Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

Man of Honour
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Russia's meat grinder only has so much meat left to grind. I forget exactly how much equipment they've lost but it's been between 30-50% of their total military equipment and that's in 4 months of war and making slow progress in the east. Their problem is that their military production is massively hampered by sanctions. There's footage of Russians using WW2 riffles and other outdated equipment.

Ukraine has far better quality artillery than Russia currently that is just coming into play. Artillery that has far longer range impacts that is far more accurate than Russian's have available. In theory this should mean Ukraine can pick off Russian targets that can't fire back. I saw an interview of a Ukrainian general and he was very confident once these weapons were fully deployed that Russia could be pressed back outside of Ukrainian borders

The recent shopping centre massacre does seem to be a low blowed response to the success of the damage long ranged missiles have inflicted on Russian targets.

It is up to 50% of the equipment they committed to attacking Ukraine not their total military equipment - they have vast amounts more in storage than has been used so far albeit the condition and quality is another matter.

A lot of the really outdated stuff has been supplied to LNR/DPR forces rather than being used by Russian forces.

Ukraine needs at least 5x, more like 10x as much of the better quality of artillery to be able to convincingly out gun Russia and that is still some way from being supplied if they do get the quantities required meanwhile they are starting to exhaust supplies of their run of the mill artillery systems.
 
Caporegime
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Overall Russia have gained ground, you can tell because they're in Ukraine.

The other poster was referring to when things were going well and Russia was being beaten back... if that's the reference then no, Russia has been losing ground in Ukraine.

* Is Russia currently recovering land it lost since March? Yes, but very very slowly - and at the current pace it will take many years to take the whole country

What land is it recovering that it lost since March?

It is making some new gains in the East at great cost but simultaneously losing ground in the South.
 
Associate
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Oh, OK, it's one of those... "What is the definition of a win" jobbies. :) Moral against military. Sounds like you are preparing for a lose scenario and getting the excuses in to me.
Being as the goal was regime change and total annexation of Ukraine and splitting NATO/EU then Russia has won very very little of what it wanted.

The fact it's Ukraine is on the way eventually to joing the EU has helped two new countries join NATO and increase the area that borders Russia, has increased the number of NATO troops on its borders ten fold.

Shown the world how weak the Russian military and thier supper weapons...are not so super after all, weakened thier economy massively and lost who knows how many young russian soldiers.


Then I guess you could be happy with your favourite dictator ' wining ' the Donbass region.
 
Soldato
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It is making some new gains in the East at great cost but simultaneously losing ground in the South.

I think my concern (whether or not it's valid I have no idea) is how long Ukraine can play this game of tug of war. Where Russia goes on the offensive, Ukraine fights back, retakes territory and pushes Russia back. Then Russia does it again, and again and again.

I feel like Ukraine are still well in the game, but how long can they sustain it? It just feels to me (maybe wrongly) that Russia can go on like this for years if it wishes and won't really care.. Will Ukraine simply run out of steam and will the west run out of will to keep supplying them with gear?
 
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I think my concern (whether or not it's valid I have no idea) is how long Ukraine can play this game of tug of war. Where Russia goes on the offensive, Ukraine fights back, retakes territory and pushes Russia back. Then Russia does it again, and again and again.

I feel like Ukraine are still well in the game, but how long can they sustain it? It just feels to me (maybe wrongly) that Russia can go on like this for years if it wishes and won't really care.. Will Ukraine simply run out of steam and will the west run out of will to keep supplying them with gear?

Indeed, Putin doesn't care how much it will cost in both material,money and men, it's all about the Russian macho image now and Russia is prepared to pay for that image no matter the costs.
 
Soldato
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You have to look at what alternatives they have. Ukraine certainly isn't going to concede defeat and roll over to the Russians. And Poland, Moldova and the other European countries won't want to have Russian troops sitting on their borders - so will continue to send arms indefinitely - even if the likes of Germany, France, UK and US back out.
 
