The Tesla Thread

bloodiedathame · 9 May 2018 at 11:22

Simon said:
How is depreciation in that cost analysis plus it won’t be long until that ‘fuel’ is taxed

Ours is used so it took a hit on the depreciation already. Also we're PCP so we'll see how the prices are before the balloon payment at the end.
Looks like a 2011 Leaf new (after grant) cost £23,350. Autotrader lists them now as £6-7k. Average/high depreciation.

As to electricity being taxed (specifically for EVs?), that's not really an argument for buying an EV now. Sure the Gov will find a way to tax them eventually, but until then, it's very cheap motoring.

VincentHanna · 9 May 2018 at 11:30

I know it will be a gradual thing, but the government would be £28.2 billion down in terms of earnings if tomorrow literally everyone had EV's and were not buying petrol/diesel anymore.

http://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/fuel-duties/

McPhee · 9 May 2018 at 12:58

VincentHanna said:
I know it will be a gradual thing, but the government would be £28.2 billion down in terms of earnings if tomorrow literally everyone had EV's and were not buying petrol/diesel anymore.

http://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/fuel-duties/

Theres about ~£5bn shortfall on VAT on top as electricity is both cheaper and attracts VAT at a lower rate. And then there's VED...

There's little chance of the status quo continuing for long. The treasury can't afford to lose £35bn+ a year in revenue. I doubt it'll be as simple as adding more tax to electricity though - people need that for basic living. Chances are, whatever they come up with will be an additional tax on all road users.

bloodiedathame · 9 May 2018 at 13:08

VincentHanna said:
I know it will be a gradual thing, but the government would be £28.2 billion down in terms of earnings if tomorrow literally everyone had EV's and were not buying petrol/diesel anymore.

http://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/fuel-duties/

Interestingly, that's about what the Gov invests in transport. https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...c-spending-was-calculated-in-your-tax-summary

The Government could invest in public charging points and generate revenue from them, if they were forward thinking...

Phate · 9 May 2018 at 13:18

bloodiedathame said:
Interestingly, that's about what the Gov invests in transport. https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...c-spending-was-calculated-in-your-tax-summary

The Government could invest in public charging points and generate revenue from them, if they were forward thinking...

Steady on. You're using logic now

bloodiedathame · 9 May 2018 at 13:23

Phate said:
Steady on. You're using logic now

Technically they are investing, around £20million I think, but I don't pretend to know what the big picture is, whether they'll lease these to third party vendors etc.

Mr Jack · 9 May 2018 at 13:25

chroniclard said:
Er what, neither are desirable in anyway shape or form. Also thats not really "decent" performance.

Most cars sold today are slower than that. Away from high end cars and hot hatches, 8s is good acceleration. It's plenty quick enough for most people.

Phate · 9 May 2018 at 13:44

bloodiedathame said:
Technically they are investing, around £20million I think, but I don't pretend to know what the big picture is, whether they'll lease these to third party vendors etc.

The government here in Portugal did this. Funded a third party company to fit a load of charging stations and the infrastructure in general. Its currently free to use but will be chargable in the next few months. So they'll start getting their money back soon enough.

Lashout_UK · 9 May 2018 at 15:49

Estimates now indicating that Tesla is losing almost $16k on each Model 3. Ouch. Interesting to see what happens in the next few months.

VincentHanna · 9 May 2018 at 16:01

That doesn't make sense, Tesla said before they are making 25% gross margin on each Model 3

Has somone just looked at current losses vs Model 3's sold and incorrectly linked the two figures?

McPhee · 9 May 2018 at 16:06

Mr Jack said:
Most cars sold today are slower than that. Away from high end cars and hot hatches, 8s is good acceleration. It's plenty quick enough for most people.

The performance profile is quite different though. At the lower end of that range, it's quicker than the 0-60 would suggest. At the upper end of that range, it's slower. And efficiency at speed remains an issue. For me, that last bit was the real disappointment with the new Leaf. It's still pretty bad at long-distance, high-speed journies.

Nissan still have a way to go before they've got a truly practical mass-market EV. Fortunately for them, nobody is currently any closer. The standard (i.e. non-premium) Model 3 is pretty close, if/when it eventually sees the light of day.

Phate · 9 May 2018 at 16:08

VincentHanna said:
That doesn't make sense, Tesla said before they are making 25% gross margin on each Model 3

I thought they were not making 25% on the Model 3 yet, but on the Model S & X.

VincentHanna · 9 May 2018 at 16:11

Well yeah, obviously the upfront costs of the production facility come off the profits you make.

But that's the same for any car.

The first MK8 Golf won't be profitable. Does that mean that VW lose 10 million quid or whatever it costs to make a new generation of car though? Methinks not.

Mr Jack · 9 May 2018 at 16:21

VincentHanna said:
That doesn't make sense, Tesla said before they are making 25% gross margin on each Model 3

Has somone just looked at current losses vs Model 3's sold and incorrectly linked the two figures?

Tesla said they're aiming for 25%, not that they're achieving it. They currently aim to become profitable by the end of this year. A lot of commentators think their ambitions are not that credible.

VincentHanna · 9 May 2018 at 16:23

But surely they aren't actually losing $16,000 on each model 3

More likely that the car just hadn't gotten in to profit yet due to the upfront manufacturing cost.

Not really the same thing is it? Nobody is going to sell a car that loses money.

