House prices..

Stinky said:
why does everything generalize estate agents like this?? annoys me :( there was a thread regarding IT tech's being up there own bottoms and it was said in there how to many people generalize ;)



That is rubbish lol. They do work on a UK average, which varies so much its unbelivable.



That site (forum part) can be very depresing at times, although there is a lot of good stuff on there worth a read.

sorry for the late reply i been wait on my suspension :( (sorry all)
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Sorry but your annecdotal evidence for your corner of Devon is worth near the square root of sod all on a national scale.

Saying that it is all 'media hype' is like putting your fingers in your ears and closing your eyes. The key you are missing is the numbers behind the stories Look at those, learn a little about economics, the state of UK public finances, and the world economy, and then tell me we're not heading for a protacted and long overdue large correction.
 
Bes said:
Sorry but your annecdotal evidence for your corner of Devon is worth near the square root of sod all on a national scale.

Saying that it is all 'media hype' is like putting your fingers in your ears and closing your eyes. The key you are missing is the numbers behind the stories Look at those, learn a little about economics, the state of UK public finances, and the world economy, and then tell me we're not heading for a protacted and long overdue large correction.
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if you check all my posts i have always said that what i am saying is regarding the market in my area. i have always said that!

however, the media have had a MASSIVE part to play in it all!

with regards to the "large correction" this happened about 6months ago around here. all are prices where changed accordingly. now you wont belive that as im just another estate agent trying to lie! but its true.

i cannot( and will not change my mind untill i see it happening) see there being a huge decrease in the market like people are forcasting!
 
Stinky said:
if you check all my posts i have always said that what i am saying is regarding the market in my area. i have always said that!

however, the media have had a MASSIVE part to play in it all!

with regards to the "large correction" this happened about 6months ago around here. all are prices where changed accordingly. now you wont belive that as im just another estate agent trying to lie! but its true.

i cannot( and will not change my mind untill i see it happening) see there being a huge decrease in the market like people are forcasting!
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Keep dreaming, I think the figures are beginning to tell a tale of their own. even the optimistic RICs believe sales will fall by 40% this year. Sod house prices falling even if they don't and sales just plummet you wont be making any commission. I suspect that could be even worse down in holiday home corner.
 
even mainstream people are predicting as much as a 15% fall this year - an incredibly high amount for just one year (it would be an all time record i believe) - the US has just had a 3.2% drop in one month - ONE MONTH!!
Thats the biggest fall ever - thats whats coming here, and ignore any arguments of supply and demand, they are nonsense.
 
aardvark said:
even mainstream people are predicting as much as a 15% fall this year - an incredibly high amount for just one year (it would be an all time record i believe) - the US has just had a 3.2% drop in one month - ONE MONTH!!
Thats the biggest fall ever - thats whats coming here, and ignore any arguments of supply and demand, they are nonsense.
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Don't worry we have the miracle economy. Forget multiple of salaries, credit crunch and fears of recession.
 
Third Opinion said:
Keep dreaming, I think the figures are beginning to tell a tale of their own. even the optimistic RICs believe sales will fall by 40% this year. Sod house prices falling even if they don't and sales just plummet you wont be making any commission. I suspect that could be even worse down in holiday home corner.
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well there has been no drop in sales for the office i work in. yes its been quiet with people not coming in / calling. but the sales are still there. i had 2 completions today with another 2 exchanging in the next week!


i hope that it does get worse down here in "holiday home corner" as you put it! maybe it will give the locals some places to buy. It ****** me off so much when everything is being bought as a holiday home! yes its a sale. but thats the main reason why i cant afford to buy my first place! to many city folk!

and do you seriously think prices will fall 40% in one year? seriously?

i am not shying away from the possibility of a decline, i myself a few pages prior have said im expecting 10% fall. but not even close to as bad as people seem to make out!
 
Stinky said:
well there has been no drop in sales for the office i work in. yes its been quiet with people not coming in / calling. but the sales are still there. i had 2 completions today with another 2 exchanging in the next week!
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The market is very different up here, my girlfriends solicitors have just given 40 people the boot from the mortgage department. And few properties seem to be shifting.
 
Muffin` said:
Why? Do you think with growing unemployment
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Unemployment did rise slightly based on last month's numbers, but this change is dwarfed by the fall over the year (-82,300). It's considerably lower than during the peak of the housing boom. Employment is also at the highest level since records begain (1971).
 
