Toshiba calling it quits on HD-DVD

Yeah some interesting debate going on in here. As for the PS3 taking over now that BD has won the format war.......... can't say I'm convinced.

DVD playback was a factor in the sales of PS2's for about 6 months at the most. The same will happen with the PS3. Standalone players will drop in price very rapidly now to compete with the PS3, you need to remember there are other companies producing Blu Ray players.

If Blu Ray is the biggest reason for the sales of PS3's I'm pretty sure some clever people at Microsoft have been planning for this day for months, and I don't think a standalone drive for the 360 is that much of a problem.

Blu Ray drives are poor for games, their transfer speeds are lower than the 12x DVD drive in a 360 and their seek times are also questionable as I've seen quotes from PS3 developers talking about workarounds - namely oblivion and DMC4 - for that problem. More to the point - the 360 is a very modular device - a core system is very cheap, stick an external Blu Ray drive on it similar in price to the HD drive and bamm cheapest Blu Ray player on the market. Ofcourse a dual format player would be even better :D

Video playback on gaming consoles is a secondary. Gamers want to play games that they like - movie lovers want to watch flims they like on a device that isn't full of fans.
Ofcourse there is overlap. I just happen to think that people have a priority one way or the other and that the "one box for all" just isn't workable in every situation.

Also I got Serenity free with my HD drive - I guess either people didn't know it was available or their confusing HD and Blu Ray :S
 
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Blu Ray drives are poor for games, their transfer speeds are lower than the 12x DVD drive in a 360 and their seek times are also questionable as I've seen quotes from PS3 developers talking about workarounds - namely oblivion and DMC4 - for that problem.

Im no expert and have hardly much of clue with regard to this but could this be a reason why Fifa 08 runs so bad compared to 360 due to cant stream quick enough off disk. ?

Or is it just the bad port that always suggested and it seems a lot of PS3 games require install to HDD for them to run well.
 
the 360 is a very modular device - a core system is very cheap, stick an external Blu Ray drive on it similar in price to the HD drive and bamm cheapest Blu Ray player on the market.

How do you work this out?

Xbox 360 Arcade, about £170? Blu-Ray addon probably around £110?

What mug would buy that instead of a PS3? Who is cheap enough to wanna save 20 odd quid instead of getting a PS3? You can get PS3's for £270 on the web.
 
How do you work this out?

Xbox 360 Arcade, about £170? Blu-Ray addon probably around £110?

What mug would buy that instead of a PS3? Who is cheap enough to wanna save 20 odd quid instead of getting a PS3? You can get PS3's for £270 on the web.

Cheaper than £270 infact. Sometimes as cheap as £250. Exactly as you say if you had neither machine you would be a mug to buy the seperate system.
 
OK, so you are calling me nuts..
My logic on this is reading around the subject, and using the rule of thumb and I must say optimistic rule that emerging technologies can halve in price per annum.. this is very rare, but lets just use it for now..
So, PS3, RRP£300 in year one, in year 2, £150, and year 3 £75
standalones, RRP £250ish in year 1, £125 in year 2, £62,50 in year three..
Now, although no hard figures exist, the magical figure of sub £100 is bounded around as the mass adoption price.. so lets say £50-£100, in this case, that would be year 3 of both the PS3 and standalones.. so there ismy logic, I believe it's researched and balanced, and in fact uses an entirely optimistic halving of price per year, clearly, the PS3 is not going to be £150 next year, but I'll just be generous in the calculations..
Then as above, it seems DVD took 6 years to reach VHS ownership levels, so again 3 years would seem a pretty good historical guess from that angle..

..

