Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

Firestar_3x · 29 Mar 2022 at 13:50

Twinz said:
It sounds like they are trying to make a loss on the battlefield look like a good-faith gesture on their part.

Yep, plus they could be trying to get Ukraine to focus on the South so they can have another go a Kyiv at a later date.

Minusorange · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:00

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508786696783077380

I guess with peace on the table Russia are just sending hardware into Belarus in order for a "welcome of peace in Ukraine" operation

norm · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:01

Why has Russia chosen to direct so many destructive air attacks at Mariupol and not Kyiv? If they have the ability and complete disregard for civilian casualties, why not focus a barrage of bombs down on Kyiv if they want to take it so badly?

Minusorange · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:02

norm said:
Why has Russia chosen to direct so many destructive air attacks at Mariupol and not Kyiv? If they have the ability and complete disregard for civilian casualties, why not focus a barrage of bombs down on Kyiv if they want to take it so badly?

Kyiv still has a lot of air defence, it's much harder to bomb it to the ground when the bombers can't get close to it, likewise with moving artillery close enough they will get counter struck.

Freddie1980 · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:04

Hook said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508774654940520448

They need to regroup with the reserves before attacking again, with Belarus joining the war?

Lying ********. They realise they have an ice cubes chance in hell of taking Kyiv and they can't even hold onto the territory they have taken and want to retreat without losing face before their army loses all it's discipline and fall back in chaos.

Twinz · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:06

I am currious what "security guarantees" will look like. It crtainly cannot be Russia just promising not to invade again.

Maybe anex a large swath of Russia's territory to use as a DMZ between Russia and Ukraine.

I know it's unlikely Russia would accept that, but I would use it (or something similar) as a starting point for negotiations.

arknor · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:08

why would Ukraine be allowed to join the EU if the EU wants it's own army

Harlequin · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:11

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508490884794441728

Azza · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:12

So the Russians are going to get stuck in a convoy just in a different direction now?

Minusorange · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:14

arknor said:
why would Ukraine be allowed to join the EU if the EU wants it's own army

It doesn't make much sense because the EU has similar guarantees to NATO's article 5 which makes you think it's all a lie from Russia and they just want some time to regroup and rearm and probably actually plan an attack for phase 2

englishpremier · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:32

Twinz said:
I am currious what "security guarantees" will look like. It crtainly cannot be Russia just promising not to invade again.

Maybe anex a large swath of Russia's territory to use as a DMZ between Russia and Ukraine.

I know it's unlikely Russia would accept that, but I would use it (or something similar) as a starting point for negotiations.

For me a security guarantee would include a treaty signed by Russia promising no future aggression but also strong regional powers agreeing to military defend Ukraine should Russia commit further aggression.

I think if Russia backs off to the 24th Feb borders, keeps Crimea for now, and Ukraine agrees not to join NATO then that could be a good start.

Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO. Once all this is over Ukraine will likely be very pally with the west and able to by current generation western military hardware. That and keeping a large active military should be enough to deter Russia from trying again.

Twinz · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:42

If there is an agreement with other countries to militarily defend Ukraine, then "not joining NATO" becomes a difference without distinction. (Depending on which contries sign on)

This would be a win for Ukraine in my view. Hopefully Putin will see it as a good-enough face-saving maneuver to go allong with it.

Washout · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:45

norm said:
Why has Russia chosen to direct so many destructive air attacks at Mariupol and not Kyiv? If they have the ability and complete disregard for civilian casualties, why not focus a barrage of bombs down on Kyiv if they want to take it so badly?

Because their airforce will be shot down if they tried to fly over Kyiv. They can only fire stand off guided rockets from inside Russia more or less. They wouldn’t have enough for what you’re suggesting.
Mariupol doesn’t have that air cover. Besides it’s the artillery doing most of the damage there.

StuBob · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:50

bingham67 said:
Sounds like a dirty trick is at play here by Russia.

Not so much a dirty trick as a tail between their legs withdrawal. They ares struggling to even defend their positions in this area of country. This is effectively an out but also will likely see these troops move east to action areas there.

Clearcut · 29 Mar 2022 at 14:59

Is Flight radar the new Trainspotting?

bjorkiii · 29 Mar 2022 at 15:00

Im fearful of believing a word out of the Russians mouths.

Twinz · 29 Mar 2022 at 15:01

Their forces seem to have been thinned-out and their supply lines vulnerable. Concentrating on taking/holding less territory, could mitigate both of these problems for Russia.

It still seems like the underlying problem is just a general lack of force rediness. These changes may just serve as a temporary bandaid.

grudas · 29 Mar 2022 at 15:17

you can't trust russians at this stage. They'll be back for more, they're simply asking for time to re-group and replan. I'd be very surprised if they walk away.

NickK · 29 Mar 2022 at 15:23

englishpremier said:
For me a security guarantee would include a treaty signed by Russia promising no future aggression but also strong regional powers agreeing to military defend Ukraine should Russia commit further aggression.

I think if Russia backs off to the 24th Feb borders, keeps Crimea for now, and Ukraine agrees not to join NATO then that could be a good start.

Ukraine doesn't need to join NATO. Once all this is over Ukraine will likely be very pally with the west and able to by current generation western military hardware. That and keeping a large active military should be enough to deter Russia from trying again.

Perhaps a default clause - Ukraine will remain neutral except if Russia invades Ukraine or expands control (geographically or politically) then Ukraine defaults to NATO membership.

That way if Russia doesn't invade it gets what it wants. If they do invade then Ukraine is NATO and Putin gets the mother load.

Hotwired · 29 Mar 2022 at 15:33

NickK said:
Perhaps a default clause - Ukraine will remain neutral except if Russia invades Ukraine or expands control (geographically or politically) then Ukraine defaults to NATO membership.

That way if Russia doesn't invade it gets what it wants. If they do invade then Ukraine is NATO and Putin gets the mother load.

They cannot "default" into membership of anything. EU or NATO have to actually believe they are a good partner and Russia attacking is a large negative. The entire idea is to allow in and support stable countries not to actually have a war. The door is not wide open for them to fall into.