Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Psycho Sonny · 26 Oct 2021 at 13:14

Tesla's future gains are already priced in. This was unexpected news but seems a bit of a fools errand.

For example. Company X has great potential. Everyone knows this. Their product is the future and they have a great team behind them. So even though they aren't making any money their share price goes through the roof based on future projections.

Then some good news comes and it goes up again. But wait a minute. This was already accounted for in the first place it's just more money on top of what's already an overpriced stock.

It's why people say buy the rumour sell the news. But this seems to be a case of just buy more when the news is released. That's not sustainable going forwards even if it does hold. I just don't see how.

Is Tesla even profitable yet especially with the chip shortage and all? Seems like another evergrande when one day they will get too big and those loans will be called in.

b-r0ck · 26 Oct 2021 at 13:19

removed

Dr House · 26 Oct 2021 at 14:06

Sold out my Tesla at 1019

it’s mad. They sold 4.3b with of cars to company worth 12b. Probably made 0.8B profit on the sale and market cap went up 120b.

I’m not complaining as I made a fat profit and doubled down on NIO but it seems a bit too much to me.

Kreeeee · 26 Oct 2021 at 14:15

Journey · 26 Oct 2021 at 14:24

Psycho Sonny said:
Is Tesla even profitable yet especially with the chip shortage and all? Seems like another evergrande when one day they will get too big and those loans will be called in.

They have about ~$5B, vs Ford's ~$146B, and yes they are making a good profit every quarter now, Q3 was $1.62B

jsmoke · 26 Oct 2021 at 14:32

Nice early start. But will it last.

booyaka · 26 Oct 2021 at 14:45

brodlum said:
Right? It's just the same **** with GameStop. They're not even that nice cars to be in, materials all feel so cheap.

I think your missing the fact that Tesla don't just make cars...A large % of their profit comes from selling regulatory credits to other manufacturers - And also the battery tech etc. The quality of their cars are up for debate (no issues with mine) but to suggest that it's anything like Gamstop is just pure nonsense.

booyaka · 26 Oct 2021 at 14:53

Psycho Sonny said:
Tesla's future gains are already priced in. This was unexpected news but seems a bit of a fools errand.

Curious to know what you mean by future gains priced in already? To what extent? Like ever? Never to rise above their current value?

Or do you mean over the next 3/6 months - the future gains are priced in. Could you expand on that.

I think there is a small pull back coming on Tesla (back to the 900's), but personally I think the rise continues.... Model Y sales in Europe are starting to take off, Gigafactory in German coming online soon as well as Austin pushing production to around 2million units a year.

Cyber truck and semi truck 2023 onwards

p/e was around 1000 a few months back it's now 333 or so.

The biggest danger to the stock price is Elon himself...You never know what your going to get with him sometimes.

englishpremier · 26 Oct 2021 at 15:05

booyaka said:
I think your missing the fact that Tesla don't just make cars...A large % of their profit comes from selling regulatory credits to other manufacturers - And also the battery tech etc. The quality of their cars are up for debate (no issues with mine) but to suggest that it's anything like Gamstop is just pure nonsense.

It is supposedly profitable without the credit sales now. The batteries are Panasonic and couple of other companies now, so the physical batteries themselves aren't Tesla tech. Tesla's technology will be in the software BMS. It's the profit margins where Tesla is really shining, they are nearly double the industry average.

booyaka said:
Curious to know what you mean by future gains priced in already? To what extent? Like ever? Never to rise above their current value?

Its PS he always says it's all priced in or something is about to happen since Michael Burry said so, then instead the markets reach new ATH or get close, or the company does on rise in value. He's not necessarily wrong, but doesn't give timeframes and his delivery leaves his posts open to confrontation.

Psycho Sonny · 26 Oct 2021 at 15:40

booyaka said:
Curious to know what you mean by future gains priced in already? To what extent? Like ever? Never to rise above their current value?

Or do you mean over the next 3/6 months - the future gains are priced in. Could you expand on that.

I think there is a small pull back coming on Tesla (back to the 900's), but personally I think the rise continues.... Model Y sales in Europe are starting to take off, Gigafactory in German coming online soon as well as Austin pushing production to around 2million units a year.

Cyber truck and semi truck 2023 onwards

p/e was around 1000 a few months back it's now 333 or so.

The biggest danger to the stock price is Elon himself...You never know what your going to get with him sometimes.

Microsoft - Worth 2 times what Tesla is at 2 trillion roughly
Microsoft - Makes 10 times the profit that Tesla makes on a yearly basis regularly however this is the first time Tesla has ever made a profit, the previous 4 years show huge losses. Tesla also hasn't paid a dividend, whereas MS does and their latest one was pretty decent for a quarterly dividend announcement.

Tesla went from $45 dollars to $1000 dollars inside 2 years. It's done extremely well. In fact that is crypto type gains. I just don't see how it just keeps on going up from here on in, it has to peak at some point and unless you know something about how they are going to get 5-10 times the profit they did this year next year or the year after then their future gains are already priced in until that point that they do start making 5-10 times the profit they are currently.

