Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Vexr, Sep 1, 2019.
You're asking if we expect another unexpected event?
Really? Shouldn't this thread be in GD?
No one has mentioned that a major Earthquake, known as ‘the big one’ is statistically overdue on the San Andreas faultline. And by ‘statistically overdue’ I mean by decades if not a hundred years. With each passing day the likelihood of a massive, 8+ on the Richter scale earthquake in California increases. Massive loss of life and property damage. California is one of the most densely populated states in America. The death toll will likely be 100k+ if it’s a 9+ quake that strikes close to SF or LA.
There is a vast website constructed by scientists with a sense of humour, detailing very real potential armageddon events in their expected timescale and likelihood.
May I introduce you to Exit Mundi
It makes for a very fascinating read.
I do believe so, nuclear weapons has brought peace between the big powers. But it is a stagnant peace. The USA, UK, France (+EU), Russia, India, China, NK, Japan all seem to have different opinions with the way the world is going to work. We have issues with population and wastefulness too. I think the bubble will burst at some point. One that ends in a big worldwide nuclear war in which we're all screwed, or the other that ends up with a world government and the end of nations which will lead to power abuse. Who polices the government that governs everyone and every thing within one institution?
This is something i have been dreading to happen for over 30 years. They've been talking about it since the 80's, i hope i never see it but if it happens it'll be something out of the 2012 movie
Robots or AI.
The supervolcanoes around the world are of great concern, and something as minor as an earthquake could set them off, or be a precursor to an eruption. Basically huge blisters that are getting more densely pressurised every day. When they go, so does most of their continent. The rest of the world gets plunged into winter. Maybe that's what we need to combat global warming ?
Psycho-Pass here we come!
I believe once the west removes it's oil dependence, it's tolerance for foreign nations will lessen. It will then stamp it's authority on those not meeting climate change targets and become self righteous in its cause.
History is not well learnt.
Who knows what the next 50/100 years will bring.
We will almost certainly end up long term with a government controlled by advanced AI. Big data modelling on a global scale. Crop rotation, weather patterns, resource allocation, welfare, health, finance.....and the push back from society that will bring. Most likely, as we have already seen (blindy or otherwise), it will be drip fed slowly over many years. It's no bad thing either, but totally emotionless.
Climate change will be our next issue I reckon. Not sure it will be as bad a strider X makes out, but we are all in for a big change to our current life style.
I'm glad to see many people have mentioned the Boxing Day tsunami. I'm amazed that has slipped the OPs mind.
However saying that I didn't realise that the Haiti earthquake potentially trumps that.
edit: Looks like the Haiti number is highly disputed although the lower estimate is still 100,000.
We will probably see several natural disasters over the next few decades, however as shown by the tsunami etc, the death toll will need to be of nation ending proportions, such as the Spanish flu epidemic, to make a dent.
Long term 100 year view, once we do end the reliance on oil you will see states like Saudia Arabia bankrupted overnight which will mean a huge powershift across the globe. You will also see human intelligent development climb astronomically meaning there will be an unbridgeable gap between the most advanced civilisations and the least, causing even more friction.
It's virtually happening now, for the most part 99% of humans have zero understanding of how technology which runs their life actually works
I remember seeing a documentary about the risk of this island falling into the see and creating a Mega tsunami, so I was a bit surprised to see this on the BBC website today.
Perhaps I was being a tad eurocentrist in my OP (a worldview centred on or biased towards Western civilization - not european)
9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis have changed and affected us or those we personally know, as well as the destiny/direction of our countries along with most of western civilisation. The boxing day tsunami hitting Asia, which is an area that typically gets hit by tsunamis, not so much. Even the devastating effect of hurricane Katrina and the destruction of New Orleans can't be said to have fundamentally affected every citizen in the US or the country as a whole like 9/11 or the financial crisis did.
As for global warming/climate change, I've seen plenty of apparently 'big-oil funded propaganda' / 'fake news' that somehow never makes it past tiny dissident websites despite such immense financial backing, and which points to global cooling / increased ice coverage actually happening. I also remember keenly the news on the BBC in the late 90s how sea levels would be 20m higher by now, all oil would be used up, and we'd be ravaged by BSE/swine flu/bird flu/the millennium bug, etc. depending on which disaster trend was fashionable any given year.
The two great events that have undisputedly and fundamentally affected western civilisation in the last 20 years are 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis, nothing else is yet proven to have any bearing on our collective destinies.
Although natural disaster certainly has the potential to affect our civilisation dramatically, the timescales for such events are so massive they could easily bypass our lifetimes by centuries, even if they're already overdue. This is why I ask this question. We're in an era of soft power / influence. We have economic wars of attrition rather than outright war. We have dangerous rhetoric that would have been sure to spark conflict in the 20th century, yet now is standard posturing, that we all seem to be able to ignore. Is therefore everything in hand? Has control now been so established that there'll be no more surprises other than manufactured trivialities for us all to get our knickers in a twist about?
2008 wasn't anything really. 9/11 is the kind of event which can really tip things over the edge and trigger big wars.
But as populations get bigger the world is getting less stable :/
Can't see anyone mentioned the disaster that is the Great Barrier Reef yet.
Half of it has died since 2016, if that isn't a biological disaster, I don't know what is.
I beg to disagree. I for one have had my path in life rerouted due to the 2008 financial crisis and been heavily impacted by austerity policies to this day (working several years in the NHS with the pay cap, and previously doing door work as a student and seeing the night life die along with the viability of that job). The rise of the precariat job market can also be linked to the 2008 financial crisis, which I know I've been clobbered by.
Seriously? 2008 was massive and we're still living with the consequences, just one of which is Brexit. Just because there was no spectacular plane crashing into a skyscraper or tsunami scouring the landscape moment doesn't mean that the impacts of a financial crisis like 2008 aren't deep and have all manner of long term and often insidious effects which can cause social upheaval and conflict.
As with most things, some people were affected quite badly and some barely noticed it. I'm in IT and to be honest, apart from changing jobs in 2012 I could have gone by without knowing there was a financial crisis at all if it wasn't all over the news for years. In fact, I prospered quite significantly
Exactly, it didn't effect me at all really. Where as 9/11 dragged a number of countries to war in the middle east and it's STILL going on. I bet that has cost us way more than the 2008 "crisis".
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