Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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I see some elements of the Ukrainian refugee population are showing their gratitude for the UK handing over millions and millions of pounds in money and military equipment, and as a result being threatened with our island becoming a real world Atlantis by taking our government to court over alleged slothfulness.

Classy and bound to raise more than my own hackles I feel. Whilst one can obviously see they may be under considerable stress, falling seemingly gladly into the clutches of the worst of our legal profession is not a good look. Rather than a legal class action case against Mrs. Patel perhaps some visible gratitude for just how far we have stuck our necks out already for these people would be more in order?
 
Caporegime
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Escaping a surrounded position is suicide whilst staying put is only marginally less suicidal.

It's pretty easy arithmetic for why people may prefer to stay no matter the conditions, the only condition that will force them out is completely running out of supplies since a bullet will probably be less suffering than slowly starving or dying from disease.
 
Soldato
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Thems the choices isn’t it. Stay in a small enclave and be shelled or take your chances somewhere else.
The Ukrainians seem in no hurry to surrender to spare anyone so… pays your money and takes your choice.

I’m not entirely sure rape and murder are compulsory.
The UK has 200 rapes a day. We’re not at war.

Because if they surrender they get killed....

They are with regards to the Russian army, also not sure what your little UK part has to do with anything?
 
Man of Honour
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I see some elements of the Ukrainian refugee population are showing their gratitude for the UK handing over millions and millions of pounds in money and military equipment, and as a result being threatened with our island becoming a real world Atlantis by taking our government to court over alleged slothfulness.

Classy and bound to raise more than my own hackles I feel. Whilst one can obviously see they may be under considerable stress, falling seemingly gladly into the clutches of the worst of our legal profession is not a good look. Rather than a legal class action case against Mrs. Patel perhaps some visible gratitude for just how far we have stuck our necks out already for these people would be more in order?

Despite the headlines by certain publications no Ukrainian refugees are taking Mrs Patel to court.
 
Soldato
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Can't post the tweet because it shows death

Seems they were just waiting at a bus stop to go home from work

TBH with so much misinformation being spread I don't even know if I believe these reports from either side anymore.

I mean they could have been civilians who took up arms and chose to fight and I can certainly commend those who chose to fight the invaders but I'm guessing the headline would still be civilians killed at bustop waiting to go home/work either way.
 
Soldato
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I see some elements of the Ukrainian refugee population are showing their gratitude for the UK handing over millions and millions of pounds in money and military equipment, and as a result being threatened with our island becoming a real world Atlantis by taking our government to court over alleged slothfulness.

Classy and bound to raise more than my own hackles I feel. Whilst one can obviously see they may be under considerable stress, falling seemingly gladly into the clutches of the worst of our legal profession is not a good look. Rather than a legal class action case against Mrs. Patel perhaps some visible gratitude for just how far we have stuck our necks out already for these people would be more in order?
Explain what you've done to stick your neck out? Other than raising your hand each time Putin said his boot was dirty.
 
Don
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FX market rates in medium and short term are a result of flows, in simple terms supply and demand. Longer term fundamentals should work (ie different in real rates, inflation, balance of payments) but they really don't.

So FX rate can be floating, pegged or target a certain band. Rouble was free floating with market demand and supply doing the heavy lifting for the price discovery. Even though Russia is a next exporter (which in theory should lead to appreciating stronger currency) its currency was undervalued according to PPP metric by about 2/3 of its value.

Come in effect sanctions that freeze Russia's central banks foreign reserves (accumulated USD,EUR and other basket of currencies invested in various fixed income assets across the world) as well as introducing swift bans and other measures that in effect. That causes a huge capital flight out of the country, everybody who can rushes to convert their roubles into other currencies. Demand for rouble is zero. Central bank has its reserves frozen and cannot use it to stabilise the FX rate. Rouble starts collapsing.

Russian government and central bank enact certain laws and rules so as to prevent the capital flight. 80% of foreign currency income has to be converted into rouble. Citizen cannot convert more than $10k USD (flat number, not per month or year) until a certain date ( I don't remember which).

A lot of people online seem to resort to copium that rouble appreciation is artificial but in reality rouble depreciation was also artificial. There's an economic war going on.

As Russia has introduced capital controls it has all the ability to set up any rouble rate it wants, it is not longer a function of a free market price discovery.

Once again, a lot of people not familiar with economics are looking to see the effect of the economic war on the exchange rate but it is not productive. If you want to see sanctions damage then look at GDP forecast growth. At the moment it is expected that the Russia economy will contract by 10% but the situation is very fluid and may change dramatically demanding how things will unfold and whether more heavy sanctions and or oil embargo will hit. (in case of historical analysis I do not remember figures exactly but roughly it was estimated that 2014 sanctions against Russia caused about 1.5-2.5% of GDP loss per year for Russia).
Thanks for this. I now understand!
 
