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The Conservative Party: Where do we go from here?

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Gigabit, Jun 10, 2017.

  1. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,767

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    I think bookies are overrated as political guide but, regardless, Stewart has just rocketed into second place, although massively behind Boris.
     
  2. a1ex2001

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 14, 2005

    Posts: 11,205

    Location: Here and There...

    We are not staring into the chasm at this point and it’s not about ruling out no deal it will be about kicking the can with yet another delay. If we get to the brink unless parliament is shutdown they will force the pm to seek an extension like they did with TM there is no majority for no deal.
     
  3. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,144

    No deal is automatic if nobody does anything. The opposition tried to bind the next PM to blocking no deal. But the vote failed.
     
  4. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,767

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Aye, but it was spectacularly badly timed by Labour. The situation is likely to be different in October.
     
  5. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,144

    I think Corbyn represented a big side in Labour as I've seen it mentioned a few times how Labour activists were losing their place in voting conferences under the Blair government. So there was a groundswell of support for him. The MP's didnt like him but the party members re-elected him twice. I'm not sure I can see a big movement in the Tory party for what Stewart is saying. He comes across well. But I think the frustration about Brexit is going to mean, in my opinion, the Tories could get Brexit through parliament if they called a general election and be 100% committed to it, as well as de-selecting 'remain' Tories. This would also have the effect of blunting the Brexit party, like Thatcher did when the National Front were about to break through in the late 70s. She used the phrase "swamped" trying to grab ground back from parties to the right. I suspect the Tories will have to do that again with the Brexit party.
     
  6. satchef1

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 17, 2009

    Posts: 3,883

    The problem with using the bookies as a guide is they clearly have low confidence in their predictions when it comes to everyone but Boris. That's why there's a substantial gap between the odds being offered at the Bookies, and the odds at the exchange.

    Stewart, for example, can be bought as low as 8/1. That gives an 11.1% probability of victory. Yet over at Betfair Exchange, the odds are 29/2; equivalent to a 6.5% chance of victory. That's a significant spread.

    What can be discerned from the Bookies' odds is that they're open to the possibility of Stewart winning, and have begun to plan accordingly. Hence the speed that the odds have shortened.
     
  7. a1ex2001

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 14, 2005

    Posts: 11,205

    Location: Here and There...

    That vote was badly timed and was to rule out no deal wait till mid October if parliament isn’t suspended they will force who ever is PM to ask for an extension again there is no majority for no deal and it is the one thing parliament have been consistent on.
     
  8. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,144

    The second round vote will take place tomorrow between 3pm to 5pm with the results known by 6pm.

    Then the BBC1 debate starts at 8pm.
     
  9. ricid

    Gangster

    Joined: Sep 26, 2018

    Posts: 348

    The cynic in me thinks Corbyn called it when he knew it would fail.
     
  10. String

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 6, 2013

    Posts: 11,444

    Edit: wrong thread.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
  11. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 1,455

    EDIT: Replied to wrong thread post. :)
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
  12. cheesyboy

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 7, 2012

    Posts: 11,239

    Location: Gloucestershire

    These are the people selecting our next pm:



    Insane.
     
  13. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 16,767

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Shocking, isn't it? It also emphasises again how much worse than Conservative voters at large the members are.
     
  14. jpaul

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

    Posts: 7,357

    hadn't seen this before - but summarises Boris well.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. satchef1

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 17, 2009

    Posts: 3,883

    So the people polled would happily see Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK, see Brexit cause significant damage to our economy, and see the Tory Party crumble...

    ...but Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister is a step too far. Because he'd damage this country? ...
     
  16. chroniclard

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 23, 2014

    Posts: 11,875

    Location: Hertfordshire

    lol, that is appalling, we have members here with similar insane views that are fully paid up cult members.
     
  17. doodah

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 19,624

    Location: London

    I am always amazed by how the threat of something that hasn't happened is far worse than what is happening now and for nearly a decade.
     
  18. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 30, 2013

    Posts: 17,814

    Another question was:
    Who do you think has more in common with you:
    People who agree with you on brexit, but vote for another party: 51%
    People who disagree with you on brexit, but vote conservative: 30%
    Don't know: 19%
     
  19. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 1,455

    Europe has always been the Conservatives Achilles heel though.
     
  20. Mr Badger

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 27, 2009

    Posts: 6,122

    All that poll shows is that a select group of out of touch, wealthy old white folk are reminiscing about a rose tinted version of the good old days, when they were young, Britain still had some bits of the empire left, foreigners knew their place because we had thrashed them in two world wars and you could call a spade a spade. What harm can they possibly do?