Mr Jack · 9 May 2018 at 16:26

There's a good rundown of the numbers here (yes, it's quora) https://www.quora.com/Is-Tesla-losing-money-on-each-Model-3-they-sell

And yes many manufacturers sell at a loss in the early stages of production. The assumption is that improvements during the life of the factory will turn a profit in the end. Not selling cars, after building the factory, would return a bigger loss.

Amp34 · 9 May 2018 at 16:54

chroniclard said:
They dont have a choice, they buy a slow run of the mill electric car or nothing at the moment.

Model S is all well and good but its hideously expensive, so until the 3 actually arrives there is nothing worth having in the electric niche.

The Model 3 is also almost twice the price of the average new car bought in the UK/Europe.

Standard hatchbacks like the Golf and the Civic vastly outsell more performance oriented saloons for a multitude of reasons. You may want a cheap performance oriented saloon, but the market for those is minimal compared to mainstream run of the mill hatchbacks and small SUVs, hence why most other manufacturers are concentrating on those markets.

The Model 3 is taking a massive chunk out of the premium saloon market (BMW 3, Merc C and Audi 4) but not really affecting the rest of the market much at all. The saloon market outside of that sector is basically dead in North America (several major companies have stopped or are stopping production of their saloon options) and it’s not looking much better in Europe. Most people don’t want saloons any more.

That’s not to say if there were better hatchback options people wouldn’t go for them instead, or that many people that want an EV (and are willing to pay more than they would for an ICE) would rather get the 3 than an eGolf or Leaf. Just that “desirable” cars are not what most people buy.

Besides all of that whats wrong with the look of the eGolf and Leaf? Granted neither is going to win design awards, but the eGolf looks practically identical to the standard golf and the Leaf fits in nicely with most other similar sized hatches. Interior wise I very much doubt they’re much different to any of the non EV golf and Nissan hatches (the civic).

lordrobs · 9 May 2018 at 17:15

The losses on Model 3's must be partly due to Tesla failing to hit the numbers they were expecting. They can't be getting the economies of scale they had budgeted for. Honestly, I think by the time they start producing high volumes of vehicles the mainstream manufacturers will have played catch-up and many of those on the order books will be looking to Tesla for their deposits back.

I've asked if I can get a plug in hybrid as my next work vehicle (but I don't think I'll get one) and we've decided that my wife will have one more IC car before going full EV. On the weekend I was seriously thinking about my toy car (mk1 MX5) and honestly, if there was an electric alternative, I could see me having one as a pure weekend car.

chroniclard · 9 May 2018 at 18:16

Amp34 said:
The Model 3 is also almost twice the price of the average new car bought in the UK/Europe.

Standard hatchbacks like the Golf and the Civic vastly outsell more performance oriented saloons for a multitude of reasons. You may want a cheap performance oriented saloon, but the market for those is minimal compared to mainstream run of the mill hatchbacks and small SUVs, hence why most other manufacturers are concentrating on those markets.

The Model 3 is taking a massive chunk out of the premium saloon market (BMW 3, Merc C and Audi 4) but not really affecting the rest of the market much at all. The saloon market outside of that sector is basically dead in North America (several major companies have stopped or are stopping production of their saloon options) and it’s not looking much better in Europe. Most people don’t want saloons any more.

That’s not to say if there were better hatchback options people wouldn’t go for them instead, or that many people that want an EV (and are willing to pay more than they would for an ICE) would rather get the 3 than an eGolf or Leaf. Just that “desirable” cars are not what most people buy.

Besides all of that whats wrong with the look of the eGolf and Leaf? Granted neither is going to win design awards, but the eGolf looks practically identical to the standard golf and the Leaf fits in nicely with most other similar sized hatches. Interior wise I very much doubt they’re much different to any of the non EV golf and Nissan hatches (the civic).

I basically want either a model 3 or something similar, a "family" car with some decent performance and range > 200 miles. My gripe was there are absolutely no alternatives to a model 3 at the moment, imo. I may be missing the entire point of EVs but that would be my criteria for getting one. Basically a hot hatch EV or a BMW M Sport EV.

Amp34 · 9 May 2018 at 18:54

chroniclard said:
I basically want either a model 3 or something similar, a "family" car with some decent performance and range > 200 miles. My gripe was there are absolutely no alternatives to a model 3 at the moment, imo. I may be missing the entire point of EVs but that would be my criteria for getting one. Basically a hot hatch EV or a BMW M Sport EV.

I think at the moment companies are concentrating on high volume/high profit margin vehicles. The more niche products will come eventually, but high volume small hatchbacks and high gross SUVs seem to be what most manufacturers are concentrating on at the moment. The cars that sell large numbers in their traditional ranges, because realistically EVs are the future replacement of normal ICE cars.

So yeah, I guess missing the point a little, in some ways.

Same with the hybrid conversation earlier, yes they can be good in performance cars, but most of the work is going to be aimed at normal vehicles with normal performance and styling. That’s where most of the sales and profit is.

Tesla are doing things a little differently and going for the more niche products first, perhaps because they started when people “needed” a reason to spend more on an EV. It’s probably beneficial for their business model that they are also high profit segments, and cash flow is what Tesla need right now, being a startup.

If you want a nice EV SUV, or a small city car then in the next couple of years there are going to be plenty of options. Hot hatches and saloons? You’re going to have to wait a bit, or get a Model 3 unfortunately.