Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by fester, Feb 4, 2009.
Haha well done. I've got rid of all my gold and silver thankfully without too much loss. It's equities at the moment for me.
Arizona passes law making gold and silver legal tender
Gold in free fall it seems.
Probably all buying shares in Asia at the moment, mostly Japan due to the renewed confidence.
Its ironic, I think Cyprus 'dumping' its gold has triggered sales by various traders and holders even.
Still the long term relys on if strong central banks with trade surplus are buying gold as part of global trade
China has trillions in dollars and bonds but not gold so I'd be worried what these class of gold holders are doing rather then what Cyprus is doing.
I think its comparable to Cash4Gold. You can take that as bearish, that people want to dump gold but its well in order that debtors in general sell at bad prices. Cyprus continues that idea on a macro scale, as a forced seller the market would be foolish to give them any more then it has to. how it pans out longer term is harder to say, I have called 1352 previously and I will be surprised if we go near 1000 but anything can happen.
Yep its failed I didnt presume it'd happen but its been a while coming. I have sold some at Sept 2011 and also last autumn but never everything to trade down and I'd be richer if I had done that.
Prices now are circa 2010 QE2 so this is a big area. We never undid what Ben B said and in fact he has enumerated further currency in exchange for bonds and housing securities since then. No small amount, we are talking over a trillion. Its 85bn a month addition currently I think, new money. 70% of USA debt issued this year will be purchased by its own best friend FED if I remember right.
BOE by comparison holds 1/3 of all debt ever issued by government, that seems gigantic to me, again that money comes out of a top hat. The presumption by gold bugs is the money cannot be put back and so far it has not. Our Chancellor swiped some 'profits' from BOE last Nov. That little balance adjustment devalues sterling
Japan is issuing 1.2tn of new money as of last December this is progressing with more details recently. None of this is bearish for gold but obviously this price is no where an uptrend
I think British Sovereigns went to 300 at peak and its not that near now, my loss. Still we arent talking grand losses, this is a simple metal fairly useless and its still much higher then 2009 april when I got some after BOE started QE. There is fairly strong link between the two and of the two QE is weaker imo tbc
unprecedented falls in lots of commodities, especially the precious metals, but no one seems to know why.
Is there an easy link to the iron ore price, I can never find it
There was some worse then foreseen China data today, it was the straw on the commodity camels back
I think they still accumulating forex/bank reserves, ie. including gold
New low $1336
China is cracking down on property markets, apparently, though that was a month ago, maybe it is related.
You're the king of understatements.
It pays not to get carried away, I have said volatility is a bull market I guess thats in every market then.
Gold moves in landslides, ironically I did not think down so much but its not off the charts.
We are back to late 2010, stocks can certainly go down that much
Judging quality by dollars priced is expecting the tail to wag the dog, its other factors driving it beyond price tags and profit taking
Where do you buy gold? like just pure blocks, bet some underground sites of people selling em? if I have £800,000+ untaxed illegal money (still claiming JSA) and I buy 790k worth of gold can I sell it on? is gold legal tender?
Tell you what is good idea for legal tender. STAMPS 1st class norm and large. Look HOW they rise!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!I bought £100 worth when 60p large then they went up and now they are 90p so remember
You jest sir (I think, the internet is a funny thing), but some people did just that. More to save on business costs, than to sell them on, but the impact is the same.
Indeed, didn't the RM start to restrict supply due to businesses doing just this?
On a more OP related note, with the gold prices being at a pretty low figure. Is it worth jumping in in the hope of it rising again or best to stay well away?
All depends on what degree of loss you can carry and for how long. It really is no different than gambling. If the odds and the gains float your boat then go for it. The problem being is you'll never get agreementon the either the odds or the gains
Who needs Gold when you could of bought Kazakhmys this morning
They do mine gold of course some small recovery in gold but I hear this should fail and it'll go to 1100.
Its supposed to be the complete oppisite in that we are dealing with something completely inert and unchanging. The price tag of course reflect sentiment and dollar strength, there is no material change in gold or its uses from last year.
Even supply demand is pretty steady as its non industrial, we arent about to have a failed harvest.
The underlying elements should be same as they were last year or last decade however in last hundred years industrial process has meant most gold was mined in 21st century but as to availability in the earths crust its not changed.
So anyway its not supposed to be a horse race, you already have the final results pre race, its yellow heavy and thats your lot. The dynamics are not gambling but inverse to paper money, etc
every gram is a duplicate of the other.
Contrast that to a house of that value and its incredibly liquid market and especially favoured by central banks as one of those reasons, consistency
Bullion is taxable but gold coins were used same as we have pound coins now. They just made them from 22ct gold and they are still legal tender and tax free now
So a 1 pound coin used under Queen Vic can buy 200 pounds worth now
A 1 pound coin (copper) used under Queen Elizabeth II dated 1990 will buy in 2013 less then half now then what it did in 1990
A 1964 USA dime (silver) will buy the same amount of fuel now as it did in 1964
A 1964 dollar note will buy about 1/10 of what it used to buy
Those 'gains' arent taxable because its not a real gain, the price went up but the value of the gold coin is really very similar hence the whole reason you hold one.
Its not about this years price even next but decades yep maybe and please dont quote 1980 to 2000 as a straw man counterargument to that
Dont jump in, the vast majority of UK are net debtors. Mortgages being the most obvious, if debts outweigh everything else its best not to mess in volatile markets but reduce risk and increase stability.
I think a fixed mortgage is a once in a lifetime opportunity currently personally but many view housing as an 'investment' as others do gold
Why is gold so useless and pointless to own, see chart.
This helps explains some of the price fall I think in that we have overcome the debt crisis by printing money or so it seems.
Of course I disagree and the orange line I put in, to highlight the rising trend in major events is where I suggest we will end up.
I expect volatility to exceed the Lehmans event even though they have cured everything with QE, etc
First check would be to see where gold price is when we exceed the Gulf war price level of 30 on ^VIX (ie. is gold correlated or at all usefully inverse to volatility and price instability)
Ive been buying up silver for a few years now, and have accumliated a fair weight, and some rare coins such as the origional max keiser 1oz round, anyone know what they are going for now?
I'd assume no premium over the melt price personally unless you know a shop that buys them for higher.
Price to buy here says 20 and melt price 15.50 ? Phone and ask them, a shop is likely to prefer bulk so you might want to try ebay - prices on there are really high wow
1352 gold price did hold after all. Quite chuffed that played out but Im told it will break down and we will get nearer to 1000.
Stocks I can judge volume but metals takes better global knowledge so cant say Im sure how strong this recovery is but so long as central banks are buying it should continue higher year on year.
GLD volume says this is a weak rise, so speculators arent involved here, which leaves actual physical holders to come through - or not. Projection is August 2010 prices possible
China owns like 99% debt as assets and like 1% gold I think where as USA is more the other way round, how those two equalise their trade imbalance and assets held then effect traded gold price is the interesting part.
I do think price is driven less by that at the moment then it will be in future. Since gold is never consumed, its always available to sell in theory so price drop should be normal, apparently 60% drop in seventies was followed by 800% rise before it then fell for twenty years.
Rates set at that time if used now would more then quintuple deficit costs, ie. unfeasible
Was watching Bloomberg and CNBC last night (pre Asia open- though some were closed) and the general consensus on gold is they haven't got a clue.
Two guests see the upside in the 1950-2050 range but they also see a possible huge drop.
Apparently many Asian countries have seen a flurry of gold buying in the last month which is helping fuel the rebound
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