1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

The Brexit Party

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Mr Badger, May 8, 2019.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ots3go

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 15, 2005

    Posts: 2,537

    Location: Notts

    Quoting from the article:

    "The Singapore government accounts for 16 percent of the GDP, maybe 17 percent. So to say that you’re going to be like Singapore, are you going to give up two-thirds of your government spending, state pensions and national health?"

    I think that's exactly what the billionaires behind the scenes want. :(.
     
  2. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 9,660

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    Damn you guys, I wanted to see how much newoc didnt understand about singapore before you bombarded him with truth!

    Love the way he just skipped my post about how making trade harder with the Eu doesnt mean it automatically becomes possible elsewhere. Yeah I guess more evidence hes all soundbite and no knowledge
     
  3. doodah

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 20,634

    Location: London

    Yeah been waiting for the bubble to burst regarding Singapore. What's their population, ~5m? Obviously the 70-80m in the UK in 50 years don't want any services provided.

    Trickle down economics has been working so well in America....
     
  4. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 12,239

    Well, let's give it a go…

    As @GordyR has posted many times, access to the EU single market accounts for around 5% of UK GDP depending on the year and the body doing the research:
    • The Departments for International Development did a study back in 2011 which put the figure between 2–6%.
    • The CBI produced a report in 2013 (updated in 2016) that put the average figure between 1–9% but averaged to 4–5%. [This report is behind a paywall so I can't link to it]
    • An IFS report in 2016 put the figure at 4%.
    • A European Commission report from February 2019 puts the figure at between 8–9%, but that's an average for all EU member states — the UK figure is probably lower than this.
    In contrast, the potential Free Trade Agreements the UK could negotiate with the RotW are unlikely to plug the gap:

    A government report into a UK/US FTA found that it wouldn't make a massive difference:

    A Government EU Exit Analysis Briefing from last year found that:

    So basically, we're giving up around 5% of our GDP by leaving the EU and would then have to negotiate new FTAs with all of our closest trading partners in order to recoup 0.7% (in a best-case scenario). Furthermore, that analysis assumes that we are adopting all of the existing FTAs we currently enjoy through our EU membership.

    How many reciprocal arrangements have we secured so far? As of today, we've rolled over 15 'continuity deals' (worth about 8% of total UK trade) from the 40-odd deals we currently have access to via our membership of the EU.

    @thenewoc, tell me again how every pound of trade that we would have got from the EU is going to be replaced by someone outside the EU?
     
  5. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,500

    They don't need to replace every pound, they just need to replace every pound for the hedge fund managers and it'll be fine. /smile
     
  6. GordyR

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 1, 2003

    Posts: 4,912

    Location: Essex

    An excellent post @Irish_Tom.

    It's rather telling that only one side of this argument has ever been capable of producing evidence and linking to reputable sources in order to support their position.
     
  7. Steampunk

    Soldato

    Joined: Jun 1, 2013

    Posts: 6,632

    It's also worth noting as well as being geographically our closest trading partners (all blocs trade locally in the majority), the EU contains about 25 of the world's richest countries. You can't just go elsewhere and find another set of world's richest countries outside of the EU. You can't replace trading over the channel with trading on the other side of the world as the costs are also higher.
     
  8. Tony Edwards

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 4, 2018

    Posts: 3,372

    What countries outside the EU are we not trading with already?
     
  9. thenewoc

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 9, 2012

    Posts: 4,862

    Location: West Sussex, England

    That's not the point, we don't get more elsewhere because we've been getting some of it from the EU. That doesn't mean that couldn't be changed.
     
  10. Martini1991

    Caporegime

    Joined: Sep 18, 2009

    Posts: 27,763

    Location: Dormanstown.

    It also doesn't mean it needs to be changed.
     
  11. thenewoc

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 9, 2012

    Posts: 4,862

    Location: West Sussex, England

    It does if you want to make someone who won't cut a deal with you feel what it's like to loose the business.
     
  12. Martini1991

    Caporegime

    Joined: Sep 18, 2009

    Posts: 27,763

    Location: Dormanstown.

    But this isn't what the leave campaign said. They told us we'd whistle and the EU would come cap in hand.
     
  13. KiNgPiN83

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 16, 2003

    Posts: 3,586

    Location: Chatham

    I’ve even heard people speak the immortal line, “They need us more than we need them.” Not just typed out, actually spoken to me in discussions.
     
  14. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,500

    And yet it looks like we're about to be booted after a year without the EU actively doing so as to not appear the enemy, it's just a year long buffer for the EU at this point.
     
  15. redeye

    Gangster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 420

    Location: Leipzig, Germany

    Germany exports vastly more to China than the UK does. But they're in the EU. Being in the EU is not the limiting factor, local factors are to blame. As is the case with every argument to leave.
     
  16. DarkHorizon472

    Mobster

    Joined: May 16, 2007

    Posts: 3,141

    It’s the point you made.
     
  17. a1ex2001

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 14, 2005

    Posts: 11,707

    Location: Here and There...

    Don’t be so sensible it is all someone else’s fault especially the evil EU!

    interesting times ahead for the Brexit party the polls don’t seem close enough for Boris to contemplate a deal with them not that I think he ever could have if the conservatives wanted to remain relevant. This means nige needs to stir up some serious noise to maintain his influence.
     
  18. redeye

    Gangster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 420

    Location: Leipzig, Germany

    Oops sorry, forgot!

    Also depends if the no dealers no longer trust Boris to deliver Brexit and how many of them go for the Brexit Party Ltd instead. As those sensible people said many times, elections should not be about one issue...but that's all this election will be. Democracy...ha.
     
  19. a1ex2001

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 14, 2005

    Posts: 11,707

    Location: Here and There...

    I can’t decide how many people will swallow the ‘just another eu treaty’ ‘we voted for a clean break’ rhetoric and if nige is really up for it he has been very quiet recently maybe Boris has paid him off after all.
     
  20. redeye

    Gangster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 420

    Location: Leipzig, Germany

    I heard him interviewed about Boris' deal and of course he said it wasn't a proper Brexit and it should be voted down, but aside from that indeed he's been very quiet. Mind you his party have been busy not voting in the EU parliament for a few small unimportant things like blocking foreign Russian) money from elections etc.

    But I thought all leavers voted to leave? I.e no deal?
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.