7 years after release and what is the price of the PS2 umm £90 (admittedly with a package) ooohhh and how many has it sold......

obviously not mass adoption by your view and cant have been a success because it didnt half in price every year (not sure what product this idea is based on because it very rarely happens)

This sub £100 limit before things become massive adopted is complete crock

http://www.mpaa.org/USEntertainmentIndustryMarketStats.pdf (page 30 )

"Total Average Selling Price for All Players in 2006 = $95
(Includes single DVD, Up Convert, DVD Recorder, DVD/VHS
combo, and Portable)"

As we all know tech prices over here you can basically swap $for £ - so AVERAGE in 2006 was around £100 and thats a few years AFTER you said it was massivly adopted

Yes a lot of people are seemingly buying cheap players in the range you are talking about but for every one of those there is someone else buying a much more expensive unit and thats still years after it was adopted by the masses

According to your figures therefore, in 2004 when dvd was widely adopted people where paying $/£300-400 per unit (on average) - $100 in 2006, $200 in 2005 and therefore $400 in 2006, Im just following your theory

Surely that proves either way you are wrong somewhere
 
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I don't care about the price of the player, Blu-Ray discs should come down in price, Joe Public isn't going to buy a Blu-Ray player if the movies on Blu-Ray are so expensive.
 
Firstly im not trying to be cheeky in anyway and i have to admit to being surprised that Joebob in particular supports my views on this as we often havnt agreed in the past. Thanks for that...
No problem. I was reading through some year old posts the other day (they were quite entertaining) and I think I can say that both of our opinions have changed since our spats of old ;)
 
I don't care about the price of the player, Blu-Ray discs should come down in price, Joe Public isn't going to buy a Blu-Ray player if the movies on Blu-Ray are so expensive.

They will eventually, because of competition between retaillers and as demand grows for it. Fox & Disney are two of the culprits that may keep theirs higher. Id guess that we might see some ploys going on in the industry from such companies.

Possibilities:
1: BD version releases with extra content and features
2: BD release coming shortly before DVD release
3: A reduced gap between the DVD & Blu Ray prices (currently about £5)
4: More concentration to push the BD version in marketing

Depending on each studio the above may differ.
Personally what i dont want to see is all these features not being put to good usage. Some BD titles have been pretty shabby on the extras. However titles like the new AVP look to be changing that which is available in April in the States and May in the UK. If companies release titles with good features it keeps everyone happy and makes it easier to swallow the extra money they cost. Personally id buy BD version everytime over the DVD. Mainly because i want the quality in audio and video, if im happy with the DVD im sure like most on here it wouldnt be hard to find a divx version. Thats the problem with DVD is piracy is so rampant and although BDs are also available mostly in mkv i appreciate buying a disc and enjoying it on the expensive hardware i purchased to enjoy it with in the first place. People that do get BD will go through a "WOW" factor when they see it on their new HDTV theyve purchased and sometimes thats enough to warrant over the bog standard DVD for them to continue to purchase BD. I havnt bought a DVD in 4 years, yet ive bought about a dozen BDs in 9 months.

Regards the debate, the PS3 for quite sometime has had upmarket standalone BD players selling at a simalar pricepoint. People in a vast majority have chosen the value and Playstation Branding of PS3 over a normal style standalone player. I mentioned this earlier if the PS3 maintains a similar price structure (within £50-£100) more than a standalone then imo it still represents enough advantages to maintain its sales in comparison. Also as i mentioned the PS3 as a games platform hasnt even reached its potential yet with many of its leading franchises yet to appear so the hype for the machine again in my opinion still hasnt reached its highest yet. BD playback, Home, with mnay great PS3 only games are whats going to drive its sales because youve got a great entertainment wireless device for the home that most families can enjoy. It offers probably the most value for money out of any entertainment device on the market today.
 
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How do you work this out?

Xbox 360 Arcade, about £170? Blu-Ray addon probably around £110?

What mug would buy that instead of a PS3? Who is cheap enough to wanna save 20 odd quid instead of getting a PS3? You can get PS3's for £270 on the web.

And you can get arcades for £150 on the web.
 
And you can get arcades for £150 on the web.

Great theory, problem is even if they decide to do a drive its gonna take about 9 months to get it developed, tested and on the market. By which time PC BD drives will have fallen to a mass market price point and i reckon mid range upwards laptops and new PC sales will all include a BD drive as standard.

Blu Ray is going to become the new buzzword just as 1080p was a major driving factor in the market.
 
