Klopp Out Arne In

Don
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In the least arrogant way possible, I think if Liverpool want Alonso then we'll get him, if only for the simple reason that I don't think he'll want to go from Leverkusen directly to Bayern. If Leverkusen go on to win the title then his name will go down in history there but to jump ship and move to Bayern will leave a sour taste in Leverkusen fans mouths. It'll be far easier for him to move abroad and if, as some reports suggest, he sees himself managing all of Liverpool, Bayern and Real one day, history tells you that the opportunity to manage Bayern is more likely to come around (more often) than Liverpool. He could come to Liverpool and do x years and be pretty confident that the Bayern job will be available again in a fairly short window. Where as he could go to Bayern and be out of a job in 18 months and the Liverpool job is taken.

I think the biggest question will be whether Liverpool go for him though. The return of Michael Edwards and the increased responsibility he's being given means we're going to be even more analytics driven than ever before and we've always been big on that anyway. Is Alonso the man the statto's pick out as the best man for the job (I've no idea the answer to that btw) and will the lack of data around Alonso put them off? One of the things I've seen reported a number of times regarding Liverpool's transfers is that the club typically want 100+ games worth of data before committing to spending big on a player. Assuming they take a similar view when analysing a manager, it might count against Alonso.
 

fez

fez

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Hes in an interesting position for sure. Two of the biggest teams in the world might want him but is moving now a good move? His stock is very very high and perhaps another season at BL would be judged poorly against this season and his stock will go down.

Both jobs are in danger of being a bit of a hiding to nothing though. Liverpool is following Klopp and Bayern just have insane expectations.
 
Don
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Hes in an interesting position for sure. Two of the biggest teams in the world might want him but is moving now a good move? His stock is very very high and perhaps another season at BL would be judged poorly against this season and his stock will go down.

Both jobs are in danger of being a bit of a hiding to nothing though. Liverpool is following Klopp and Bayern just have insane expectations.
I think in an ideal world he would probably want another year before taking the next step but timings may force his hand (unless he sees himself at Leverkusen for multiple years), if he does have this career plan mapped out in his head. I don't think the Liverpool job comes up again for at least 24 months and who knows with Bayern. Staying at Leverkusen another year might mean he doesn't get the opportunity to manager one or either of those clubs in the future.
 
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I don't think the Liverpool job comes up again for at least 24 months /snip....

Interesting.. so you think whoever comes in as manager will be a good/right choice straight away?

Even the very best managers sometimes find the first year or two difficult, do you believe that if liverpool are 11/10th at this stage next season, (a-la a couple of other large clubs) that the heirarchy will accept it and keep the manager?

I'm honestly not digging, just interested in the opinion of a supporter who has had a very good manager for a long time..
 
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Interesting.. so you think whoever comes in as manager will be a good/right choice straight away?

Even the very best managers sometimes find the first year or two difficult, do you believe that if liverpool are 11/10th at this stage next season, (a-la a couple of other large clubs) that the heirarchy will accept it and keep the manager?

I'm honestly not digging, just interested in the opinion of a supporter who has had a very good manager for a long time..
What leads you to think we'd drop off that badly? The situation at Liverpool is massively different to the likes of ferguson and wenger who left **** poor squads
 
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Both jobs are in danger of being a bit of a hiding to nothing though. Liverpool is following Klopp and Bayern just have insane expectations.
Interestingly, I actually think that following Klopp is the lesser expectations. For Bayern, it will be a case of well if you can win the league with Leverkusen then you should be able to win the league with Bayern easily enough, but oddly I think theres almost less pressure on trying to follow Klopp because Klopp is held in such high regard that virtually nobody thinks that anyone can do what Klopp has done. So maybe, in a sort of weird reverse way, whomever follows Klopp might be expected to not do as well.
 
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What leads you to think we'd drop off that badly? The situation at Liverpool is massively different to the likes of ferguson and wenger who left **** poor squads

not saying it would.. it was hypothetical.. I think you have one of the best squads.. but it's also a possibility.. so it was interesting to me that @BaZ87 was convinced the liverpool job wouldn't come up again within 24 months...
 
Don
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Interesting.. so you think whoever comes in as manager will be a good/right choice straight away?

Even the very best managers sometimes find the first year or two difficult, do you believe that if liverpool are 11/10th at this stage next season, (a-la a couple of other large clubs) that the heirarchy will accept it and keep the manager?

I'm honestly not digging, just interested in the opinion of a supporter who has had a very good manager for a long time..
I think whoever comes in will be given time. Barring an 18 month period where the club was in turmoil, no manager has been given less than 3 years in my entire lifetime. Liverpool's ownership and the people that will be tasked with appointing a new manager aren't emotional, irrational people. They're eggheads. As I mentioned in my previous post, the decision to appoint our next manager will be based heavily on analytics and the stattos will trust their numbers and allow time for things to come good. It was reported (and confirmed by Klopp) that Liverpool's head statto relied heavily on Klopp's final season at Dortmund when deciding he should be our first choice target as manager - he didn't watch a single second of Dortmund's matches, he only analysed the numbers in a season where Dortmund spent a large amount of time in the bottom half (even in the relegation zone iinm). From the data he was looking at he determined that Dortmund were playing a hell of a lot better than their results suggested and that things would turn around.

Now obviously things could go spectacularly badly and a change happen sooner but I think it would have to be really bad for Liverpool to change manager within 18-24 months and not something I think is particularly likely to happen. In fact I can't think of (m)any clubs that have gone from challenging for the title to 10th/11th within a season. A bad season would be to drop to 5th-7th but even then I'd expect the manager will be given another season to put things right.
 