Caporegime
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I feel like Ukraine are still well in the game, but how long can they sustain it? It just feels to me (maybe wrongly) that Russia can go on like this for years if it wishes and won't really care.. Will Ukraine simply run out of steam and will the west run out of will to keep supplying them with gear?

The longer it goes on the worse it gets for Russia. Ukraine are fighting for their very existence; their forces morale will stay higher for longer. Russia on the other hand is sending soldiers who don't want to be there to die for a cause they don't care about. Ukraine is fighting with every last thing they have; Russia is sending a small proportion of its forces into a warzone whilst still claiming not to be at war. Russia's war machine is backed by their comedy economy and tooled with machines they can't build, can't maintain, can't upgrade, and can't replace; Ukraine's homegrown stuff is pretty paltry, but it's backed by the collective West.

There is danger of the West losing interest, but with so many countries involved and some - like Poland - having such high stake interest in Ukraine's success there isn't much risk of it fading to nothing in the medium term. Particularly as we're only sending weapons; there are no grieving families in America, Poland, or Britain to march in the streets against this conflict. Russia, on the other hand, has sent tens of thousands to their death.
 
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28-Jun-2022 07:35:44 - G7 Leaders Agree to Study Potential Price Caps for Russian Oil And Gas — G7 Officials

28-Jun-2022 08:20:32 - Senior U.S. Official: G7 Will Contribute Up to $5 bln To Address Global Food Security
28-Jun-2022 08:20:32 - Senior U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Will Together Develop a Coordinated Approach to Remedying China’s Non-Market Practices to Help Ensure a Level Playing Firled for Businesses and Workers
28-Jun-2022 08:20:32 - Senior U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Will Task Ministers With “Urgently” Consulting With Third Countries to Develop A Price Cap Around Oil
28-Jun-2022 08:20:32 - Senior U.S. Official: G7 Will Commit to Removing All Forms of Forced Labour From Global Supply Chains, Including State-Sponsored Forced Labour

28-Jun-2022 08:36:37 - Spain’s Foreign Minister: Presence of Russia in North Africa Is Increasing
28-Jun-2022 08:43:26 - EU Official: G7 Declaration Set to Include Push to Ban Import of Russian Gold
28-Jun-2022 08:58:00 - Ukraine’s President: In Call With NATO Secretary General “Stressed the Importance of a Powerful Missile Defense System for Ukraine to Prevent Russian Terrorist Attacks”
28-Jun-2022 09:23:37 - British PM Johnson, Asked if G7 Leaders Had a Plan to Get Grain out of Ukraine, Said “We’re Working on It”

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28-Jun-2022 09:22:22 - UK Army Chief Patrick Sanders: In Most Scenarios Russia Will Be an Even Greater Threat to European Security After Ukraine Than Before
28-Jun-2022 09:26:45 - UK Army Chief Patrick Sanders: We Must Be Unequivocally Prepared To Fight for NATO Territory
28-Jun-2022 09:31:45 - UK Army Chief Patrick Sanders: The British Army Needs to Be Able to Mobilise Faster To Deter Threat From Russia

28-Jun-2022 09:37:57 - Turkey’s Erdogan: If Finland and Sweden Are Going to Be NATO Members, They Need To Take Turkey’s Concerns Into Consideration
28-Jun-2022 09:41:30 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Spoke to Biden This Morning, He Wants to Meet at NATO Summit in Madrid
28-Jun-2022 09:42:31 - Turkey’s Erdogan: Does Not Want Words, But Rather Results From Sweden, Finland
28-Jun-2022 09:45:25 - Turkey’s Erdogan: U.S. Stalling on F-16 Jet Procurements

