Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Rroff]

Brimstone an anti ship missile what.

Are we talking very small and close ships.

Although optimised against swarming small craft, etc. multiple hits with Brimstone/Sea Spear can significantly disrupt the ability even for a larger ship to operate properly, potentially even sink it if it gets fires started which can't easily be contained. It isn't exactly the optimal weapon for the job but if it is something which Ukraine can operate with limited training and logistics, etc. it is effective enough to be better than nothing. (It will easily penetrate standard armour levels on frigates and cruisers, etc.)

EDIT: Probably more in the capacity here but it has significant deterrent factor against an amphibious assault where it can be deadly for landing forces.

 

[Turn]

*UK Prime Minister Johnson Underscored The Critical Need For Further Military Support To Ukraine In Call With Western Leaders - UK Readout
*UK Prime Minister Johnson And Western Leaders Also Discussed The Need To Increase The Pressure On Russia With More Sanctions And Diplomatic Isolation

*Ukrainian Presidential Adviser: Russia Is Hitting Mariupol’s Azovstal Factory With Anti-Bunker Bombs

 

[Malevolence]

Brimstone an anti ship missile what.

Are we talking very small and close ships.

You don't need to sink a ship with a hit from large AShMs, a salvo of three Sea Spears (Naval Brimstones) hitting the ship in specific points can put the entire ship out of service and/or set off a chain reaction leading to it sinking.

 

[Hotwired]

Sea Spear already exists

And I see it's for small and close boats as expected.

It's a completely different league of target compared to the 10x larger neptune missile that ukraine used.

 

[Turn]

*UK MoD - 'Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 19 April 2022'

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1516488853187710984

 

[Rroff]

And I see it's for small and close boats as expected.

It's a completely different league of target compared to the 10x larger neptune missile that ukraine used.

They are not ineffective against a larger ship however - much of the mid-sized ships have quite limited armour except in specific points and a missile like Brimstone can be targetted for strategic weak points (the shaped charge on Brimstone can still punch through quite a lot of armour even on bigger ships) - a few of them hitting can easily put a frigate or cruiser type ship out of action for a meaningful amount of time, even with a bit of luck set off enough of a chain of events to sink it.

For Ukraine who like StriderX says are employing something more akin to Fabian strategy the use of relatively portable systems which can disrupt enemy operations while having minimal exposure of the operator are a huge advantage.

 

[Turn]

*Pentagon’s John Kirby Speaks - https://youtu.be/eOzSd2pebdk
*Pentagon’s John Kirby: 'Realm Of Possible' Ukraine Will Want More Artillery
*Pentagon’s John Kirby: Ukraine Has Received Additional Military Aircraft And Aircraft Parts
*Pentagon’s John Kirby: No Indication Western-Provided Arms Hit By Russia
*Pentagon’s John Kirby: Russia Still Has Much Combat Capability

*Canada Will Be Sending Heavy Artillery To Ukraine, More Details To Come Soon - Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

 

[Iraklis F.C.]

shall we call it a victory if by the 9th of May putin has nothing to show to his people? Also, i expect an increase in fighting the next 2 weeks?

 

[Rroff]

shall we call it a victory if by the 9th of May putin has nothing to show to his people? Also, i expect an increase in fighting the next 2 weeks?

I'm seeing more and more talk from people inside Russia or connected to Russia that the 9th is being reframed more towards a possible call to arms/mobilisation than a victory event. They'll probably make 1-2 more attempts at pushes for some kind of victory conditions but most likely we'll see one or more false flag events intended to build up support in Russia (population outrage, etc.) for taking things to another level.

 

[bingham67]

Be nice if Ukraine could blow some of them bombers out the sky.

 

[NickK]

You don't need to sink a ship with a hit from large AShMs, a salvo of three Sea Spears (Naval Brimstones) hitting the ship in specific points can put the entire ship out of service and/or set off a chain reaction leading to it sinking.

only about 80mile (128km) range though for the spear 3. Good for close range given the larger neptune range is 300km.. the salvo approach makes it difficult for low cost drone launch given weight and payload.

 

[the wopster]

Be nice if Ukraine could blow some of them bombers out the sky.