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Interestingly, I actually think that following Klopp is the lesser expectations. For Bayern, it will be a case of well if you can win the league with Leverkusen then you should be able to win the league with Bayern easily enough, but oddly I think theres almost less pressure on trying to follow Klopp because Klopp is held in such high regard that virtually nobody thinks that anyone can do what Klopp has done. So maybe, in a sort of weird reverse way, whomever follows Klopp might be expected to not do as well.

I disagree. Klopp is basically so intertwined with Liverpool that replacing that is going to be difficult. A bit like Wenger and Fergie. Bayern is more like a committee so chop and changing the manager will be a lot easier.
 
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I think whoever comes in will be given time. Barring an 18 month period where the club was in turmoil, no manager has been given less than 3 years in my entire lifetime. Liverpool's ownership and the people that will be tasked with appointing a new manager aren't emotional, irrational people. They're eggheads. As I mentioned in my previous post, the decision to appoint our next manager will be based heavily on analytics and the stattos will trust their numbers and allow time for things to come good. It was reported (and confirmed by Klopp) that Liverpool's head statto relied heavily on Klopp's final season at Dortmund when deciding he should be our first choice target as manager - he didn't watch a single second of Dortmund's matches, he only analysed the numbers in a season where Dortmund spent a large amount of time in the bottom half (even in the relegation zone iinm). From the data he was looking at he determined that Dortmund were playing a hell of a lot better than their results suggested and that things would turn around.

Now obviously things could go spectacularly badly and a change happen sooner but I think it would have to be really bad for Liverpool to change manager within 18-24 months and not something I think is particularly likely to happen. In fact I can't think of (m)any clubs that have gone from challenging for the title to 10th/11th within a season. A bad season would be to drop to 5th-7th but even then I'd expect the manager will be given another season to put things right.

I guess we will find out.. you have a really good youngish squad now, and with a couple of additions you really should be no where near 10/11th..

However changing a long term manager is not always straightforward..

It is interesting to me however, if liverpool are doing a "moneyball" with football... hope the next guy is as passionate as Klopp and isn't a "by the numbers (moneyball)" rules all kind of person..

It will still be a loss to the league when he goes.. same as it was with Sir Alex and Arsene Wenger..
 
Don
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I guess we will find out.. you have a really good youngish squad now, and with a couple of additions you really should be no where near 10/11th..

However changing a long term manager is not always straightforward..

It is interesting to me however, if liverpool are doing a "moneyball" with football... hope the next guy is as passionate as Klopp and isn't a "by the numbers (moneyball)" rules all kind of person..

It will still be a loss to the league when he goes.. same as it was with Sir Alex and Arsene Wenger..
I'm under no illusions regarding the challenge of replacing Klopp but I think, barring a disaster, whoever replaces him will get at least a 2nd season.

On the moneyball point, we've been doing this since the current owners took over although we didn't have a full structure in place until around 2013(ish). I'm not sure there's any link between clubs with that philosophy and how passionate their managers are though. As I said, we appointed Klopp through analytics and he's a bit of a lunatic. Brighton are massive on analytics and De Zerbi's as mad as they come too.
 
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I think a lot will come down to how well we finish the season. Will Alonso want to follow Klopp if we win the league and the Europa League? Where does he take us from there other than the quadruple the following season which will put a ridiculous amount of pressure on his shoulders.
 
Don
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I honestly don't think managers/players think that way. You don't reach the levels these guys do without enormous self-belief and won't be scared of following on from Klopp. Any manager that is probably doesn't have the elite mentality required for the job anyway.
 
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I honestly don't think managers/players think that way. You don't reach the levels these guys do without enormous self-belief and won't be scared of following on from Klopp. Any manager that is probably doesn't have the elite mentality required for the job anyway.
Cant remember if you've said before , but do you have like a top 3 of your personal choice for the new manager? Who would be your number 1 choice?
 
Don
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Cant remember if you've said before , but do you have like a top 3 of your personal choice for the new manager? Who would be your number 1 choice?
Alonso's probably the outstanding candidate but the fact that he's not been a senior manager for even 18 months yet is a bit wild. I won't pretend to have watched enough of Amorim or even Nagelsmann and while De Zerbi's done a very good job at Brighton, I don't know if he's done enough to fill you with huge confidence that he's up to managing Liverpool.

The managerial market is a bit weird at the moment. You've got maybe 3 truly elite managers, one of which is leaving us and in Pep and Ancelotti the other two are obviously not going to happen, you then have a group of previously highly thought of managers that appear to be past their sell by date and then a pool of promising younger managers who maybe haven't quite proven themselves. Off the top of my head there's not many (any?) established top level managers around that you could appoint.
 
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The managerial market is a bit weird at the moment. You've got maybe 3 truly elite managers, one of which is leaving us and in Pep and Ancelotti the other two are obviously not going to happen, you then have a group of previously highly thought of managers that appear to be past their sell by date and then a pool of promising younger managers who maybe haven't quite proven themselves. Off the top of my head there's not many (any?) established top level managers around that you could appoint.
That's true and implies it's maybe the time to take a punt on an up-and-coming young manager because the opportunity cost is lower than usual (i.e. you aren't overlooking some obvious big candidate to appoint them).

Someone like Emery is probably the closest you'll get to that middle ground of an established manager that is not elite but has won trophies and punched above his weight recently (iirc he won more points in his first year or so at Villa than everyone except Pep and Arteta, he took Villa from 15th iirc to Europe last season etc). That's not say I think Liverpool should appoint him but it's worth noting that he's outperformed the media darling RDZ by some distance despite the latter inheriting a team that were in the top4 when Potter left compared to a team just above the relegation zone when Gerrard left.
 
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