Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Mr Jack said:
Their comedy economy is incapable of making even the most basic of parts for these tanks, whilst Ukraine is backed by the entire Western world. The only possible hope they have is to get Chinese backing, but that doesn't come free. They'll be selling the family silver for a hope at getting slightly less humiliatingly battered. Russia fighting on their military industrial merits means a post-war Russia hollowed out from the inside with nothing to show for it.
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IMO Russia isn't thinking like you (and others) are thinking - they will attempt to bring the rest of the world down to their level if they can rather than worry about being hollowed out from the inside in the longer run. Same as people thinking Putin has an interest in or will settle for an off-ramp. They may also believe in the longer run they can recover because countries will lap up their gas, etc. cheaply when it comes to it.

Russia can go North Korea style, the West can't/won't have the will for it, that will take out some of the economic disparity when it comes to supplying the military for the long slog. Though Russia isn't a closed system if mobilised for a war effort they have all the resources, experience and manpower there to build a ready supply of basic military equipment and ordinance, the only thing they can't really do is produce hardware in any quantity which relies on semiconductors more advanced than 1-2 decades old tech (I doubt even then their domestic semiconductor fabrication can scale up to support a larger war effort for many years even under a war time situation).
 
Grim5 said:
agreed, it's a good way to get Moscow to nuke Kyiv
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Doing so would necessitate a hard retaliation on the part of Russia but I believe Russia will stick to their doctrine when it comes to nuclear, Putin hasn't gone completely bat **** crazy on the other hand I don't think if it came to it he'd stop short of the nuclear option when doctrine demanded it despite what people like to think. Pretty much every move so far Russia has stuck to doctrine even when it has been detrimental to their efforts and forces.
 
Rroff said:
IMO Russia isn't thinking like you (and others) are thinking - they will attempt to bring the rest of the world down to their level if they can rather than worry about being hollowed out from the inside in the longer run.
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I agree. There's an interesting divide in the analysis I read between people who think that Putin is nuts and people who think Putin is coldly rational but playing a different game. To some extent, though, it doesn't matter. You can't, by definition, predict an irrational opponent so you may as well proceed as if they are.

Russia can go North Korea style, the West can't/won't have the will for it, that will take out some of the economic disparity when it comes to supplying the military for the long slog.
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This isn't symmetric, only Russia is going North Korea here. Even if China entirely embargoed the West (which is 100% implausible) as a result of the conflict, two-thirds of the world economy is still on the Western side. The hits to the West are annoying to democracy, the hits to Russia are crippling.

Though Russia isn't a closed system if mobilised for a war effort they have all the resources, experience and manpower there to build a ready supply of basic military equipment and ordinance, the only thing they can't really do is produce hardware in any quantity which relies on semiconductors more advanced than 1-2 decades old tech (I doubt even then their domestic semiconductor fabrication can scale up to support a larger war effort for many years even under a war time situation).
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Russia has no independent manufacturing ability that isn't at least 40 years out of date. Its manufacturing is entirely dependent on Western technology which it can't build, can't repair, and can't supply spares for. Russia currently can't even make ball bearings, FFS. Now, of course, kick off the war and they'll step a whole load of that up, but it's won't be current gen military level, probably not even last gen, and as we saw in the Iraq wars when modern military equipment crushes older equipment in a way that you simply can't make up for by throwing bodies at the line.

And that's ignoring the massive political issue involved, in order to do this Russia would have to twirl on a dime and give power to the exact same people that Putin has been undermining through his entire premiership. The same people who have no vested interested in Vlad remaining on top.
 
It would surprise me if Putin puts a false flag in the parade. Simply to drive public opinion

putin simply wants to firelight the national response to oppression, with wars being common it’s seen by the public as the rule to solve negotiation rather than the EU view of war as an exception. Russians are taught to sacrifice all for the motherland.. gangsters using the public. The olligarchs and generals are sacrificed to propagate the myth that the ruling class are leading the way. Thrown to the slaughter just as we’ve witnessed with 7th/9th? General dead in combat.
It seems that the dead generals probably is part of the FSB plan to garner support from the public.

