Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Soldato
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He wants rubles because it's another way to prop up the failing currency.

If he forces countries to pay with rubles then it pumps hundreds of millions. if not billions of rubles back into the country,

pretty clever actually as the ruble rises and it's us (well who ever is buying the gas and oil) that is doing it.
And much like other closed currencies, it won't be an open and free market. It will say 1 rouble = X dollars.
 
Caporegime
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He wants rubles because it's another way to prop up the failing currency.

And because it is a way to soft-sanction European nations. Stopping Gas/Oil exports would hurt Russia far more than the West; but he is gambling that the West will continue buying if he demands payment in rubles while still making things worse for the West and better for Russia. I wonder whether we will have the manglobes to simply refuse and see what his next move is.
 
Soldato
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The guy's is a published economist. Wow you set a high bar, what would constitute more than unqualified forum posts?
To echo one of the six reviews this book has -

'That said, this critique has little to offer. The author spends much time critiquing standard theory and provides a very weak, hand-waving alternative with no empirical propositions and, not surprisingly, no empirical support.'

Seems his published worked is no better than his online work.
 
Soldato
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To echo one of the six reviews this book has -

'That said, this critique has little to offer. The author spends much time critiquing standard theory and provides a very weak, hand-waving alternative with no empirical propositions and, not surprisingly, no empirical support.'

Seems his published worked is no better than his online work.
You're quoting an Amazon review to debunk a guy who has managed to get book on economics published and reviewed by the Financial Times.

Wow you bit hard. I didn't think it was that controversial an open question.
 
Soldato
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:cry: You're obviously trolling me now. Why bother.
Two people responded to your post - you've picked on me because you were presumably offended by what I said/how I said it (apologies). You've ignored the other poster entirely. You have made the argument that the chap who wrote the article, two people have provided constructive discussion on, is a 'qualified author' - like that is some kind of unique attribute/conveys trust?
 
Soldato
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A short piece on Russia moving to roubles for gas and oil sales. It suggests that the sanctions have had the effect of undermining Western reserve currency status. I wonder what other peoples thoughts are? I'm not an economist but I've read a few opinion pieces on this subject they have a certain plausibility. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
The financial system relys on trust and us sanctioning random Russians and seizing their items because we think that maybe they have something to do with this does not inspire confidence.
The world is made up of more than just the west, Russia and China (contray to what some in this thread believe). They all now know that at any moment the west can and will just take their stuff without evidence or a trial, simply because they have the wrong nationality (Ironic typing this) or are friends/acquaintences with the wrong person.
The question then becomes what is the alternative.
 
Soldato
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The financial system relys on trust and us sanctioning random Russians and seizing their items because we think that maybe they have something to do with this does not inspire confidence.
The world is made up of more than just the west, Russia and China (contray to what some in this thread believe). They all now know that at any moment the west can and will just take their stuff without evidence or a trial, simply because they have the wrong nationality (Ironic typing this) or are friends/acquaintences with the wrong person.
The question then becomes what is the alternative.
LOL - yes. We sanctioned the billionaire oligarchs because they were Russian. Nothing to do with the fact that they are greasing the war machine.
 
Soldato
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What does greasing a war machine mean? Do they directly fund it? Do you have proof of that?
Yes mate totally agree until their is unequivocal evidence, in the public domain, we shouldn't at all take a punt that the billionaires in his private circle who control easily controlled assets like gas, are not at all greasing the chap who has a palace and several super yachts - despite him only earning £100k/year.
 
Soldato
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The financial system relys on trust and us sanctioning random Russians and seizing their items because we think that maybe they have something to do with this does not inspire confidence.
The world is made up of more than just the west, Russia and China (contray to what some in this thread believe). They all now know that at any moment the west can and will just take their stuff without evidence or a trial, simply because they have the wrong nationality (Ironic typing this) or are friends/acquaintences with the wrong person.
The question then becomes what is the alternative.

That was similar to what I was wondering. Not being an economist, working in investment or having a strong interest I wondered how likely it was. It sounds plausible I imagine economies of scale and all sorts of interactions will make the difference between a hypothetical and realistic risk.
 
Soldato
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What is happening right now is going to push other countries away from a centralised global financial system.

Freezing of central bank assets is actually quite a huge move because other states are prevent Russia from using their own money. This is technically not theft but technically their obligation towards Russia has been breached. Other countries might not view their reserves secured if they are parked in countries who may not be friendly in 10-20 years (Saudi Arabia for example is looking very cautiously). This of course is pushing other non-west aligned countries away from west dominated financial structure.