Be nice if some Ukrainians could set up a nice little surprise in Moscow during the victory parade on the 8th

 

[Turn]

*IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas: Not Expecting 'Bounce Back' In Russian Economy, Sees Further Drop In Output Growth In 2023
*IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas: Sanctions On Russia Could Be In Place 'For Quite A Long Time,' Impact Would Be Even Larger If Energy Exports Hit
*IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas: Sees No 'Bounce Back' In Russian Economy, Warns Of Further Damage If Sanctions Expanded

 

[Rroff]

Be nice if some Ukrainians could set up a nice little surprise in Moscow during the victory parade on the 8th

Overall probably not a good idea - as much as hitting the victory parade would make a statement, they are not active combat vehicles and it would also likely galvanise public support in Russia the wrong way with a visual destruction of their forces on home territory in such a way.

 

[Mr Jack]

shall we call it a victory if by the 9th of May putin has nothing to show to his people? Also, i expect an increase in fighting the next 2 weeks?

There is no victory here. The best outcome is that Ukraine is able to establish itself as an independent state, sufficiently tied to powerful allies, that it can prevent future Russian aggression. But that cannot undo the death, atrocities, and economic harm already done.

Beating Russia past May 9th, and doing it without a nuclear strike, is a win for the West, but the story isn't over until Russia withdraws.

 

[the wopster]

Overall probably not a good idea - as much as hitting the victory parade would make a statement, they are not active combat vehicles and it would also likely galvanise public support in Russia the wrong way with a visual destruction of their forces on home territory in such a way.

What’s good for the goose springs to mind

 

[Hook]

Overall probably not a good idea - as much as hitting the victory parade would make a statement, they are not active combat vehicles and it would also likely galvanise public support in Russia the wrong way with a visual destruction of their forces on home territory in such a way.

Putin could be planning a false flag event day parade the 9th.

 

[Rroff]

Putin could be planning a false flag event day parade the 9th.

Definitely a possibility given it would likely increase public support within Russia for the war.

Beating Russia past May 9th, and doing it without a nuclear strike, is a win for the West, but the story isn't over until Russia withdraws.

I'm not convinced we will see Russia withdraw unless militarily utterly spent. As this drags on they'll likely reshape their military industrial capabilities to pump out basic model T-72s, BTRs, howitzers, Grads, SU-27 and 25, Mi-17 or whichever variant can be cheaply and quickly put together and thrown into combat along with increasing numbers of conscripts. The grinder will probably go on until the destruction of either Ukraine or Russia (unless Russian public turns wholesale against their leaders which is unlikely and/or Lavrov and Putin die without leaving a self-reinforcing legacy as I don't get the impression those below them have the same appetite if given free will) - not an appealing thought.

With a chance that if Russia was losing catastrophically of going nuclear as per doctrine.

EDIT: I get the feeling we are in for a long slog from here globally which is going to wear a lot of people's will down - this is likely not going to be an over by Christmas situation.

 

[Mr Jack]

I'm not convinced we will see Russia withdraw unless militarily utterly spent. As this drags on they'll likely reshape their military industrial capabilities to pump out basic model T-72s, BTRs, howitzers, Grads, SU-27 and 25, Mi-17 or whichever variant can be cheaply and quickly put together and thrown into combat along with increasing numbers of conscripts. The grinder will probably go on until the destruction of either Ukraine or Russia (unless Russian public turns wholesale against their leaders which is unlikely and/or Lavrov and Putin die without leaving a self-reinforcing legacy as I don't get the impression those below them have the same appetite if given free will) - not an appealing thought.

Russia can't even remotely hope to win such a war. Their comedy economy is incapable of making even the most basic of parts for these tanks, whilst Ukraine is backed by the entire Western world. The only possible hope they have is to get Chinese backing, but that doesn't come free. They'll be selling the family silver for a hope at getting slightly less humiliatingly battered. Russia fighting on their military industrial merits means a post-war Russia hollowed out from the inside with nothing to show for it.

Obviously, it's still a disaster for Ukraine but Russia gives not a snot about that.

Russia can either win some kind of mild victory relatively quickly, it can get utterly destroyed in a long war, or it can go nuclear and God alone knows how that goes. At each escalation things get worse for Russia but - like a drunk in Vegas - Putin may well decide that double-or-nothing is his only way out.

 

[Grim5]

Overall probably not a good idea - as much as hitting the victory parade would make a statement, they are not active combat vehicles and it would also likely galvanise public support in Russia the wrong way with a visual destruction of their forces on home territory in such a way.

agreed, it's a good way to get Moscow to nuke Kyiv