28-Jun-2022 09:53:42 - G7 Leaders: Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine, Including Its Blocking of Export Routes for Ukraine´s Grain, Is Dramatically Aggravating The Hunger Crisis — Statement
28-Jun-2022 09:54:21 - G7 Leaders: We Commit to an Additional USD 4.5 Billion to Protect the Most Vulnerable From Hunger and Malnutrition
28-Jun-2022 09:54:44 - G7 Leaders: We Stand By Our Commitment to Keep Our Food and Agricultural Markets Open
28-Jun-2022 09:54:52 - G7 Leaders: We Will Step Up Our Efforts to Help Ukraine to Keep Producing Agricultural Products in View Of the Next Harvest Season
28-Jun-2022 09:55:06 - G7 Leaders: We Call on All Partners to Avoid Unjustified Restrictive Trade Measures That Increase Market Volatility and Thus The Risk of Food Insecurity
28-Jun-2022 09:55:23 - G7 Leaders: We Are Strongly Supporting UN Efforts to Unlock a Safe Maritime Corridor Through The Black Sea for Ukraine
28-Jun-2022 09:56:04 - G7 Leaders: We Will Collaborate to Identify the Provenance of Grain Imports, With the Aim of Identifying Illegally Seized Ukrainian Products
28-Jun-2022 09:56:06 - G7 Leaders: We Also Commit to Scaling Up Essential Nutrition Services in Countries With The Highest Burden of Malnutrition
28-Jun-2022 09:56:23 - G7 Leaders: We Will Continue to Ensure That Our Sanctions Packages Are Not Targeting Food and Allow for the Free Flow of Agricultural Products, Including From Russia
28-Jun-2022 09:56:55 - G7 Leaders: We Call on Those Partners With Large Food Stockpiles As Well As on the Private Sector to Make Food Available Without Distorting the Markets
 
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France plans to deliver "significant quantities" of VAB armored personnel carriers to Ukraine and is also considering the possibility of supplying Ukraine with Exocet anti-ship missiles.
VAB: http://www.military-today.com/apc/vab.htm / Exocet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet
 
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28-Jun-2022 10:38:43 - G7 Will Work on Removing All Forms of Forced Labor From Global Supply Chains, Including State-Sponsored Forced Labor, Such As in Xinjiang, China — White House Fact Sheet
28-Jun-2022 10:41:04 - G7 Underscores Commitment to Implementing G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatments — White House Fact Sheet
28-Jun-2022 10:41:49 - G7 Will Urge All Relevant Creditors, Including Non-Parisclub Countries – Such As China – and Private Creditors, to Contribute Constructively to This — White House Fact Sheet

28-Jun-2022 10:41:35 - Finland’s President: There Is Somewhat More Mutual Understanding Between Us and Turkey
28-Jun-2022 10:42:22 - Finland’s President: I Am nor Optimist or Pessimist When It Comes To the Outcome of the Negotiations With Turkey
28-Jun-2022 10:43:35 - Finland’s President: I Will Bring Up Today That Terrorism Is a Serious Concern Not Only In Turkey but Elsewhere As Well
28-Jun-2022 10:44:53 - Finland’s President: Turkey’s Claim That Finland And Sweden Would Protect Terrorists Is False

28-Jun-2022 10:50:34 - Swedish Foreign Minister Linde: Discussions With Turkey Over NATO Have Made Progress, Breakthrough Could Come Today or Take Longer Time — SVD Paper
 
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Associate
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28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin: Putin to Meet Iranian President Raisi in Ashgabat
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin: Putin to Return To Moscow on Wednesday Evening
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin: NATO Is an Aggressive Bloc Created for Confrontation
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin: ‘Special Military Operation’ in Ukraine Is Going to Plan and Will Achieve All of Its Aims
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin: Ukraine Has Carried Out Criminal Attacks Against the Inhabitants of Donbas
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin, Asked About Attack on Kremenchuk: An Explanation Was Given by the Defence Ministry About What Happened and What Was Hit
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin, Asked on G7 Proposal to Cap Price for Russian Gas, Says Gazprom May Ask for Contractual Terms to Be Revised If Proposal Comes Into Force
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin: Russia Is Not yet Aware of Full G7 Proposal to Cap Price For Russian Oil and Gas
28-Jun-2022 10:50:00 - Kremlin, Asked on Impact to State Finances From G7 Proposal to Cap Price for Russian Energy, Says Delivering on All Social Obligations Is Russia’s Main Priority

