ATI's next generation plans outed - Before Nvidia gets GF100 finished

bhavv · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:24

http://www.semiaccurate.com./2010/03/30/atis-next-generation-outed/

IT LOOKS LIKE the GPU roadmaps are being torn up and plan B's are coming out of the woodwork left and right. The current problem? TSMC's 28nm process, or lack thereof.

When we first told you about ATI's Northern Islands, (here, way at the bottom) the plan was simple - a new architecture on next generation 28nm HKMG processes, coming out in the next new year, 2011. The lead off parts were due to come on TSMC's 28nm process, which is set for Q1/2011, followed by derivatives on GlobalFoundries' 28nm process. Since that was due about a quarter after TSMC, the first out of the gate was going to be TSMC.

The problem is that from SemiAccurate's unscientific poll of asking several involved companies, no one seems to have any confidence that TSMC will deliver 28nm HKMG on time. Many expressed skepticism that it will deliver at all, but let's give it the benefit of the doubt here.

If you recall, TSMC 40nm was set to come out in Q4 of 2008, and it wasn't working until Q4 of 2009, more or less. Problems still plague some users though. We broke the news that TSMC canceled it's 32nm node completely, something the company has never done before.

Northern Islands(NI) from ATI and the next generation of Nvidia parts were slated to use the 32nm process, and several ATI slides have leaked showing that explicitly. When 32nm was pulled, the decision initially was made to move NI to 28nm, delaying it by a quarter or two. Fair enough.

Meanwhile, TSMC threw out its 28nm process and replaced it with a completely different one. TSMC initially claimed to use a technique called 'gate first', and that was slipping by quarters at a time. One day, it announced that it threw 'gate first' out the window and replaced it with 'gate last', a completely different process. On top of this, it pulled the roadmap in a quarter.

To call companies skeptical of the new roadmap is being overly kind. No one believed it, but what can they do? Easy, put plan C into place, and for ATI, that is called Southern Islands.

Southern Islands (SI) is a 40nm family, and from early information, it looks to be a hybrid between Evergreen and Northern Islands. The architectural details are quite slim now, but it looks like ATI took the uncore from NI and put the shaders from Evergreen on it. Think of it as taking the parts that were done and available, and putting them together.

Because it is the only option at this point, SI will be built on TSMC's 40nm process. This is good because it is known, and ready, pulling in the timetables. Low risk means low chance of problems and quick time to market. Expect SI sometime this fall. Rumors abound that some family members have already taped out, but that is far from confirmed.

In any case, ATI will likely have a fully refreshed lineup before Nvidia has its Fermi GF100 GTX4xx line fully out the door. It looks like this fall's GPU battle will be more of a howitzer versus pen knife match rather than a duel.

D.P. · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:30

Ignoring all the anti-NV BS from the raving mad lunatic, this is not good news for anyone really.

The next ATI chip will be bigger and hotter, much like the current GF100, if they have to use the same 40nm process.

Nvida will have a very tweaked respin of the GF100 architecture within 6 months.

rypt · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:33

D.P. said:
The next ATI chip will be bigger and hotter, much like the current GF100, if they have to use the same 40nm process.

They already use the current 40nm process just fine for 5xxx so I assume they know what they are doing unlike NV

Tute · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:35

D.P. said:
The next ATI chip will be bigger and hotter, much like the current GF100, if they have to use the same 40nm process.

Source?

Nvida will have a very tweaked respin of the GF100 architecture within 6 months.

Source?

bhavv · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:39

Charlie was right about a lot of things regarding the Fermi, in fact he got just about everything about it right.

I find what he has to say far less annoying then anything that Nvidia say to promote themselves.

HeX · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:46

Gah, well, this complicates things.

Do I bother getting a 5870 now, when this refresh will be hitting before the end of the year.

Think I might just stick with my 5770 over summer and wait for the 6XXX's.

psychas · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:47

i doubt it 5*** still in big demand

RavenXXX2 · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:48

Wait, 5770 is a cracking card and will certainly last over the summer.