It will be interesting to see china’s reaction wrt the G20..
 
Mr Jack said:
Russia has no independent manufacturing ability that isn't at least 40 years out of date. Its manufacturing is entirely dependent on Western technology which it can't build, can't repair, and can't supply spares for. Russia currently can't even make ball bearings, FFS. Now, of course, kick off the war and they'll step a whole load of that up, but it's won't be current gen military level, probably not even last gen, and as we saw in the Iraq wars when modern military equipment crushes older equipment in a way that you simply can't make up for by throwing bodies at the line.
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They don't need to be doing anything other than pumping out 40+ year old hardware to keep up their current campaign - the levels of attrition unless Ukraine does get a good compliment of F-16 or newer capability fighter jets, more modern tanks, etc. Russia can keep sustaining for a long time yet. Stuff like nlaws and so on do change the balance but they are a poor substitute for actually having a fully modern combined arms force as the West was using in Iraq, etc.

(Which is why Zelensky is getting agitated by the lack of willingness to supply such).


Quartz said:
That's not correct. I know a guy who set up factories in Russia to support the oil industry.
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But they rely on Western sourced components for maintenance, etc. as covered in Mr Jack's post. In terms of fully domestic industry Russia is more limited but it is easy to see it through the filter of a peace time situation as many people do.
 
Past 1hr:
*U.S. President Biden, Asked If He Would Visit Kyiv, Says He Does Not Know — Reuters
*Russia Sent More Troops To Launch An Offensive In Eastern Ukraine
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-asked-visit-kyiv-says-203711424.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...312256-bfa9-11ec-b5df-1fba61a66c75_story.html

*Brazil Economy Minister Guedes: We Will Probably Tame Inflation Faster Than Advanced Economies
*Brazil Economy Minister Guedes: Perfect Timing Is Now For Brazilian Accession To OECD, Brazil Is A Key Player In Food And Energy Security
*Brazil Economy Minister Guedes: If OECD Accession And Mercosur-EU Trade Agreement Do Not Happen Brazilian Economy Will Be Drifted In Other Direction, To Asia, Middle East
*Brazil Economy Minister Guedes: We Clearly Condemn Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine, But Our Constitution Is Against Economic Sanctions
*Brazil Economy Minister Guedes: We Can't Kick Russia Out Of Multilateral Bodies
*Brazil Economy Minister Guedes: Brazil Won't Support Russia Removal From IMF, World Bank

*IMF's Baseline Forecasts Project Inflation Peak In Second Quarter, Anticipate That Supply Chain Disruptions Ease And Withdrawal Of Fiscal Support Cools Demand -Gourinchas
*IMF's Gourinchas: War Is 'Piling On' An Already Elevated Inflation Environment, Increases Risk Of 'Jolt' Away From Stable Price Environment
*IMF's Gourinchas: If Inflation Remains Elevated For More Than A Couple More Months In Advanced Economies And Wage Pressures Continue To Rise, Will Likely See More Aggressive Monetary Policy Tightening
 
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Mr Jack said:
Russia has no independent manufacturing ability that isn't at least 40 years out of date. Its manufacturing is entirely dependent on Western technology which it can't build, can't repair, and can't supply spares for. Russia currently can't even make ball bearings, FFS. Now, of course, kick off the war and they'll step a whole load of that up, but it's won't be current gen military level, probably not even last gen, and as we saw in the Iraq wars when modern military equipment crushes older equipment in a way that you simply can't make up for by throwing bodies at the line.

.
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youre wrong, just because the internet is full of russian tanks exploding and their army halted doesnt mean they are useless, they are reliant on western tech less than we are reliant on chinese crap.
 
Quartz said:
That's not correct. I know a guy who set up factories in Russia to support the oil industry.
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Did those factories entirely rely on Russian made equipment? I never know how much weight to put on various sources, but I find this thread aligns with what I've read elsewhere.

