Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[Skeptic]

Nowhere is as busy as expected! Greggs, for me, is a hold for years not days. The problem with this market is that investments are confused with trades. I have not lost a moment's sleep with GRG, but expect the road to be rocky. Get it? Rocky road? It's a cake man!

 

[Simon]

Hope it’s not a northern rock road

 

[Skeptic]

Like it!

 

[platinum87]

Problem with physical silver, at least today(maybe not 2009), is the 20% VAT and then the usual costs with handling/storing (if not taking delivery). Need to make 20% profit just to cover the VAT as you won't get that back.
Nice shiny door steps tho

The premium over the spot price for silver is 50-100%, while gold is 5-10%

If you buy Silver Britannia's from the royal mint, works out to 80% premium over spot. Baird and co, works out to 50% premium.

I invest in silver via an etf, its just much better. With gold i do both, but i don't want too much physical gold as i consider that equivalent to a pension of sorts, or just, very long term.

That's the benefit of coins. The Royal Mint are one of our clients and legal tender is VAT and CGT exempt: www.royalmint.com/invest. No point buying anything else really. I've got a couple of solid gold coins with some providence but nothing too substantial.

I've traded a few old sovereigns and the like in the past, but due to gold prices/interest rates the cost of them at auction is crazy atm. Good time to sell!

Legal tender is not VAT exempt, its only CGT exempt.

Its gold bullion that's VAT exempt.

 

[DarrenM343]

The premium over the spot price for silver is 50-100%, while gold is 5-10%

If you buy Silver Britannia's from the royal mint, works out to 80% premium over spot. Baird and co, works out to 50% premium.

I invest in silver via an etf, its just much better. With gold i do both, but i don't want too much physical gold as i consider that equivalent to a pension of sorts, or just, very long term.



Legal tender is not VAT exempt, its only CGT exempt.

Its gold bullion that's VAT exempt.

I've held Gold and Platinum in the past (via RM) and also a managed fund (Blackrock Gold & General).
Good idea on the Silver ETF. I looked into those a while ago too, but not yet used.

I'm not bullish on metals atm. Will see how this idea pans out tho, might be wrong.

 

[Skeptic]

Ps I'll buy grg all the way down.

 

[Andrew_McP]

Ps I'll buy grg all the way down.

I've started shopping at Iceland part of the time, because I can get an online delivery really easily at the moment. I haven't had a decent sausage roll from supermarkets for years, and the last time I shopped at Greggs was whenever they stopped doing teacakes, which is years ago. Started that habit back in the 80s when I'd regularly head down to the far end of the Manchester Arndale Centre to stock up on teacakes and assorted saturated fats.

Unfortunately for my arteries, Iceland's Greggs frozen range, and particularly the sausage rolls, are the dog's borrox! Well, hopefully the pig's porrox and eyelids etc. Darned tasty! I shall continue to be a buyer, though whether I'll be enough to push the share price up much is up for debate.

 

[Fusion]

High street footfall must be down across the board- meaning that all businesses relying on passing trade are feeling it. I just think with something like Greggs, barriers to entry are pretty low. Anyone can set up producing that kind of food, though it would take time to scale and build a brand of course. Tastes changes quickly too. There might be a Lebanese street food revolution in the future that crushes all in its path.

 

[Andrew_McP]

There might be a Lebanese street food revolution in the future that crushes all in its path.

I'm not sure many Greggs customers would Beiruting for that. #badumtss

 

[Skeptic]

Funny old world, as I don't disagree with your logic but disagree with the conclusion.

Greggs has a vertically integrated supply chain. My reading of their strategy/finances is that they so wholly dominate that space on the high street that new start ups will be crushed.

Of course there will be competition in the fast-snack space, but really who do you see challenging Greggs? They have control of practically every variable in their operations - of course barring black swan events!

Say there's a prolonged recession - how are premium operators going to cope with a place that can feed a family for a fiver or thereabouts? Greggs will screw down their prices and costs to such a degree that it's almost unfair. The Lebanese place will exist - sure - but can they scale to in any way challenge such an established player?

The footfall drop is a challenge, but unless this virus has caused a fundamental shift in the way towns and cities work, then it's only a matter of time until things revert to the mean.

Of course there is a bear case. Your point about tastes changing being a true one. As is competition from the supermarkets who dominate too and can use the same strategy of driving down prices.

I view Greggs as like McDonald's - a stalwart of the HS which, like it or loathe it, is part of public consciousness and will take a while to shift.