28-Jun-2022 11:00:37 - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to Join Meeting in Bali of G20 Counterparts Next Week — Russia Embassy Spokesperson
 
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Soldato
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The longer it goes on the worse it gets for Russia. Ukraine are fighting for their very existence; their forces morale will stay higher for longer. Russia on the other hand is sending soldiers who don't want to be there to die for a cause they don't care about. Ukraine is fighting with every last thing they have; Russia is sending a small proportion of its forces into a warzone whilst still claiming not to be at war. Russia's war machine is backed by their comedy economy and tooled with machines they can't build, can't maintain, can't upgrade, and can't replace; Ukraine's homegrown stuff is pretty paltry, but it's backed by the collective West.

Am I right in thinking that because of the economic sanctions, each time Russia loses a tank or an aircraft - it can't simply roll another one off of the production line to replace it, because the supply of parts and materials for these machines is being strangled by the sanctions?

In contrast to say WW2, where you had gigantic production lines of equipment being churned out as fast, or faster than they were being destroyed in combat?

If so - surely when all this is over, maybe years from now, Russia will have literally nothing and be a shadow of it's former self? (even if most of what was, was fake, exaggerated and broken)
 
Soldato
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Am I right in thinking that because of the economic sanctions, each time Russia loses a tank or an aircraft - it can't simply roll another one off of the production line to replace it, because the supply of parts and materials for these machines is being strangled by the sanctions?

In contrast to say WW2, where you had gigantic production lines of equipment being churned out as fast, or faster than they were being destroyed in combat?

If so - surely when all this is over, maybe years from now, Russia will have literally nothing and be a shadow of it's former self? (even if most of what was, was fake, exaggerated and broken)

Depends. Russia has the raw materials for most things within the country. It lacks stuff like microprocessors but it'll get those from China.
It has a problem with things like cars and passenger planes etc.. because they are mostly western equipment, same with some of its factory machinery. It would have to reverse engineer it to be able to make it in house. But for purely Russian designs, there shouldn't be an issue.

The West would probably have more issues than Russia in being able to rapidly churn out new equipment without government intervention.
 
Caporegime
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Depends. Russia has the raw materials for most things within the country. It lacks stuff like microprocessors but it'll get those from China.
It has a problem with things like cars and passenger planes etc.. because they are mostly western equipment, same with some of its factory machinery. It would have to reverse engineer it to be able to make it in house. But for purely Russian designs, there shouldn't be an issue.

Not so. Even those "purely Russian designs" are built in factories that use German and Czech machines. Those machines are not easily substituted, and are even when they are they are going to be replaced with inferior designs. Russia isn't the industrial powerhouse it was in the Soviet era, it's now closely tied to the global economy from which it has just successfully isolated itself.

And Chinese support for Russia shouldn't be overstated, many Chinese companies are refusing to deal with Russia either because of concerns over their ability to pay, or because they are concerned about reputational damage with their much more important Western customers.
 
Man of Honour
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Am I right in thinking that because of the economic sanctions, each time Russia loses a tank or an aircraft - it can't simply roll another one off of the production line to replace it, because the supply of parts and materials for these machines is being strangled by the sanctions?

In contrast to say WW2, where you had gigantic production lines of equipment being churned out as fast, or faster than they were being destroyed in combat?

If so - surely when all this is over, maybe years from now, Russia will have literally nothing and be a shadow of it's former self? (even if most of what was, was fake, exaggerated and broken)

With a massive scale mobilisation of society/industry in the longer run they could end to end rebuild the industry (from mining through to the production line) required to produce like mid to late 70s variants of their hardware - in the short to medium term though every loss takes away from their overall pool.

Any current production is limited and running on borrowed time due to the parts and maintenance situation, etc.

I think people tend to underestimate their ability to substitute production, but at the same time they are a long long way from being able to pump out modern designs, let alone high tech ones, purely domestically.
 

SPG

SPG

Soldato
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Not really, things will take a down turn of course as the economy switches to war effort mode. The complex missile systems we have now will be downgraded as time goes on etc.
 
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