HeX · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:50

RavenXXX2 said:
Wait, 5770 is a cracking card and will certainly last over the summer.

Oh yes, my 5770 is excellent, but i've got money burning a hole and was going to pick up a nice custom cooled 5870 to sit on for the next year or so.

But with the refresh coming, I think I'll wait.

D.P. · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:51

rypt said:
They already use the current 40nm process just fine for 5xxx so I assume they know what they are doing unlike NV

If they want the next GPU faster and with more features the chip will get bigger.

straxusii · 31 Mar 2010 at 09:53

Charlie is raving, but to be fair he was spot on about Fermi

Turambar · 31 Mar 2010 at 10:04

Hmm, if the Global Foundries 28nm is still on schedule why not just delay NI by a quarter?

HeX · 31 Mar 2010 at 10:18

Turambar said:
Hmm, if the Global Foundries 28nm is still on schedule why not just delay NI by a quarter?

They will probably use SI as a refresh, then do that and bring NI out in 2011 on the completed 28nm.

SI is just a stepping stone between, and so they can be seen to be bringing out new hardware.

redeye_uk · 31 Mar 2010 at 10:20

Fair play to ATI for having a robust set of contingency plans in place.

Problem is I dont want a half way horse. Although D.P. lacked any sauce, he probably isnt too wide of the mark when he says the new chip will be bigger, hotter [and more power hungry] . Think i'll stick with my 4870 and wait for NI proper.

HeX · 31 Mar 2010 at 10:21

Also it's a good opportunity to test out the parts of NI they have completed.

Mr Fujisawa · 31 Mar 2010 at 10:22

Isn't the reason for this though that the 5*** series isn't brand new architecture but gf100 is? So ATI's brand new has probably been in the works for a while.

Baboonanza · 31 Mar 2010 at 10:37

D.P. said:
The next ATI chip will be bigger and hotter, much like the current GF100, if they have to use the same 40nm process.

rypt said:
They already use the current 40nm process just fine for 5xxx so I assume they know what they are doing unlike NV

You would certainly expect it to be bigger and hotter than the current 58xx cards, but it shouldn't be anything like as bad as Fermi. By that time ATi will have had a lot of experience with designing chips for the 40nm process and they should be able to increase the performance of the chips without increasing the size too much by increasing the clocks. And a lot of nVidias problems came from things that ATi designed around (like poor VIAs and incorrect transitor sizes) so you would expect them not to suffer the same high voltage requirements that Fermi has.

Given ATi's excellent recent record at delivering on 40nm I don't doubt they can produce a faster chip on it without the related problems that Fermi has. It won't be a giant leap over Evergreen though, with the possible exception of tesselation which is pretty weak currently.

wolvers · 31 Mar 2010 at 12:50

Instead of sitting around on your laurels because of a problem with the initial plan, draw up another plan and keep pushing your products forward. I like it.

deusexlumina · 31 Mar 2010 at 14:04

really good to see ati doing this kind of thing, although this means prices are still gonna be high at least they are pushing forward and getting the new hardware out the door. Was considering a 5000 series but if its gonna be available this autumn i may as well wait for it, to be honest my 4870 hasn't struggled on any of the games i play as of yet.

kylew · 31 Mar 2010 at 14:16

D.P. said:
Ignoring all the anti-NV BS from the raving mad lunatic, this is not good news for anyone really.

The next ATI chip will be bigger and hotter, much like the current GF100, if they have to use the same 40nm process.

Nvida will have a very tweaked respin of the GF100 architecture within 6 months.

I don't know what you just read but they were talking about ATi not slagging off nVidia, seriously, are you that deluded that the words in articles that you read, reform themselves in to anti nVidia nonsense? :confused:

Two mentions of nVidia in that article:

Northern Islands(NI) from ATI and the next generation of Nvidia parts were slated to use the 32nm process

In any case, ATI will likely have a fully refreshed lineup before Nvidia has its Fermi GF100 GTX4xx line fully out the door.

HOW is that "anti-NV BS from the raving mad lunatic"?

What's wrong with you?