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Fermi delayed till May

The difference is speculation and rumours said ATI were getting about 40% yields before TSMC fixed the faults in it's machines but Charlie is saying Fermi is still only getting single digit yields.
 
well there will be some cards at least in march with general availability month/s later (so the may thing is a little misleading), not all that different with 58** last year I guess
 
Oh well guess I will just save my money and wait till I see that pig flying across my window in may then ;)

Is it worth getting a 5870 now or waiting for these northern islands cards ?
 
KillBoY_UK said:
well there will be some cards at least in march with general availability month/s later (so the may thing is a little misleading), not all that different with 58** last year I guess
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No mate, it says Q2 May at the earliest. Actually it says Q2 2011 but I think we can assume thats a typo.:D
 
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So nothing new then, people have been saying limited March/April launch with most partners not getting cards til may for awhile.
 
paradigm said:
No, Charlie (as always) used far too much hyperbole and was far too melodramatic. In that last article (about metal and base respins), Charlie was adamant that it would take a minimum of 6 months (the time it would take to tape out a base-layer respin, taking the silicon to B1) before the architecture could be manufactured in a "fixed" state.

Last time I checked, March > May is 2 months.

If Charlie were to be a little more conservative in his "predictions", and was to only state fact rather than speculation, he might be taken more seriously.
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Again you're misinterpreting what he said.

He said a full relaying out of the core in a proper respin would take at least 2-3months, because simply put it takes a lot longer between them going to tape out to alter them. Another respin(which is whats rumoured) will again only take another couple months as per usual(which would have been started a while ago).

You keep taking him to say its broken, as no cores can come out at all, thats not the case.

Fermi as a product as designed by Nvidia is supposed to be an architecture that can be produced in all segments that can be sold at a profit, its a complete an utter failure, it will never do that..... so its a broken design/chip. Thats what he means, they can clearly make some cores, but they'll not sell 2 million cores on the Fermi architecture, it just won't happen.

Personally I reckon the current hot lots will be released in whatever form they can, likely 120-150k cores of various design, a max of around 70-80k 480gtx's, the rest heavily salvaged parts. Another basic respin, 6 weeks later, another batch of hot lots being sold thats about it.

The thing is now, the cost involved and time required to do a complete respin, even if its successful it will be ready weeks/months before TSMC is due with 28nm, and before their next gen chip should be closing in on being ready. So even if it worked, it wouldn't have any time to sell in great quantity.

They'll do their best to salvage a few sales, have a few parts out and claim top performance(hopefully), then get to spinning why they become unavailable. With TSMC completely reliant on Nvidia after AMD leave, I wouldn't think they'd mind taking the PR hit of production being their fault, while Nvidia run around saying "we can make them, its TSMC screwed up, look we had a whole 100k chips sold before TSMC screwed up, its not us, honest guv".

Which is probably about the best plan Nvidia could come up with, considering the very limited release, selling them at absurd prices could really pee off AMD. If Nvidia had a brain they'd sell them at £200, then blame TSMC for lack of more cards, while telling everyone that can listen that AMD is ripping their customers off, which would probably cause some price drops on AMD parts, which would at least limit how much profit they make.
 
Freddie1980 said:
The difference is speculation and rumours said ATI were getting about 40% yields before TSMC fixed the faults in it's machines but Charlie is saying Fermi is still only getting single digit yields.
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AMD's yields aren't fixed, the machinery being fixed at TSMC allowed it to get back up to 9k wafers produced a month, it didn't effect the yield per wafer in any way at all. Yields suck on 40nm, the bigger the core the more they suck, thats ALWAYS been true of every process since the time you could literally see each transistor because they were so big :p

THe bigger the core, the worse the yield, the problem is, a HUGE Fermi would still have ok yields if smaller cores had great yields. IE if the 5770 was at 90% yields, the 5870 would probably be at 75-80% yields at Fermi might come in with 50-60% yields. THe problem is 5770's are probably doing around 60-70%, 5870's are probably still getting sub 50%, and Fermi is right down in the toilet at 10-20% best case.

The process is naff and hasn't and won't be fixed. TSMC new it was dead, its why theres still almost no production at 40nm because TSMC don't expect any other customers to waste their time with it, and it will be shut down the second both companies move off it. 28nm uptake will probably be several times higher than 40nm, and most of their clients will eventually use it. Basically theres no profit long term investing in 40nm, they knew it was broken from the start, have improved VERY marginally and given up throwing money at a lost cause.
 
rolypolyman said:
'but Nvidia is still ok to start shipping in its financial Q1 2010 that ends in late April this year'

'Naturally, full availability is expected in Q2 of real world and Nvidia's Q2 that runs from April to July.'

So Q1 ends late April and Q2 starts err... April. Mmm...:p
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He's always been a complete moron, I mean complete, there was an article he's posted many times claiming TSMC production problems whenever its Nvidia, but when its AMD its they under estimated demand, the fact that TSMC have a flat 9k limit on wafers per month, (6k during the broken equipment months) and they've been producing that amount every month. You can't order more than is available, or you can, you can't receive more than they can produce though. He's just a complete twit.
 
I do wonder if NV has their successor GPU ready in waiting, similar to what happened with the X1800 delay and X1900 release. Fermi may have completely missed its release targets but there's no reason to suspect that Fermi2 will be this far behind too.
 
It is starting to get a bit ridiculus. I have to say though that it has saved me a boat load of cash. I was waiting to see what nvidia came up with this round before deciding what to buy next but in reality I've been playing bioshock 2, borderlands, dragon age origins and nfs shift on my sli 8800GTS 512s at 1920x1200 at 60fps with no problems what so ever. Is there anything out at the moment that really needs the current lineup of top cards or could most of us probably skip this round and wait for the second batch of Dx11 cards to be released?
 
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