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Will Israel Attack Iran?

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Castiel, Jan 29, 2012.

  1. Castiel

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: Jun 26, 2010

    Posts: 63,651

    I picked this up in the NY Times magazine.....The article was long and is only available by subscription but it asked some questions that I though might be interesting to discuss....


    1. Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran’s nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project?

    2. Can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?

    3. Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack?

    4. Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran’s nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack?



    Many of Israel's political leaders now seem to be the answers to these questions are yes, but I am not so sure.....The US may seem like they are in favour of belligerence toward Iran in the face of their suspected Nuclear Weapons Program siting that just the possibilty destabilises the region which would have far reaching consequences on the wider world, how that sits with Israel's implied but unconfirmed (or denied) own Nuclear Weapons I wouldn't like to say. However I don't think that the US has any taste for another difficult War in the Middle East....and given increased Russian and Chinese interests in the region the geopolitical situation is vastly different from both 1991 and 2003 so I think that the US will balk at any sustained military action if at all possible.

    So will Israel go it alone, domestically the Israeli Administration is under pressure both politically and economically, Jordan and Turkey relations are strained, almost to breaking point....the relationship with Egypt is increasingly unstable and with the successes of the Muslim Brotherhood look likely to sour further. Issues with trade hamper relationships with the EU and implied Russian and Chinese support of Syria and Iran also rankle the Israeli administration....

    From all sides Israel is seemingly under pressure, either economically, politically or morally....what will they do in such a situation. Is it Iran that is the unstable one or is it the Israeli Administration?

    What say SC?

    (Please remember this is a geopolitical discussion and not an overtly religious one, so lets keep it on track and based on politics rather than prophecy...)
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2012
  2. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,836

    Everyone is unstable in that hell hole of a region.

    It would all be solved if Israel was the bigger man and left, a lot of Jews hate the states creation and is nothing more than a Zionists little dream.
     
  3. Nutella33

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 15, 2011

    Posts: 2,790

    I think it depends how much support the government in isreal has and how stable home support is, all politics is local politics afterall.

    I would worry that a cornered animal is a much harder thing to predict, if isreal feels like the tipping point of regional power is going against them they are likely to do anything. i wouldnt be surprised if they are stoking a bit of the syrian resistance for no other reason that it makes sense for them to do so.

    In isreals eyes i think as long as egypt and syria are divided it can concentrate on what to do with iran without too much interferance, with overt or subvertive action.

    I also think that in answer to the 4 questions, only number 4 is the unknown with a lot of it depending how much isreal and irans enemies can delay the process (in referance to question 1).

    I admit however i dont know how stable isreals home turf is in regards to support for such actions but guessing from the far right of Netanyahu in power i guess reasonably stable.
     
  4. mrthingyx

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Apr 3, 2003

    Posts: 15,234

    Location: Cambridge

    1) Yes, but not in a short space of time or through direct military action (think how they didn't manage to crush the militants using Lebanon as a proxy a few years ago, and how Stuxnet worked a treat). Unless they go nuclear as a preemptive action.

    2) No - I don't think Iran will worry too much about collateral damage.

    3) I would think certainly tacit in some regards, but I doubt it would ever be overt.

    4) Personally, so what if Iran has nukes? A much bigger problem in that approximate region is Pakistan, and the world didn't do all that much to stop them.

    To answer the question, however, I think there will be more diplomacy and brinkmanship to go before we get to the point of actual action: I think analysts' best guesses are that Iran is still a couple of years away from a viable nuke, anyway, but who knows? Does anybody REALLY think Iran would nuke another country? The retaliatory action doesn't even bear thinking about - Iran would wind up a glass crater as would Israel, and millions would die. I don't think humanity as the stomach for such slaughter anymore.
     
  5. Its_Me

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 9, 2002

    Posts: 4,948

    Location: In a damp cave

    Well who has been behind the assassination of top Iranian scientists.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/w...st-killing-deepens-as-it-signals-revenge.html


    Without doubt Israel(Gov) are as crazy as any other country around them.
    It has mostly been due to the US that we have not already seen another Israel V Rest war.
     