This conflict is in reality will help accelerate a development of new world order. Globalisation is going to wane. Previously the US dominated economically and it made sense for it to be the reserve currency. USD role as the reserve currency was already decreasing for the last 20 years and the current developments and sanctions will only accelerate the natural decline of the US influence as other major economies strengthen (in particular China and later on India).

But do not misunderstand, USD losing status as the world reserve currency is not going to destroy the US and it will not be a specific point of time with an announcement (unless we have another Bretton Woods).

What is happening right now is truly profound as it is showing that our global financial system and security systems have failed. I am very curious what new system will emerge but we already have foundations for it but I am guessing it is likely to park itself into a bipolar world as opposed to a multipolar world (until India matures) where we will have two parallel systems, one based on the US and west and other system based on China and those who do not align itself with the west.

As for reserve currencies, it will be a basket of various currencies as has been the case for the last 30 years, with US share of that basket decreasing all the way to a reasonable proportion to the share of the world economy, as it should be.
 
Soldato
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You gonna put your money in Yuan?

A bit of an odd question. I live in the UK and keep my savings in £. I am not a corporation. I am not a bank. I am not a foreign currency reserve of a country. I am not a pension fund. I am not an investment fund. I am not a hedge fund. I am not a sovereign fund.

As a citizen I do not need to Yuan but other institutions already hold Yuan to some degree, Chinese economy is second in the world, you pretty much have to at this point and as time goes on the share of Yuan in a diversified basket will only increase.
 
Soldato
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That was similar to what I was wondering. Not being an economist, working in investment or having a strong interest I wondered how likely it was. It sounds plausible I imagine economies of scale and all sorts of interactions will make the difference between a hypothetical and realistic risk.
If there is an alternative it won't be with fanfare, they will simply invest elsewhere quietly and then tell their rich mates. On the plus side London's house prices might go down:D

Yes mate totally agree until their is unequivocal evidence, in the public domain, we shouldn't at all take a punt that the billionaires in his private circle who control easily controlled assets like gas, are not at all greasing the chap who has a palace and several super yachts - despite him only earning £100k/year.
The financial system relys on trust and us sanctioning random Russians and seizing their items because we think that maybe they have something to do with this does not inspire confidence.e.
Funny that you dodged the question and simply proved part of my point.

Also lets take your statement at face value (Ignoring how narrow minded it is, to think that there is only 1 reason for buying something for someone), so what if one of them bought putin a super yacht. How is that a crime? Is this super yacht being used as part of the war effort? Is it loaded with rockets and currently bombing towns over there? What does a super yacht have to do with war?
 
Soldato
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A bit off topic, but the only reason Stalin signed a pact with Hitler was because the UK/France refused to sign a pact with him to stand united against Germany, he knew a Nazi invasion of the USSR was coming he was just trying to stall it long enough to build up the Soviet army. It worked as well because Hitler decided to take France first.

Rubbish Stalin and Hitler signed a non-agression pact and agreed to divide Poland between them russia to take the east and germany the west, which they did, the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. When Hitler reneged on teh agreement and decided to attack Russia Stalin refused to believe it. They were as bad as each other they became our allies by default i.e. my enemy's enemy is my friend that is to say a marriage of convenience. Churchill never trusted Stalin who bugged all the rooms in the place in Yalta where they signed the famous agreement, it was absolutely litered with them the secret service guys had to pull them out of everything

Well, technically, the GULAG deaths are not a war crime.

Anyway, I'm going too far off topic here.

Will be interesting to see how POWs are being handled in this conflict. There must be some, but I haven't seen much about that.

Theres unconfirmed reports from ukrainian sources saying they're being shipped off to remote places in russia and being told they can't leave for two years and have to sign a pledge to work for zero wages. The modern equivalent of the gulag. Thats ordinary citizens "liberated" from Mariupal etc not even POW's.


Footage capturing the explosion - no missiles or anything. Can grain just explode?

Dust can, flour dust is an explosion hazard just a spark can set it off if the air is laden with it. Alcohol vapour from fermentation is a potential fire hazard though thats unlikely if the grain is dry
 
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Soldato
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Also lets take your statement at face value (Ignoring how narrow minded it is, to think that there is only 1 reason for buying something for someone), so what if one of them bought putin a super yacht. How is that a crime? Is this super yacht being used as part of the war effort? Is it loaded with rockets and currently bombing towns over there? What does a super yacht have to do with war?
Your heads in the sand. If it looks like a dog, and it barks like a dog - it's probably a dog.
 
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