The problem Tesla has is their vehicles are out of reach for the majority of people. The average UK wage is what somewhere between £25k-£35K? Their cars start at like £40K, second hand they don't lose much value either and then after 10 years repairs on the battery will be far too expensive for your average person too and electronics aren't really built to last longer than 10 years either, boards and chips will start failing. The next leg up is if they make a breakthrough and are able to make a car for the masses. If they do that then I would say Tesla is worth a punt and should shoot up until then I think their gains are pretty much priced in for the next few years however there is enough people out there who will just keep buying because it's tesla and there isn't anything else they see on the market.

You are now hoping as an investor Tesla makes 25% ROI per year for the next 4-6 years at best. You could make that in a day/week/month on other stocks. However it's easy just to see that and invest in Tesla and then it ends up making more because literally everyone keeps on buying it. It's a high-growth stock with high earnings multiples. You should know better than anyone that is extremely risky.

What price is the cyber truck and semi truck going to launch at and who is the target markets? That's the elephant in the room. They are going to run out of target market sooner rather than later. So how do they decrease their high earnings multiplier if they run out of buyers for their products?

How many people do you know own cars worth anything a tesla is worth and how many of them are converts to Tesla? I only know 1 and I'm pretty sure it's a company car. Because of the tax benefits. So I do see potential to convert the rest but not all of them will go down that route and majority never will.

booyaka · 26 Oct 2021 at 16:05

Psycho Sonny said:
SNIP.

If the "you" in your post above is aimed at me - For the record, I'm NOT a Tesla investor (except some exposure via Scottish Mortgage Trust which I am a huge fan of), but I own a Tesla.

Appreciate your response but to say Tesla is going to run out of target market is ridiculous.... Just like anything else, people finance vehicles/ lease them and at £400 a month that's nothing to lease a M3 etc....

Also with the ban on sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 in the UK (small market I agree), people will have to consider moving over to some form of electric car at some point...Company in pole position is undoubtedly Tesla.... Whether that brand recognition / cars choice / tax benefits etc....

It's all debate and speculation - no one knows anything for certain....

Psycho Sonny · 26 Oct 2021 at 16:32

booyaka said:
If the "you" in your post above is aimed at me - For the record, I'm NOT a Tesla investor (except some exposure via Scottish Mortgage Trust which I am a huge fan of), but I own a Tesla.

Appreciate your response but to say Tesla is going to run out of target market is ridiculous.... Just like anything else, people finance vehicles/ lease them and at £400 a month that's nothing to lease a M3 etc....

Also with the ban on sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 in the UK (small market I agree), people will have to consider moving over to some form of electric car at some point...Company in pole position is undoubtedly Tesla.... Whether that brand recognition / cars choice / tax benefits etc....

It's all debate and speculation - no one knows anything for certain....

The idea that everyone is going to pay £5k and then £400+ per month to lease a Tesla in future because it's electric isn't viable

dlockers · 26 Oct 2021 at 16:33

Up 7.5% on Thungela what's our next move @Psycho Sonny

Psycho Sonny · 26 Oct 2021 at 16:36

dLockers said:
Up 7.5% on Thungela what's our next move @Psycho Sonny

Lol not giving any more tips pointless on here

dlockers · 26 Oct 2021 at 16:43

Psycho Sonny said:
Lol not giving any more tips pointless on here

Don't cut me off man

Psycho Sonny · 26 Oct 2021 at 16:52

dLockers said:
Don't cut me off man

Should have doubled your money on KISTOS. Thungela still has legs in it for the next 6 months

Russinating · 26 Oct 2021 at 19:01

booyaka said:
Curious to know what you mean by future gains priced in already? To what extent? Like ever? Never to rise above their current value?

It's true as a fundamental. That and dividends are the only reason to buy (or sell) shares... but you know that.

But the market clearly thought a $4bn order was unexpected, which it is. It's quite significant really, not just as a single order but as a sign of general market uptake of EVs and the feasibility of shifting such a large fleet of vehicles to EV. If anything you could argue the rental/hire market would be the most difficult to implement EVs.

b-r0ck · 27 Oct 2021 at 01:53

booyaka said:
I think your missing the fact that Tesla don't just make cars...A large % of their profit comes from selling regulatory credits to other manufacturers - And also the battery tech etc. The quality of their cars are up for debate (no issues with mine) but to suggest that it's anything like Gamstop is just pure nonsense.

Fair point, I don't believe what I said earlier really accurately reflects my views. It's not the same as GameStop, but it is, however, similarly overhyped and overvalued.

Yes, they make a huge amount from the selling of credits, but that's not really a viable long term strategy.

mid_gen · 27 Oct 2021 at 08:28

Certain stocks/brands just have a halo effect that enables them to extract way more margin than their competitors (see Apple). It's difficult to call out Tesla as overvalued in an inflationary world where electric cars are poised to take over ICE and Tesla have such a headstart.

I wouldn't buy in at this point, but I'd sure as hell hold if it was for my pension pot. If I was shorter term trading I'd have sold those gains and look for a pullback to re-enter.

mid_gen · 27 Oct 2021 at 09:57

dLockers said:
Up 7.5% on Thungela what's our next move @Psycho Sonny

Down...apparently