Rroff said:
They don't need to be doing anything other than pumping out 40+ year old hardware to keep up their current campaign - the levels of attrition unless Ukraine does get a good compliment of F-16 or newer capability fighter jets, more modern tanks, etc. Russia can keep sustaining for a long time yet. Stuff like nlaws and so on do change the balance but they are a poor substitute for actually having a fully modern combined arms force as the West was using in Iraq, etc.
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I hope Ukraine will eventually get the good ****, but even without it, it seems to me that Ukraine will comfortably win any war of attrition. It's certainly true that an NLAW is no match for proper combined arms but dollar-for-dollar against Russian armour, this is a 10- or 100- fold multiplier and the Ukrainians aren't really paying for it anyway. Whilst Russia's economy is tanking (lol, I maded a pun!) the West isn't. Even here in Germany, if Scholz did step up and cut Russian fossil fuels, the estimates are about 1-2% of GDP - the kind of thing that loses elections but not any kind of existential crisis. And Russia's economy wasn't exactly impressive to start with: depending on which estimate you believe Russia economy is around 50-60% the size of the UK alone, scattered among over twice the population and based on extraction rather than production. Put the shoulders of the UK, Japan, the USA, and the EU together and Russia's capabilities are laughable in comparison.
 
Iraklis F.C. said:
youre wrong, just because the internet is full of russian tanks exploding and their army halted doesnt mean they are useless, they are reliant on western tech less than we are reliant on chinese crap.
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Russian military is not useless they just can't go anywhere because they have no logistics
 
Grim5 said:
Russian military is not useless they just can't go anywhere because they have no logistics
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That's true but doesn't tell whole story in as much as they keep on making the same mistakes over and over again such long arse convoys that are continually getting hammered by mobile Ukrainian forces and artillery. Attacking in unfavourable conditions, use of poorly trained conscripts, using Ukrainian mobile networks and carriers to send orders to front line units, the loss of their Black Sea flag ship, unable to protect it's own airspace the list goes on.......
 
Iraklis F.C. said:
youre wrong, just because the internet is full of russian tanks exploding and their army halted doesnt mean they are useless, they are reliant on western tech less than we are reliant on chinese crap.
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I didn't say it was crap, I said Russia is incapable of making it independently - all of the best Russian manufacturing uses tools from Germany, Japan, etc. As for our dependence on China, that's very true of our general economy but it is not true of our military: between Germany, France, Britain, and the UK we can pump out basically anything we need to fight a war and, because we're working together to do it, we can do it far more efficiently than any of these countries could alone.
 
Mr Jack said:
Did those factories entirely rely on Russian made equipment? I never know how much weight to put on various sources, but I find this thread aligns with what I've read elsewhere.
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Thing is in the longer run Russia is much less impacted by that kind of collapse than the West would be. Agree there is the complication with corruption and power, especially empowering the kind of people who would be a threat to Putin, but in the longer run that will be weeded out albeit you end up with a level of efficiency and quality of product far behind ideal but that is something Russia is used to working with.

Russia will go much further down that road at the very least before changing direction if it comes to it than those in the West would logically believe.

Freddie1980 said:
That's true but doesn't tell whole story in as much as they keep on making the same mistakes over and over again such long arse convoys that are continually getting hammered by mobile Ukrainian forces and artillery. Attacking in unfavourable conditions, use of poorly trained conscripts, using Ukrainian mobile networks and carriers to send orders to front line units, the loss of their Black Sea flag ship, unable to protect it's own airspace the list goes on.......
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Connects to Mr Jack's link above in that in many ways the level between the upper levels of Russian government and the every day soldier are more like a mafia, they only really know one way to operate. (And a large amount of the Russian military budget as the saying goes was tied up in marinas around the Mediterranean).
 
Interestingly seen a couple of Russian YouTubers saying that YT largely isn't banned in Russia yet because "Peppa Pig" - basically it is a major source of kids cartoons/entertainment in Russia and depriving the parents and kids of that would likely produce an outcry against the authorities little else would provoke LOL.
 
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