What's the Odds off this happening then ?

I Love the way a thread about 3 double yokers can cause a row. :p

Damn those Pesky Yokes. :mad:
 
Hatter The Mad said:
Yes, why isn't it?

When you roll a dice, the chances of rolling a 3 is 1/6. Roll the dice again. What are the chances of rolling ANOTHER 4? They're still 1/6.

Your way of thinking is the gambler's fallacy, and is fundamentally flawed. You are just as likely to get 10 double yokers and 1 single yoker (when cracking 11 eggs) as you are 10 single yokers and 1 double.
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O.o

The chances of it happening on a single basis isn't lower...

In other words 50 / 50 still, BUT the chances of it happening in a row become lower each time.
 
Pilky01 said:
You are completely wrong.
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The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending upon recent occurrences.
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I'm open to being told why I am wrong, if you would explain it to me :confused:

For example, suppose that a sequence of seven coin flips came up with five heads and two tails. What is the probability of getting tails on the next coin flip? A sportscaster would say that "the law of averages" says that we are more likely to get tails.

But there is no law of averages! The chance of getting tails on the next coin flip is 1/2.

What is true is that we expect that as the number of coin flips gets large, the proportion of heads will become closer to 50 percent. However, that is because going forward, we expect about half of the flips to be tails, not because we expect the coin to know that it has an excess of three heads and it needs to come up tails more often to make up for it.
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http://arnoldkling.com/apstats/coins.html
 
If you are about to flip a coin then the chances are 50/50 no matter what came before that.

But the chances of getting 10 heads in a row is significantly lower than 50/50.
 
Coin flipping:

Chance of getting 1x head = 50%

because the possible outcomes are:

1) Heads
2) Tails

Chance of getting 2x heads in a row = 25%

because the possible outcomes are:

1) Heads, Heads
2) Heads, Tails
3) Tails, Tails
4) Tails, Heads

So even though the chance of getting the heads on ONE COIN is 50%, the chance of getting it on BOTH COINS is only 25%.

Get it now Hatter?

So even if he had a 25% chance of getting a double yolk, it would be 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 (x100) = 1.5625% chance of ALL 3 being double yolks (if I remember my GCSE math correctly).
 
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Hatter The Mad said:
Nope, no difference. Why does one egg have the ability to affect the other (which is what you're effectively saying).
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Thats like saying to win the lottery you only need to match the first number up since the number of balls doesn't matter....

Quite clearly wrong. You need to multiple the probabilities.
 
malc30 said:
Pics or it didn't happen. :D




It's only a once a week ritual, The rest of the week I eat recently fallen fruit & only drink Holy water.
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:eek: EVERY WEEK!?

Before he openeed the pack he had a smaller chance of them all being double yolkers. But after he did the first one it got more and more likley. If you are looking at the probability of each one at a time then they all have the same probability of being a double yolker despite what the one before them was.
 
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malc30 said:
:confused: What is this witchcraft of what you speak.

I turn All aplliances to MAX, Then I fire more volts through it to get it proper steaming & then I just sling food on it until it darkens, easier than a bon fire but not as tasty.
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:D:D:D

Winner.

I've only ever had one double come from a "normal" egg in my life !

However, I shall be having a big breakfast next monday ! om nom nom
 
Hatter The Mad said:
No - you cannot "combine" the probabilities. The probabilities of getting double-yokers are strictly independently and relative only to one egg.
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Of course you can. In the same way to find the probability of 2 consecutive heads you multiply the chance of getting one head by the chance of getting one head given that you got a head the first time. 0.5*0.5 = 0.25.

You're getting this the wrong way around. You can multiply the probabilities together precisely because they're independent.

This is not a case of gambler's fallacy. That would be like this:

  • I've just got a double-yolker
  • Therefore the chance of my next egg being a double-yolker must be even smaller!

Which is obviously wrong. But what we're actually stating is not the gambler's fallacy. It's that an event with a small probability happening 3 times in a row has a much smaller probability than it only happening once.
 
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