  6. e36Adz

    Capodecina

    Joined: Nov 28, 2003

    Posts: 11,075

    Location: Manchester, UK

    The fact that such a topic can be discussed now as a possibility leads me to believe it is almost inevitable given that the mere suggestion a few years ago was being ridiculed.

    1. Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran’s nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project?

    Yes.

    2. Can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?

    I believe so, I don't think we have seen the full extent of Israels military capability yet, but I think we may see a very dazzling display soon.

    Not only do I believe Iran is a target but also Pakistan with it being the only Muslim country which is a nuclear power, and hence a possible threat to Israel. It is great to see that we can discuss these things now because some article in a magazine raised some interesting points, but Castiel I've been saying this for the past 2-3 years if not more. It is not a question of 'if', it is a question of 'when'.

    I do think Israel will go it alone but Britain and America will support them, so the British and American public will have absolutely no say in the matter whatsoever. Israel being who it is, will have to set the stage making itself look as though they are restraining themselves and forced to act. So many people are waking up to the reality of Israel and America and the fact they are trying very hard to stir something up with Iran, that they may need another 9-11 to really gain any kind of public support. When Israel does go for it, the price of oil will soar and that will finish off the dollar in my opinion.

    My reasons were mainly religious as you know but since you don't want to bring that into this thread, I won't bother saying any more. I will just say this though, I think this year we will see the start of the chain of events, but God knows best.
     
  7. trigger-happy

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 3, 2009

    Posts: 3,310

    Location: In west London

    Well a new team from the UN has just arrived in Iran and have just started their inspection. We should give some more time and see if Iran is innocent and if they are another victim of American lies. IMO Iran has a right to nuclear power but not for weapons but on the other hand Israel is a threat to Iran and they country does need more defences so perhaps they need to be equipped with one.

    You guys have to remember Iran invited the UN to come over and inspect their facilities, if they were guilty of making a nuclear bomb they wouldn't of invited anyone to come over. I guess only time will tell >.<

    I really hope war does not occur, I don't want another Iraq scenario.
     
  8. Housey

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Feb 21, 2006

    Posts: 26,555

    It will happen this year I suspect, it's been in planning for years and the risk is only getting bigger.
     
  9. mrthingyx

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Apr 3, 2003

    Posts: 15,234

    Location: Cambridge

    What risk? For Iran? Or for Israel?

    For what it's worth, even though I'm no big fan of the Iranian regime (Google "Baha'i persecution in Iran" if you're really interested), all they are to the international community are noisy, prejudiced, wilfully ignorant and a supplier of oil. Yes, their internal dealings are cause for concern, but that's another kettle of fish...

    Based on what I can see in the media and on historical evidence, Israel is the more dangerous nation as a threat to international peace than Iran: the IDF have invaded Egypt, Palestine and Lebanon, whilst launching preemptive strikes against others... So who is the more dangerous? The bellicose sabre rattlers, or those who will recourse to unilateral action without consultation or warning?
     
  10. Weaver

    Hitman

    Joined: Jul 9, 2008

    Posts: 722

    Location: It's Grimm up Norf

    Man... where do we start with this question?

    There are so many different contributing factors that may or may not play some part in decisions being made now and in the not too distant future.

    One angle to consider, the economic sanctions being placed on Iran are not working as intended as various measures are being put in place to subvert and alleviate there effect. Iran trading in gold is one such circumvention, trading through India is another. e36Adz above draws attention to the precarious nature of the dollar, which has been falling steadily against sterling over the last two weeks, however it is difficult to say whether this will have any baring on any particular outcome but it is worth considering as both Hussain and Quaddaffi posited and heavily supported a move towards trading in 'Gold Dinar' or any other currency other than the Dollar.

    Bare in mind I'm merely opening up a line of enquiry with the above, it's as good a place to begin as any. I'm interested in others thoughts on how the economic angle will influence any decisions/actions.


    ------
     
  11. e36Adz

    Capodecina

    Joined: Nov 28, 2003

    Posts: 11,075

    Location: Manchester, UK

    Absolutely and look what happened to them.

