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When are you going fully electric?

Discussion in 'Motors' started by Ricochet J, Aug 23, 2018.

  1. oneilldo

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 16, 2003

    Posts: 1,775

    Hasn’t the amount of electricity usage in general gone down though over the past decade due to better efficiency/LEDS/solar etc. Obviously EV’s may well change this but I really don’t see it as that big of an issue. Companies like octopus energy for instance allow a cheaper rate of power over a 4 hour period overnight. They also offer I think via email a trial where people can use a different 4 hour slot for slightly different prices. This will change behaviour and allow the grid to be better balanced and hence stop or reduce everyone charging at peak time’s (18:00 when home). the energy produced at these not peak times is also greener as I think
     
  2. Russinating

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 27, 2005

    Posts: 15,560

    Location: Bristol

    The Octopus Go tariff is 100% renewable energy at all times. That raises another infrastructure potential problem though in energy storage; whilst power stations can run consistently 24/7 you can't rely on solar, wind or tidal etc to be able to cope with demand at 3am.

    Of course that's another area of business for Tesla.
     
  3. Firestar_3x

    Caporegime

    Joined: Mar 11, 2005

    Posts: 29,897

    Location: Leafy Cheshire

    Why do you keep making things up?
     
  4. Gaygle

    Capodecina

    Joined: Nov 7, 2004

    Posts: 14,975

    Location: East of England

    I agree entirely. I really think we forget how far we have come in terms of tech and it's amazing when you look back. In 2004/2005, 15 years ago, this was one of the most advanced pieces of consumer tech out there.

    [​IMG]

    I don't think it even had Bluetooth. In fact, Bluetooth wasn't even a thing that anyone really knew about. Same as WiFi. If you could get a signal to send a 160 character text message, without standing next to the upstairs window for 5 minutes, you were in luck. People still answered their home landline phone and said the phone number before they spoke. Half the people in the country still had to listen to their computer making musical noises before they could go on AOL chat. And then would tie up the phone line for hours at a time so no one could get through. The idea of an iPhone with a touchscreen was still several years away. Google Maps hadn't been invented yet, Google Street View was not even an idea then.

    Having Sat Nav in cars was reserved for top end cars only and most of the screens were about 100 pixels x 200 pixels. The E39 BMW M5 was still (almost) the current pinnacle of super saloons and tech in a car. Many cars still had phones in the centre console. Self driving cars was literally something from sci-fi movies still. Cars running off electricity was something a very, very small number of manufacturers were even playing with and making the odd one as a prototype.

    This is just 15 years ago.

    As with all tech, things accelerate geometrically. So 15 years to get EV cars where it's the only thing you can buy from a dealer is pretty unambitious considering that many of the EV's out at the moment are not too bad at all. In the 5 years I'd expect there to have an explosion in the amount of EV's on the road and for them to be much better. In 10 years, i'd expect EV's to be head and shoulders better than they are now, with them even more efficient with the same size batteries, and bigger battery packs. If the Government aren't morons, they should be predicting this and should start building EV infrastructure like...right now. The first way they do this is by getting low cost offshore wind farms up, building a few nuclear power plants and getting rid of gas/coal power. That's half the battle won. The next half is getting it to people's homes, but in the next 5 years, i don't think that is going to be a problem.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
  5. Journey

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 7,233

    Location: West Midlands

    Let's not forget how pivotal V2G is going to become, as the number of BEV's increase. I fully expect a standard to be reached before the 2023, and power credits to be introduced for using it.
     
  6. Russinating

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 27, 2005

    Posts: 15,560

    Location: Bristol

    It is pretty crazy to look back. Even with regards to cars 15 years ago I had my first which was an f-reg Mini Mayfair (1988) that had a choke and you had to supplement the fuel with lead. Granted it was older than most people's cars but it certainly wasn't unusual or crazy, and a few people at my college had similar cars.
     
  7. Journey

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 7,233

    Location: West Midlands

    Drop back 30 years, to 1990 and the internet wasn't a thing for most folks, heck most people had a Commodore 64 as a home computer or a Spectrum, mobile phones barely existed and the analog coverage was limited to a tiny fraction of the country. CRT TV's averaged less than 24", and the only digital flat screen you had was on your top of the range Casio calculator watch. :D
     
  8. Rilot

    Don

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 20,001

    Location: Wargrave, UK

    I'm thinking back to the mid 90s when the vast majority of cars were petrol. There was usually the one token diesel model in the range or they were absent altogether. In the UK the BMW E32 and E38 7-series were never offered with a diesel engine for example.
    How long did it take for diesel to overtake petrol massively?
     
  9. Russinating

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 27, 2005

    Posts: 15,560

    Location: Bristol

    July 2010 apparently: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/aug/05/diesel-car-sales-overtake-petrol

    That article led me here: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
  10. Rilot

    Don

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 20,001

    Location: Wargrave, UK

    Interesting. The big tax breaks for diesel started around 2000 wasn't it? So, 10 years roughly.
    Admittedly, it's quite a bit different considering that diesel adoption didn't require new fueling stations but it's a reasonable example of how policy changes can affect buying habits in the motor industry. The new 0% BIK rate for long range EVs I think will make a massive difference to EV adoption.
     
  11. 2004typer

    Gangster

    Joined: Feb 9, 2009

    Posts: 295

    Location: Dukinfield

    Just about to take my first plunge with a PHEV - ordered a Kia Niro PHEV 3 as a company vehicle due to the low BIK. The electric only range should also cover most of the commuting and general nipping around town driving (I will charge it nightly so always full in morning).
     