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New Perun video on Russia’s nuclear bluff.

Thoughts on his reliability in general? I pretty much knew everything he said in this vid beforehand, and I feel more and more like that with his most recent videos. Why I gravitated to him was he debunked 2 theories from Youtubers I respected.

The “Russia’s pulling its punches” myth even CaspianReport mentioned in their 1st war video, before the logistical nightmares were exposed. And the “real goal” of stealing Ukrainian coastal oil & gas, or denying them access so Europe stays dependent, which I first heard from RealLifeLore. Maybe it was on TV, radio or other stuff I don’t watch, but I’d never heard it mentioned before, to the point I where I doubted its factuality, as it wasn’t “common knowledge” like Russia “pulling its punches”.
 
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FX market rates in medium and short term are a result of flows, in simple terms supply and demand. Longer term fundamentals should work (ie different in real rates, inflation, balance of payments) but they really don't.

So FX rate can be floating, pegged or target a certain band. Rouble was free floating with market demand and supply doing the heavy lifting for the price discovery. Even though Russia is a next exporter (which in theory should lead to appreciating stronger currency) its currency was undervalued according to PPP metric by about 2/3 of its value.

Come in effect sanctions that freeze Russia's central banks foreign reserves (accumulated USD,EUR and other basket of currencies invested in various fixed income assets across the world) as well as introducing swift bans and other measures that in effect. That causes a huge capital flight out of the country, everybody who can rushes to convert their roubles into other currencies. Demand for rouble is zero. Central bank has its reserves frozen and cannot use it to stabilise the FX rate. Rouble starts collapsing.

Russian government and central bank enact certain laws and rules so as to prevent the capital flight. 80% of foreign currency income has to be converted into rouble. Citizen cannot convert more than $10k USD (flat number, not per month or year) until a certain date ( I don't remember which).

A lot of people online seem to resort to copium that rouble appreciation is artificial but in reality rouble depreciation was also artificial. There's an economic war going on.

As Russia has introduced capital controls it has all the ability to set up any rouble rate it wants, it is not longer a function of a free market price discovery.

Once again, a lot of people not familiar with economics are looking to see the effect of the economic war on the exchange rate but it is not productive. If you want to see sanctions damage then look at GDP forecast growth. At the moment it is expected that the Russia economy will contract by 10% but the situation is very fluid and may change dramatically demanding how things will unfold and whether more heavy sanctions and or oil embargo will hit. (in case of historical analysis I do not remember figures exactly but roughly it was estimated that 2014 sanctions against Russia caused about 1.5-2.5% of GDP loss per year for Russia).
Thanks for the writeup. There's a similar explanation from Money & Macro. Thoughts on his reliability too?
 
Soldato
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Thanks for the writeup. There's a similar explanation from Money & Macro. Thoughts on his reliability too?

It's a good and easy to understand video.

As he said Russia makes up a very small fraction of the world economy and technically the west can absolutely destroy the Russian economy (stop gas imports) but if the west does it (Germany specifically) then the west will experience quite the depression, from which it will not recover, it will be a permanent reduction in standards of living by a good amount.

We are seeing some countries refusing to pay in roubles and stopping importing Russian gas officially but it is all theatrics, Poland is still getting Russia gas through Germany. In fact all countries that have a gas pipeline with Germany can join in on political theatrics and stop import of Russian gas to get some electorate brownie points, whilst getting their Russia gas through Germany.

Russia is already leveraging their power as a commodity exporter (a developed country can be very productive but if it does not have access to raw materials or these raw materials increase significantly in cost then you either can't physically produce or it becomes economically irrational to produce) with their dominate market position in wheat and fertiliser and some metals, which will drive further current supply side inflation we are seeing right now that is further destroying already stretched to the limited cost of living.

In essence globalisation is working here, the west and Russia cannot harm each other too much because they are dependant on each other.
 
Caporegime
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That leverage wont last very long once it's abundantly clear that other sources of those materials are more trustworthy and increase production through investment that is no longer heading to Russia.

Of course always nice to keep the carrot dangling if the Kremlin wobbles.
 
Soldato
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Absolutely agree with this and the posts it is in reaction to:


Very true - putin is attempting to project a “if you are friends with US we will ruin your country just like syria” the concept is that any proxy war between US and putin results in no country thus russia’s threat becomes would be enough to dictate whatever relationship they want. Playing the stalemate/draw game.
 
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