    The economic angle is massively important in all of this, and the reason why they will never allow the return of the Gold Dinar is because it takes away their ability to pull wealth out of thin air, which they have been doing for so many years. Gold also can't be monitored, and these people are obsessed with trying to see and control everything. Anti-terrorism legislation and 'war on terrorism' have paved the way in the name of international security, for the imposition a new international monetary system of electronic money that would make the world even safer for Israel since anyone who dares to oppose Israel can be targeted as a terrorist and could have his wealth electronically short-circuited. When Israel does launch its attack as I believe it will do, they will eventually impose control over the world’s major oil resources that were not already controlled.

    In any effort for a country to try establish itself as the ruling State in the world, it must takes steps towards the control of the worlds money. Control over money can be used to prevent the circulation of wealth through the economy, thus ensuring that the rich remain permanently rich and the poor remain in permanent poverty. It can also be used to buy the allegiance of the rich who would grow constantly richer, and who would join the oppressor. It would also reduce the poor to such impotence that they become helpless to resist oppression. That is precisely the sad state of the world today.
     
  12. N17

    PermaBanned

    Joined: Jan 20, 2012

    Posts: 680

    Israel are backed by the US. They have more weapons than Iran and more nuclear weapons than Iran. They have been to war more times than Iran and have killed more people than Iran. Work it out.
     
  13. El Pew

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 1, 2009

    Posts: 1,053

    Actually, no.

    The only method of attack Israel has that is capable of reaching Iran is their arsenal of IRBMs. These aren't precise enough to hit a pinpoint target without resorting to nuclear warheads, which I don't think the Israelis are stupid enough to try.

    They can't repeat Operation Opera because the Iranian sites are much further than Osirak and the Israeli Air Force does not have the capability to reach them without extensive airborne refueling over hostile (probably Saudi) airspace, which isn't going to happen due to the air defence systems that those countries have.

    There would be a much higher probability of success if they got the Americans to do it.

    You know the Protocols of the Elders of Zion was a hoax, right?
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  14. Paul11

    Capodecina

    Joined: Sep 28, 2003

    Posts: 10,092

    Location: London

    is there also an issue that the nuclear facilites are very deep underground and it would be hard, (if possible?) to penerate deep enough to reach them
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  15. e36Adz

    Capodecina

    Joined: Nov 28, 2003

    Posts: 11,075

    Location: Manchester, UK

    I remember you. You were assuring people that stacking up on US dollars was a great idea, and it is worthless buying gold. Please hang around for a few months. :)


    I've never read it but I've heard of it. Will look into it thanks.
     
  16. El Pew

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 1, 2009

    Posts: 1,053

    Idiots who have no idea about economics or the role of gold in an economy having been saying 'give it a few months' for years now. I'm still waiting. And I'm yet to hear any sensible explanation of why any sensible investor should move heavily into gold.

    e: And I do not, and never have, advised anyone to 'stack up' on US dollars, but thanks for the ridiculous mischaracterisation of me.

    You'd love it, it's exactly the kind of anti-semitic nonsense that people like you adore.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  17. Housey

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Feb 21, 2006

    Posts: 26,555

    Percieved risk to Israel in Israel.
     
  18. Meridian

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 11,869

    Location: Vvardenfell

    How long have the Israelis been saying that Iran was on the verge of getting The Bomb? Must be over twenty years now. Either the Iranians are so bad at it that they're not a threat, or the Israelis have been, er, I think the expression is something about "sexing up", the data. Someone more cynical than myself might suspect that the Israelis want to goad the Americans into attacking Iran as the Israelis don't think that could win alone.


    M
     
  19. Castiel

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: Jun 26, 2010

    Posts: 63,651

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bb17ea54-4a89-11e1-a11e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1kt3XbaZv

     
  20. e36Adz

    Capodecina

    Joined: Nov 28, 2003

    Posts: 11,075

    Location: Manchester, UK

    Lol, absolutely pathetic that but now we know your stance quite clearly, thanks for removing any doubts.