  12. Joe T

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 1, 2003

    Posts: 11,404

    Location: Northampton

    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
  13. Russinating

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 27, 2005

    Posts: 15,560

    Location: Bristol

    Just out of interest - not a criticism - what were the reasons you opted for a PHEV rather than a fully electric?
     
  14. Fusion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 10,038

    Location: Notts

    It is remarkable how fast technology can evolve when there’s a concerted effort. Extreme example, but the Apollo Program kicked off in 1961. Eight years later, we were on the moon.

    Fifteen years before it began, the official world air speed record was still below the sound barrier!
     
  15. SPG

    Soldato

    Joined: Jul 28, 2010

    Posts: 5,991

    I work alot with EV especially large and small California types, The battery tech is 15-20 years away from giving people what they want (they also demand putting every bell and whistle inside a vehicle which requires power which in turn reduces range....go figure) It will also have trippled in price due to the rare earth elements becoming rarer still.

    Just think every UK service stations car park would require a charge point or at the minimum 50% of it,

    Hydrogen is the only viable solution, its plentiful easy to store and just requires a a couple of nuclear power-plants dedicated to its production :)
     
  16. DB_SamX

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Feb 17, 2006

    Posts: 7,820

    Location: Winchester

    I don't dispute that! If you have a garage, train up mechanics to learn maintaining electric vehicles. Students should look into sudying subjects relevant to renewables and nuclear energy. Compasnies in construction should look to diversify and expand their portfolia towards electric infrastructure. etc...

    People wand businesses will try to do that, but will only be successful as long as government support them, implement the right policies and invest in the infrastructure.

    Back on topic, I don't know if I want to next car to be a big petrol one for a last hurrah, or to get a hybrid (I like the Corolla, not that I've tried others).
     
  17. Journey

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 7,233

    Location: West Midlands

  18. SkodaMart

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 27, 2009

    Posts: 3,549

    Location: Manchester

    Look the King has no clothes on...
    Theres no way electric vehicles will ever be viable, for starters they are far from emission free, they only move the pollutants elsewhere.
    The best industrial power tool batteries last around 3 years, 5 at max.
    They loose capacity from the first use.
    I would basically forget this white elephant and wait for the future alternative, whatever that will be.
    Sure current users of EV are enjoying them, but that’s only because so few people are using them.
    The load on the national grid will be crippling alone if all internal combustion engines where replaced.
    It just doesn’t make any logical sense.
     
  19. Orionaut

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 2, 2012

    Posts: 7,401

    Back of envelope numbers.

    There may be some wriggle room, but the orders of magnitude cant be too far out....

    Consider the typical filling station, let alone a motorway one.

    Combine the typical range that the average (IE not the super expensive high-performance ones) consumer EV is likely to be capable of and the speed at which it can be recharged.

    "Little" station just down the road has 8 filling "Slots"

    To have a similar utility in terms of charging capacity, it will need 2/4 times as many slots due to range limitations and another 2/4 times as many slots because of charging time.

    (Oh and before anybody mentions home charging, While this reduces the charge point problem to some extent, it doesn’t really solve the overall electrical capacity one of course. It just sends it somewhere else)

    IE up to 16 times as many slots.

    To achieve the same effective refuelling capacity (Time taken x frequency of refuelling) my local filling station will need nearer 100 charge points (Perhaps even more).

    Let us ignore the fact that it simply doesn’t have room for this.

    Now, assume they each have up to 100 Kw charging capacity.

    That means that for even a "Small" recharge station to have the same overall capacity as a petrol/diesel one, it will need an electrical supply capacity in excess of 10MW

    That will need its own personal substation, with its own personal 33Kv supply. (Maybe even higher if it is a long way from the local "Big" substation!)

    Apply the same numbers to a motorway services, which currently most people will try to avoid like the plague because of high costs, Now factor in even more extra capacity because people will need to make multiple recharges during long journeys, rather than fill up before setting off and filling up at the destination, because with EV's they will have to because of range limitations,

    To meet the requirements of increased demand and those of increased usage. To achieve similar utility, a motorways services might need a 50-100 MW supply or even more.

    We are looking at small power station levels of power here. Enough to run a small city.

    Now multiply this for all current filling stations all over the country. serving say 30,000,000 cars

    In the Rainbow Unicorn matrix world, all a politician with a classics degree needs to do is sign a pice of paper and it will be done.

    Back in the real world however, I really cant see it.

    Even if we built the 30 or more Sizewell B's that would need to operate flat out to meet this overall increase in daily electricity demand we would still have to massively increase the capacity of the entire electrical distribution system. Not just at national grid level but right down to door to door domestic level.

    And to try to achieve this using mainly/only "Renewables", especially at a time when there is also pressure to replace gas with electricity for space heating is utter fantasy.

    What all this illustrates is the extent to which most people grotesquely underestimate the massive utility that we get from fossil fuels and the near insurmountable task it will be to find an even only reasonably practical alternative.

    And no. Hydrogen is not going to do it either It is a rotten fuel for transport vehicles, fine for rockets (Though even then not always) but rotten for transport generally.

    :(
     
  20. stuman

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Aug 27, 2003

    Posts: 1,557

     
  21. Uther

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jun 16, 2005

    Posts: 11,175

    Either people are going to have to change the way they think about travelling anywhere, or EV technology is going to have to make some major leaps. Currently I can drive to Scotland and back from the middle of the UK with one ten minute refueling stop.
    Until people can do that in an EV for the same sort of cost then the whole thing is going to feel like a non starter.