 

[Fusion]

I'm not sure many Greggs customers would Beiruting for that. #badumtss

Humour and share chat are a welcome mix!

Funny old world, as I don't disagree with your logic but disagree with the conclusion.

Greggs has a vertically integrated supply chain. My reading of their strategy/finances is that they so wholly dominate that space on the high street that new start ups will be crushed.

Of course there will be competition in the fast-snack space, but really who do you see challenging Greggs? They have control of practically every variable in their operations - of course barring black swan events!

Say there's a prolonged recession - how are premium operators going to cope with a place that can feed a family for a fiver or thereabouts? Greggs will screw down their prices and costs to such a degree that it's almost unfair. The Lebanese place will exist - sure - but can they scale to in any way challenge such an established player?

The footfall drop is a challenge, but unless this virus has caused a fundamental shift in the way towns and cities work, then it's only a matter of time until things revert to the mean.

Of course there is a bear case. Your point about tastes changing being a true one. As is competition from the supermarkets who dominate too and can use the same strategy of driving down prices.

I view Greggs as like McDonald's - a stalwart of the HS which, like it or loathe it, is part of public consciousness and will take a while to shift.

Sounds like you've done your homework and thought it through. Who would you say their main competitors are? From the PoV of a customer, whenever i've used their stores, they seem like a solid operation. As you imply, perhaps their main strength is how lean and efficient their supply chain is.

 

[ivrytwr3]

Any thoughts on HSBC and BP?

Sold off some crypto so thinking about putting a little into these.

 

[Skeptic]

Humour and share chat are a welcome mix!



Sounds like you've done your homework and thought it through. Who would you say their main competitors are? From the PoV of a customer, whenever i've used their stores, they seem like a solid operation. As you imply, perhaps their main strength is how lean and efficient their supply chain is.

Oddly their main competitors are, imo, boots (meal deal), subway and the big supermarkets. I think the Starbucks of this world are more premium - a family of 4 would be, what...£20?

With that said, I don't see these as direct competition. If you just want a quick snack, what better than a little pizza slice or pasty for a couple of quid? Add a coffee for a quid and you've a nice lunch.

I think one of their strengths is their marketing. Their social media game is on point, and you'll have seen the frenzy over the vegan rolls!

I really do think the road ahead is bumpy and results won't be pretty. But I'd say they're priced in to an extent - it'll not surprise people that they've sold nothing!

I've traded it a little and been lucky, but my lth position will be added to over time. See potential 20-30% upside to current prices and possibly in short order.

 

[DarrenM343]

Any thoughts on HSBC and BP?

Sold off some crypto so thinking about putting a little into these.

Two difficult sectors atm IMO. Not saying bad choices necessarily but quietly being talked about are more banks in trouble (again) and oil companies, although in the case of oil, probably not the majors like Shell or BP. But if you must, pick the best in each sector. I hold some in both sectors but if building a portfolio right now I don't think these would be first on my list. Contrarian long term hold? Sure. BP does atm pay a good dividend (10%) but that could be slashed, who knows?

I'd be temped to just buy a FTSE 100 ETF or mid 250 to capture a general recovery. But, I think markets have further to fall,IMO, so I'd at least keep some funds available for buying lower.

 

[Fusion]

Any thoughts on HSBC and BP?

Sold off some crypto so thinking about putting a little into these.

Have a hunt for my post on HSBC a while back.

 

[FMF]

Problem with Greggs is regardless of high street domination will footfall ever recover to pre-lockdown levels?

I think not, with some level of WFH now a really possibility for the majority of office roles, this will impact the lunchtime rush big time.

 

[wesimmo]

Just to confirm, the volatility of the markets earlier this year made it really easy to make money while virtual trading on 212.

I'm still massively up at 44% over 3 months. But significantly down over the last month. At one point I was over 100% up.

 

[joelk2]

Sold all my nio stocks last week after a 70% gain on them. They are up to $14 now. Ffs

 

[Efour]

Theres so much talks of Greggs on here. Are you guys serious or is it Corner sofa, im not a shop, Gucci belt nonsense.
Why on earth would you invest in a bakery over a "real" company.

Am i dissing Greggs too much ?

 

[DarrenM343]

Just had a thought. Over in the US they're all hyped about the likes of Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Google etc. UK, yep, it's Greggs, good old sausage rolls & pasties .
The good tech companies we seem to have lost abroad, such as ARM technologies.
Can anyone think of any up and coming or exciting tech stocks here?