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The Conservative Party: Where do we go from here?

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Gigabit, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,151

    After todays first round ballot eliminated the stragglers we're in to the second stage of this Conservative leadership contest. I thought it might be interesting to hear;

    Who do you prefer to win?

    Who do you think will win?


    The contenders are (with the previous vote numbers);

    Boris: 114
    Hunt: 43
    Gove: 37
    Raab: 27
    Saj: 23
    Hancock: 20
    Stewart: 19
    Leadsom: 11 - Eliminated
    Harper: 10 - Eliminated
    McVey: 9 - Eliminated
     
  2. VoG

    Soldato

    Joined: Jan 20, 2004

    Posts: 5,609

    Location: Nottingham

    Who do i prefer?, non of them.

    Who do i think will win?, Bojo the clown because he's a populist & the only thing the Tories care about is winning the next ge, so there's no way they'll elect another May like pm.
     
  3. Colonel_Klinck

    Hitman

    Joined: Oct 3, 2007

    Posts: 761

    Location: London, UK

    Boris will win. He won't be able to get a Brexit vote through parliament and he'll be a dead man walking come Nov.
     
  4. satchef1

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 17, 2009

    Posts: 3,886

    Boris will win. And then the cracks will start to show.

    Best candidate? For anyone hoping for us to leave the EU promptly, that'll be Boris or Raab. For anyone who doesn't want to leave the EU, Stewart. But if any of those three win, there will almost certainly be defections (and possibly a full split) from the Tory Party. For the longevity of the Tory Party, it has to be Hunt or Gove. They could likely keep the Party ticking along a bit longer, though I can't see a way for the party to survive long-term.
     
  5. RedvGreen

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 2, 2009

    Posts: 3,511

    Location: Midlands

    Unless something horrific happens with some disclosure, or Boris actually drops down dead, Boris has this in the bag.

    Who would I prefer? Stewart. He certainly appears to be the most level-headed and world-wise of the lot. In either case, we are headed for General Election regardless. Labour can't put up a good fight, so it'll be Brexit-y Tories versus Green/Libs versus two-party voter-Labours.
     
  6. The_Abyss

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 15, 2007

    Posts: 11,281

    Location: Ipswich / Bodham

    Reported. Use the Conservative Party thread. No need for another one for a 4 - 5 week topic.
     
  7. PlacidCasual

    Soldato

    Joined: May 13, 2003

    Posts: 5,756

    I would be deeply surprised if the party folded personally, there are hundreds of Conservative Associations with thousands of members who provide the infrastructure getting candidates elected. They will have a tribal loyalty to those associations and the party it would take sustained failure over a number of years at national level for that to break down. In addition there has to be an alternative to displace the Conservative party such that those people give up or transfer allegiance. Much like UKIP The Brexit Party is too focussed on a single goal, it's a home for people who share like opinions on one issue, I would imagine there is insufficient commonality over a larger policy area to become a true disrupter party. If they achieve or fail at their primary goal people will return to their more natural political homes. Also the socially liberal, big state side of politics has many established parties that drift around similar orbits, Labour, SNP, Lib Dems, Greens etc. But the small "c" conservatives, small state, economic liberals only really have the Conservative party to call home. Much as when Obama led the Democrats to both Houses and the Whitehouse and a new liberal future was proclaimed, writing off the Conservative Party forevermore now because it's had a wobbly 3 years is overstretch in my opinion 14 million voters aren't going to suddenly change their nature overnight and if there is no alternative home they'll stay conservative. They might not be motivated to vote at the next election but they're not going to wake up socialists.
     
  8. ColdAsIce

    Mobster

    Joined: May 26, 2006

    Posts: 4,849

    Location: Edinburgh

    I take it the luncheon is more relaxed and doesn't get a minutes recorded?
     
  9. chroniclard

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 23, 2014

    Posts: 11,906

    Location: Hertfordshire

    Hard to see Boris not destroying the Tories or is that wishful thinking. :p Alternatively everyone will ignore/not care about his constant incompetence like they do Trump.
     
  10. wesimmo

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Mar 19, 2012

    Posts: 2,108

    At this point in time, all I really care about is that, whichever party gets elected, they are pro EU or at least a new referendum.

    The short term pain of any other policies will pale into insignificance versus the long term pain of leaving. That for me is the only talking point for now.
     
  11. Spook187

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Jan 16, 2010

    Posts: 7,962

    Location: Cumbria

    You have to be kidding me, Rory Stewart is one of the biggest liars there is, he has broken so no many promises for Penrith and the Border what he says he going to do, another Eton puppet plank.
     
  12. Thecaferacer

    Gangster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2019

    Posts: 491

    Let's face it, he probably did say it in one form or another. But Jonathan Lin comes across as a wimp for not naming anyone and apparently shelving his own story so he could toady up to the government.

    Id like to think so. It would be pretty Sovietesque if everything you said over lunch was written down.
     
  13. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,771

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Please elaborate.
     
  14. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 4,132

  15. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 30, 2013

    Posts: 17,889

  16. balls

    Wise Guy

    Joined: May 20, 2007

    Posts: 1,173

    Location: Bath, Somerset

    And many of us merely tolerate elements of the christian and other churches (irrelevant of their feelings against homosexuality)
     
  17. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,771

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    I would prefer Stewart to win, he seems a serious cut above the rest. I suspect Hunt will win. Gove would have been more likely but his nose habits have wrecked his chances, the Tory Party is not yet ready for Javid, Hancock has pulled out, Raab's only merit is being a rock-hard Brexiteer and Boris's pretending to be that, while Stewart is not a realistic prospect. You might say Boris seems more likely but historically Tory Party elections are not won by the front runner, which leaves Hunt.

    And you know the sad thing: most of the rest of the field makes Hunt look like a good choice.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
  18. cheesyboy

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 7, 2012

    Posts: 11,242

    Location: Gloucestershire

    Of the realistic ones, I'd prefer Hunt or Gove. And that's a pretty poor indictment of the lineup, frankly.
     
  19. Shocky-FM

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 13, 2005

    Posts: 3,407

    Boris for PM!!!
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
  20. robfosters

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 1, 2010

    Posts: 29,042

    Location: Welling, London

    I see Rory Stewart's done a handbrake turn and now decided that he would serve under Boris. I wonder why that change of heart has come about.