DVD playback was a factor in the sales of PS2's for about 6 months at the most. The same will happen with the PS3. Standalone players will drop in price very rapidly now to compete with the PS3, you need to remember there are other companies producing Blu Ray players.
But these other companies, eventually, releasing cheaper BD players than the PS3 will in the long run actually help PS3 sales.

HD in general is going to see a massive upsurge in sales over the next year imo, with HDTV sales driving BD player sales and vice versa. HDTV's are already being adopted much quicker than previous formats before it. BD is now going to see a mass increase in advertising and promotion from not just the BD studios etc but also the retailers, as they have been waiting for a clear winner before really starting to push it.

Now the more BD players released to the market it stands to reason that the more BD films will be released. So the more people hear about BD being the next format then the more PS3's will be sold as a console with a BD player built in.

In the short term (before standalone BD players drop below the price of a PS3) then people buying the PS3 just for BD playback are also helping to increase the PS3 install base and help promote demand for the system. Now that BD has won, as the next format, I think the momentum the PS3 is going to gain in sales will suprise a lot of people. It's kind of self promoting, in a way, from now on in.
 
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I don't care about the price of the player, Blu-Ray discs should come down in price, Joe Public isn't going to buy a Blu-Ray player if the movies on Blu-Ray are so expensive.

Without doubt - but also remember that DVD's where the same price as BR's are now at the same stage of release, so give them a chance

Now there is only one standard hd disc, it will make things cheaper which will entice more customers, which will speed up the release schedule and start the circle again (hopefully)

Mr L , not sure it would take 9 months to develope a drive really, two minutes to swap the hardware manufacturing over one drive for another type - and if any are required to develope a BR update patch for the X360 (even if its required as its a usb device using the same codecs by and large) - am I being stupid or missing something? I dont see any reason for any lengthy testing requirements

PS I dont think MS will do it mind you, but just interested in why you said 9 months (admittedly maybe some weeks/months to get stock for fabrication process - this might be the major delay)
 
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7 years after release and what is the price of the PS2 umm £90 (admittedly with a package) ooohhh and how many has it sold......
LOL, You've lost the plot, the PS2 accounts for a very very small amount of DVD players sold, it may have sold loads, but DVD players have sold magnitudes more.. and it's a games console.. I'm lost as to the relevance of that point, other then a PS2 games machine, sold primarily to play games costs more than a DVD player? thanks for that..

obviously not mass adoption by your view and cant have been a success because it didnt half in price every year (not sure what product this idea is based on because it very rarely happens)
What the hell? We are talking the mass adoption of BR as opposed to DVD here, that's understood isnt' it? it's not about games console sales, see above, games consoles Vs DVD player sales are not even remotely on the same scale.. and see later on but the 50% for 'emerging' technologies was in favour of your BR price drop argument, I kept it ludicrously high to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that BR player prices wheren't going to drop quickly anytime soon.. LOL to the max..

This sub £100 limit before things become massive adopted is complete crock

http://www.mpaa.org/USEntertainmentIndustryMarketStats.pdf (page 30 )

"Total Average Selling Price for All Players in 2006 = $95
(Includes single DVD, Up Convert, DVD Recorder, DVD/VHS
combo, and Portable)"
No, it isn't... there are many many analysts that have said the sub $200 (£100) is only when it 'hots up' in essence, you figures you've found are almost irrelvant, since it doesn't show the % mix of each player type, if <1% of people buy DVD/VHS combo's and they cost $200 it massively skews that figure, I suspect the vast vast vast majority of people buy single DVD players, of which the breakdown is not shown in your figures, if you can't see what I'm talking about, then stop the 'debate'...

As we all know tech prices over here you can basically swap $for £ - so AVERAGE in 2006 was around £100 and thats a few years AFTER you said it was massivly adopted
Again, your figures are skewed, just look in highstreet catalogue place, at DVD player prices, these start at £17, most are under £50, and even DVD/VHS combo's are £70, premium DVD players, of which there are 2 are £90-£100.. not one is over £100.. so if the range is £17 to £100 with the majority under £50, clearly the average is going to be somehwere around £50, which is oddly roughly half of $96 and then again I think it's fair and easy to prove that the majority of people buy the sub £50 players..

