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The Democratic 2020 Primaries

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by BowdonUK, Jun 29, 2019.

  1. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,793

    Super majorities? That won't happen unless the turnout increases and wont happen if they can't end gerrymandering/voter suppression.

    https://medium.economist.com/would-...t-if-all-americans-actually-voted-95c4f960798

    If everyone voted (simply isn't happening, but shows the level of benefit the Dems have regardless), the Dems would win the Presidency almost every time (though would probably lose if hit by scandal) and it would continue to grow considering the demographics.

    The Dems need to get people voting ultimately. No idea what this translates to for governors/state legislature/congress or the senate.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019
  2. viathinair

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Nov 28, 2009

    Posts: 2,201

    Location: Englishman in the states.

    I'm looking at super-majorities from the assumptions that Trump isn't just re-elected but the impeachment, a future recession, his BS in general, etc. drains Republicans gradually, allowing the Dems to slightly increase their seats in 2020, again in 2022, and finally 2024 (with hopefully a good candidate then and a big turnout), all adding up. I should've specified the "hope" is next to none.

    Edit: One of my points was that a Dem winning next year (which won't happen) may be a far worse result than what would be found in 2024 if the Dems stay and properly build in opposition for 4 more years.
     
  3. BowdonUK

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,808

    An interesting debate last night in Ohio. I still say the best chance the Democrats have to beat Trump is by selecting either Andrew Yang or Tulsi Gabbard.

    Highlights of Andrew Yang


    Highlights of Tulsi Gabbard
     
  4. Evangelion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 23,034

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    Current indications point to Biden being the candidate Trump fears the most, and Warren the candidate he'd prefer to run against.

    Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics predicts that Trump will enjoy a landslide electoral college victory. Moody has successfully predicted the outcome of every US election since 1980... except the last one.

    You think their best chances are the guy polling at 2.2% and the woman polling at 1.2%? Seriously?
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2019
  5. BowdonUK

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,808

    I have to wonder who they are polling to have Biden at the top. The guy is past it. Warren is looking better as the debates go on. But shes got baggage when she's previously claimed to be native American. Trump is going to be all over that.

    When the presidential race starts the Democrat party will get behind the candidate. The fight will be for the middle ground against Trump. I think it'll be more difficult for Trump to personally attack Yang and Gabbard without coming off badly.

    Trump isn't going to beat Yang on economics. He's also going to have to be careful with how he deals with Gabbard on foreign policy.
     
  6. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,793

    Neither of those people will get dems out to vote however, so it's utterly pointless.
     
  7. Evangelion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 23,034

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    Past it or not, Biden destroys Trump in nationwide polls, he has a great political track record, and female voters love him. That's why Trump's campaign is hoping Warren will win the nomination.

    Trump's campaign is taking a different tack. They're painting Warren as a reckless socialist who will destroy the economy by handing out 'free stuff' to everyone. They already got all the mileage they're going to get over the native American stuff. Now they have to focus on ideology and policy.

    However, unlike Sanders, Warren has never claimed to be a socialist of any kind, so it won't be as easy to make that label stick.

    Perhaps. Remember that the Bernie Bros helped to split the vote out of spite last time, which weakened Hillary's chances in the electoral college.

    Neither of them present any threat to the frontrunning candidates, so it's a moot point. Trump will never need to deal with them.
     
  8. BowdonUK

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,808

    I agree that neither Yang or Gabbard will win any nomination this time. I think in 2024 the candidate field will be a lot different.
     
  9. Lord-Jaffa

    Soldato

    Joined: Jul 29, 2004

    Posts: 5,693

    Location: UK

    Female voters love him? Old creepy Joe and his wandering groping octopus hands.
     
  10. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 30, 2013

    Posts: 19,340

    I think Biden would lose to Trump.
     
  11. Yas786

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 46,674

    Location: All over the world...

    Same here, due to Trump doing a “Hillary” on Biden aka the Ukrainian investigation. Even though Biden hasn’t done anything wrong as Trump keeps bleating about, it’s the fact that it’s now out there just like Hillary’s email scandal.
    Trump will use it to further enrage his base and probably win another 4 yrs sadly.


    Although I do hope the Americans have come to their senses in the past 3 yrs and vote Trump and his scumbag family and administration out for good.
     
  12. Evangelion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 23,034

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    Yep, Biden polls high with women on a national level. It's one of the reasons why he's leading the pack.

    By contrast, Trump polls badly with women, as you'd expect. 62% of registered female voters have said they will not support him for a second term.
     
  13. BowdonUK

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,808

    What polls are these?

    I've just looked at some polls from 3 hours ago at this link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-october-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/

    It's got a before and after the debate last night. The top 3 for defeating Trump are Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders. Biden is in 4th place.
     
  14. Evangelion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 23,034

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    Trump vs Biden. Here.

    Biden leads Trump by an average of 7 points. Even Fox gives him a lead of 6.9.
     
  15. Evangelion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 23,034

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    The DNC has raised the bar for primary debates. To qualify, candidates now require:

    * 4% in at least four DNC-approved national or early-state polls

    or

    * 6% in two approved early-state polls

    Candidates also need donations from 200,000 unique donors, with a minimum of 800 donors in 20 states.

    It's a smart move to cull an overcrowded field.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
  16. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,793

    Gotta get those Russian's out of the contest ;)
     
  17. DAIR

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Jul 23, 2009

    Posts: 8,677

    Location: Cayman Islands

    I think they're all bonkers, I mean some of the policies are ridiculous.

    Which one of them lied about being a Native American? I forget her name....

    And then you have Kamala.... Lying about smoking pot (why she thought admitting to something like that would be cool, I don't know) and listening to Tupac and snoop in college.... Was later revealed that Tupac and Snoop weren't even on the scene, during her time in college.

    Why can't these people just be themselves?!
     
  18. DAIR

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Jul 23, 2009

    Posts: 8,677

    Location: Cayman Islands

    This... They don't have a clue.

    I'd say the most credible person there in Andrew, sadly I don't believe he's popular enough. The man seems to have real commonsense.
     
  19. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,793

    I hate to be be a bit bigoted here, but are any Americans themselves?
     
  20. viathinair

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Nov 28, 2009

    Posts: 2,201

    Location: Englishman in the states.

    The irrationality about one's "image", combined with the Hollywood lifestyle = a lot of Americans are indeed chasing a fake or fleeting lifestyle.

    But I disagree with your clear implication that the likes of Edward Witten, Noam Chomsky, et al, are all just a bunch of soulless, Hollywood-ised drones.