereas in previous years when the sport was still considered more dangerous/tougher than it is now, seat availability was more prevalent. Nowadays, whist the sport is considerably safer and from an physical perspective less so, drivers have a much longer longevity.

I agree that drivers winning the GP2 championship should be guaranteed a seat at a team, however costs need to be reduced to encourage more teams to cater for rising talent. The trouble is the absorbent costs of F1 to run a team.

Hell, I would love to see none of this electro recharging nonsense. Slower cars with manual gear boxes. As long as they spit fire, sand traps, slid in the corners and made a noise I would be happy.

Television figures would soon pick up if free to air...
 
Caporegime
Joined
17 Jul 2010
Posts
25,718
Nigel Mansell covered this point in his recent biography.

Whereas in previous years when the sport was still considered more dangerous/tougher than it is now, seat availability was more prevalent. Nowadays, whist the sport is considerably safer and from an physical perspective less so, drivers have a much longer longevity.

I agree that drivers winning the GP2 championship should be guaranteed a seat at a team, however costs need to be reduced to encourage more teams to cater for rising talent. The trouble is the absorbent costs of F1 to run a team.

Hell, I would love to see none of this electro recharging nonsense. Slower cars with manual gear boxes. As long as they spit fire, sand traps, slid in the corners and made a noise I would be happy.

Television figures would soon pick up if free to air...

Slower cars with manual gear boxes: Many thought the cars too slow and too close in performance to GP2. Over time they'd become slower for safety reasons, mainly by reducing aerodynamics. Noise wise I don't mind the new cars having heard them in person. They're plenty loud but not ear-splittingly so. F1 and F3 were MUCH louder but also more painful to the ears, F3 especially. Not sure about manual gearboxes though, the majority of up and coming drivers won't have driven a manual gearbox car in many years. Some possibly even not at all.
 
Soldato
Joined
15 Feb 2003
Posts
10,051
Location
Europe
No reason why top drivers in F1 can't continue well into their 40s. F1 is one of the least demanding when compared to top flight athletic sports. I remember Men's Health doing doing an article on this. Combat sports tend to require the most fitness, stamina, reflexes etc.. and in these you routinely see world champions in their 40s. Sports like Tennis, badminton, table tennis, etc.. require immense hand-eye coordination, and Federer is still knocking out the odd championship there. If you think back, it wasn't until MSc that fitness started to get taken seriously. Mark Webber alludes to this in his book.

F! drivers are routinely test for reaction times and the like. I remember a short in the build up to one of the races I think it was Nico. They are probably standardised. It would be nice if we stats from things like this released by the FIA, like we get with stats from other sports.

Anyway, I reckon Hamilton might call it a day. For the type of music he's into, he needs to get his music career going sooner rather than later. No-one is going to listen to a 40 year old debutante R&B singer, or or worse if he has a go at hip-hop or rap.

Alonso still seems to have mad-crazy hunger. I see him staying for another two years.

Kimi is pap. Back in his day he used to be the fastest of anyone in terms of single lap pace, regularly collecting fastest lap trophies. He started at a young age, and seemed to be on the decline even in his world championship year. Still a crazy quick driver on his day, but I think even on his day in a car that is to his liking (and they rarely are) he'd be beaten over a GP distance by more thoughtful drivers (and yes I'm going to include Lewis in that!)

Vettel, I think will retire two years after leaving Ferrari. I don't think he's a great fit there, but don't see him quitting F1 just yet nor do I see him finishing out his contracted term at Ferrari. I think Ricciardo would be a much better fit with Ferrari.
 
Soldato
Joined
17 Jun 2007
Posts
9,292
Everytime Verstappen opens his mouth I'm amazed at his maturity. He's a special talent for sure.

I'd love to see Ricciardo as a world champion as I think he's fantastic for the sport.

I'm sure there have been some speculation that lewis wont be in F1 for too much longer. Maybe 2-3 yrs max.
 
Soldato
Joined
15 Feb 2003
Posts
10,051
Location
Europe
Well Max is stuck at RBR for the next 3 years now freeing up Ricciardo to go to another team.

F1 needs more variety. In the past the only people to win the championship will be Kimi, Lewis, Seb, and Nico.
 
Back
Top Bottom