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Shamikebab said:
What it's really good for is examining trends. For example you're looking to sign two strikers, both have scored 20 goals in a season in similar gametime. Are they both similar options? What if one scored those 20 goals from 21xG and the other scored them from 8xG? The latter is unlikely to continue to exceed xG by that amount. For example Darwin Nunez is massively overperforming this season by a factor of 2.5 or something crazy, one of the many reasons I don't want us to sign him.
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Its a hard one because in theory, the more clinical the striker, the higher their over-performance vs xG should be. I don't believe they have any sort of adjustment for quality of player in xG. That being said, an xG that is 40% of their actual goals is mental and should be a red flag for a player in a ridiculous hot streak.

I haven't really dug into football statistical analysis outside of the very superficial level so I don't know how much stats are shared across leagues and what adjustments they have. How well they can predict transfer of talent across leagues and continents etc. Fascinating subject.
 
He has scored several goals this season from next to nothing chances, so I stand by that sentence.
He hasn't had an endless supply of great chances due to a very poor midfield, so has had to make the best of what was given.

Please note the 'for me' bit, just indicating my opinion :-)

You are entitled to yours of course, if you are happy with judging on stats alone then fair play, you crack on (I am not telling you you are wrong).
 
Some players do consistently overperform xG (I believe Son is one who has always overperformed) but it's amazing how many even top strikers actually trend really close to xG over their careers (or at least as long as it has been collected) For example Lewandowski over the last 8 years is within 1xG of his actual output!
 
father-ted said:
He has scored several goals this season from next to nothing chances, so I stand by that sentence.
He hasn't had an endless supply of great chances due to a very poor midfield, so has had to make the best of what was given.

Please note the 'for me' bit, just indicating my opinion :)

You are entitled to yours of course, if you are happy with judging on stats alone then fair play, you crack on (I am not telling you you are wrong).
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Except this isn't a matter of opinion. You're literally saying "oh well the stats don't matter, I know better" You're doing the football equivalent of flat earth theory. You're claiming that Ronaldo hasn't had chance created for him and has scored out of nothing to compensate when the stats show that isn't true. A discussion with two sides only works if both sides can support their argument and you've given nothing to back yours up.
 
Shamikebab said:
Except this isn't a matter of opinion. You're literally saying "oh well the stats don't matter, I know better" You're doing the football equivalent of flat earth theory. You're claiming that Ronaldo hasn't had chance created for him and has scored out of nothing to compensate when the stats show that isn't true.
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Now you are just making things up to back up your argument (an argument with yourself I might add).
To me, the stats don't really matter, I watch the game and form my own opinions.

Where have I said 'I know better'?
I have already said I accept your differing opinion, you crack on with your stats - it is an interesting alternate-side to look at and compare players, but cannot ever replace watching the actual games (to me anyway).
 
father-ted said:
He has scored several goals this season from next to nothing chances, so I stand by that sentence.
He hasn't had an endless supply of great chances due to a very poor midfield, so has had to make the best of what was given.
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So as an interesting point, I think it was against Spurs where it finished Ronaldo 3 - Spurs 2 we had an xG of something silly like 0.9 for the team. He massively over-performed that game. That does however point to the fact that for a while during the season Ronaldo was utter crap and was missing chances he would normally score. I think there was around a month where he was in horrible form.


Shamikebab said:
Some players do consistently overperform xG (I believe Son is one who has always overperformed) but it's amazing how many even top strikers actually trend really close to xG over their careers (or at least as long as it has been collected) For example Lewandowski over the last 8 years is within 1xG of his actual output!
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This is why its so fascinating. Lewandowski is unquestionably one of the best strikers of this generation but perhaps his main talent is in being in the right place at the right time. Lewa scores a huge number of his goals from around the 6 yard box where you have a much better chance of converting an opportunity and the opportunity is probably of much higher quality as a result.

Son on the other hand tends to score cracking goals which you wouldn't expect many players to score. Its questionable as to which is better. Hitting your xG because you are reliable or exceeding it because you are taking on riskier shots.
 
Lewandowski has been a beast of a player, his reading of the game really sets him apart for me - popping up in the right place at the right time just oozes from him, alongside a predatory skill.

Son is a wizard at times, scoring some unbelievable goals.
 
father-ted said:
Now you are just making things up to back up your argument (an argument with yourself I might add).
To me, the stats don't really matter, I watch the game and form my own opinions.
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You literally just said you wanted a debate now you don't? You're all over the place mate. Claim you don't say things that you said 2/3 posts ago. Unlike you I've actually backed up my arguments.
 
Scroll back and re-read, you were stating I was saying I knew better and you were wrong etc.

You like the stats, I prefer watching the performances on the pitch, but the stats are an interesting way to compare players (for me, that is as far as the stats go).
 
You've stated multiple times that you believe yourself watching games over stats. So I don't see how me saying you think you know better than the stats is a lie?
 
I stated that I prefer watching the performances on the pitch and the stats are an interesting way to compare players, but that is as far as stats go (for me personally).

Where have I said I know better? (So that is not true is it).

You also said other things that were not true, but I am laid on a sun lounger in Turkey and can't be arsed pointing them all out to you :-)

We have differing opinions, I can accept that and like I keep saying, I am not saying you are wrong!
 
Glad to see at least the clear out continuing (lingard, pogba, matic, mata etc) - Looking forward to seeing a proper reshaping of the team going forward.

For all the slaggin Smalling got at times - He's done very well for himself at Roma.
Now if we can only shift Marital, Jones, Bailly (116 games in 6 season - far too many injuries) - that would be a good start to the changes required.

Amad is another crazy one - £20 million and hardly got a game at Rangers this season.
VDB - Would like to see him back and given a chance at United
 
booyaka said:
For all the slaggin Smalling got at times - He's done very well for himself at Roma.
Now if we can only shift Marital, Jones, Bailly (116 games in 6 season - far too many injuries) - that would be a good start to the changes required.
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Smalling, like many ex-premier league players thrives in the Italian league because its far weaker than the PL and their weaknesses aren't highlighted. There are loads of players who have moved from the Italian league to the PL and struggled and loads that have moved the other way and suddenly looked quality again.
 
I think the speed of play in the Prem causes the most problems for the players, they don't get much breathing time on the ball and are often forced into mistakes.
Football in Europe tends to be a lot slower, giving players more time to think and react.

Somebody must have a stat to compare? :-)
 
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