Stinky said:
and do you seriously think prices will fall 40% in one year? seriously?

i am not shying away from the possibility of a decline, i myself a few pages prior have said im expecting 10% fall. but not even close to as bad as people seem to make out!
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No one's expecting 40% price falls in a year. 40% less sales maybe, but not 40% lower price. I don't think you realise just what a 10% fall means, the fastest falls every and likely to lead to a worse crash than the 89-94 crash.
 
Looking at some numbers there was a pretty massive yearly decline at the end of the 80s:

October 1989: 109195
October 1990: 88673

Yearly fall: ~18.8%
 
It's no way going to get as bad as that this time...
The economics are different this time. The problem last time was interest rates getting up to 17%! Mass reposessions. There will be a slight correction, but I don't think anyone is predicting a recession as bad as last time....
 
Thorien, interest rates don't need to go as high to have the same effect as 'we' are more indebted. The falls we are seeing this year are likely to be faster than at any time in 89-94, and also the volume is forecast to fall faster. The indications are that this is worse than last time.
 
Interesting stat I read the other day:

"In the three years to 2007, 71% of first-time buyers' mortgages were made on a capital and interest repayment basis compared to only 17% in the three years to 1989," it added.

Very suprising to see only 17% of FTB mortgages being repayment mortgages in the late 80s - I suppose back then the logic was that you need to get in the housing ladder ASAP even if you don't have the cash now, because due to rocketing prices you will be rolling in it when the term ends / house sold, and can simply pocket the difference.
 
As I have stated in another post, my wifes mate used to own a Remax franchise. She had over 100 properties on the books a few months back (and still had when she sold the franchise) - nothing has sold for the last 2 months - so how would this Estate agent pay for 6 staff members ? In fact, nearly all the major estate agents here are suffering - and another one has just gone belly-up (with most laying off staff)

And this recently from the Belfast Telegraph :
"In the first three months of this year, there were 896 transactions compared to 2,120 over the same period a year ago."

This is the lowest number of house sales in Northern Ireland for 25 years - and is the figure for THE WHOLE of Northern Ireland (or the main estate agents surveyed). Thats only an average of 300 houses per month. Quite Shocking.

And this from the BBC 2 months ago.
"The average price of a house in Northern Ireland has fallen by £20,000. The end of 2007 saw prices drop so that the average house was worth £230,000 compared with a peak last summer of £250,000."

"Belfast - £225,424, down by 12.7% over the quarter but up 17.5% over the year. South Belfast remained the most expensive, followed by the east, north and west. "
"Terraced and town houses were down by 6%, semi-detached houses by 7.3%, detached houses by 8.1% and semi-detached bungalows by 4.1%. However, new-build apartments bucked the trend by rising 6.6% while detached bungalows showed a marginal 0.2% increase. "


"Mid-Ulster - £218,120, a fall of 25.5% over the quarter and down 0.6% on the year, reversing previous unsustainable rates of growth."
 
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aardvark said:
even mainstream people are predicting as much as a 15% fall this year - an incredibly high amount for just one year (it would be an all time record i believe) - the US has just had a 3.2% drop in one month - ONE MONTH!!
Thats the biggest fall ever - thats whats coming here, and ignore any arguments of supply and demand, they are nonsense.
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yes but that 3% is in places like detroit

prices are rising in NY and California or so I heard
 
Im an estate agent. Had 3 offers accepted this week, which is great for us. Things have slowed but we are still selling. All 3 were nicely presented houses in good areas.

The way I see it here is that the houses that were overpriced anyway are the ones that are having to reduce to sell by 5-10%. The media will call this a crash to report something. But in essence its just the reality of a rising then falling market.

In Beverley here it is very sought after and prices are steady. The villages on the east of Beverley have always been cheaper to live in but in the rising market they have been wanting prices to match the Beverley values and were getting it 2 years ago to some extent. Now they are stuck on the market overpriced and have to reduce to real prices for their area (so called crash).

Sorry for rambling but im tired...
 
But who are the people that make the prices, estate agents, you are just making normal wages rather than ripping people off for a quick buck.
 
Spit said:
The way I see it here is that the houses that were overpriced anyway are the ones that are having to reduce to sell by 5-10%. The media will call this a crash to report something. But in essence its just the reality of a rising then falling market.
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But that's just what a 'crash' is - a sizeable fall in average sale prices, irrespective of the reason for it, or whether people were previously paying 'over the odds' for houses. The housing market data doesn't care about 'value' - it's just pure, cold numbers.
 
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