Yes a lot of people are seemingly buying cheap players in the range you are talking about but for every one of those there is someone else buying a much more expensive unit and thats still years after it was adopted by the masses
just looking at the real world example previously, and not get hung up with the 'average price' nonsense that includes VHS/DVD Combo's etc that sell very few.. If 2/3rds of the DVD players stocked are all £17-£50 then clearly there is more demand at this end of the market..

According to your figures therefore, in 2004 when dvd was widely adopted people where paying $/£300-400 per unit (on average) - $100 in 2006, $200 in 2005 and therefore $400 in 2006, Im just following your theory
No, you saliently missed the rule of thumb for emerging technologies.. and in that the 50% was actually in favour of your argument, but the figures still didn't hold up.. Established technology hardware drops much less rapidly, if you don't understand this, again, stop responding.

Surely that proves either way you are wrong somewhere
No, it shows you don't understand statistics, and even if you did, you offer no counter 'evidence' at all about mass adoption rates, no sources from analsysts showing that the 'break through' price is much higher then £100/$200..

over and out.. it just isn't even worth it for the 'banter'.. I'm no expert, but I can understand numbers and can read analysts/expert opintion and reason with it.. What you are doing is plucking numbers that are skewed and almost irrelevant and then making up some 'prediction' scenario and challenging the experts.. that's just wrong..
 
Mr L , not sure it would take 9 months to develope a drive really, two minutes to swap the hardware manufacturing over one drive for another type - and if any are required to develope a BR update patch for the X360 (even if its required as its a usb device using the same codecs by and large) - am I being stupid or missing something? I dont see any reason for any lengthy testing requirements

PS I dont think MS will do it mind you, but just interested in why you said 9 months (admittedly maybe some weeks/months to get stock for fabrication process - this might be the major delay)


I assumed it took about that long from the original HD Drives announcement to reach the shelves. Theirs all the legal stuff to go through for releasing it in different countries. The software then has to be created,tested,bugfixed and meet all the standards for ref 2 etc. In theory yes youd think it would be simple to adapt the software code for the HD-DVD drive, but their may also be legal issues in that Microsoft cant just alter that software.

It certainly wont harm Sony that much if they release it. It wont be a factor of making huge profits from it neither. If anything Microsoft would look at the device to protect or maintain their customers to their platform rather than purchasing a PS3.
 
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No, it isn't... there are many many analysts that have said the sub $200 (£100) is only when it 'hots up'

See this part is wrong from the start if your allowing the American public a $200 figure then you should also estimate a £200 figure for the UK has the same effect. Each to their own currency not to exchange rates.

You just have to look at the HDTV market to see people want HDTV, 1080p and any cool or trendy gadgets . A vast majority of 18+ working people imo are all possible BD purchasers over the next 2-3 years. Sure the older parents will be slower to adopt but your forgetting that a film fan in his 20's when DVD first appeared is now in his 30's and more. Chances are that a larger majority of people this age now are into movies more than that age group when DVD first appeared. The movie industry has also vastly changed when releases could take upto a year after cinema release before they reached DVD. Now its commonly 4-6 months.

Dont take past history as todays growth perceptions or indeed the size of the market now.

Two facts for the debate:
BD is confirmed as the new defacto standard for high defination video
PS3 has been so far the best selling hardware supporting this format

im excited because i see more great films coming sooner than before with the war out of the way and i see the potential threat it means to Microsoft which possibly means they consider releasing their next console sooner also. Good news for most movie and game buffs like me.

"kotaku......
Sony's shares are up by almost 5% from yesterday. And whaddya know, it's mostly to do with Blu-Ray's victory over HD-DVD yesterday. But it's also because of the effect that victory will have on PS3 sales. With Blu-Ray now the only HD home video format on the market, it's going to look a lot more attractive to consumers than it did while the "format war" was in full swing. And what's one of the cheapest Blu-Ray players on the market? Why, the PS3, of course. You...you don't think Sony's whole strategy with the machine has been leading up to this very moment all along, do you?"
 
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