Poll: New poll on who you will vote for?

[scorza]

http://act.libdems.org.uk/group/lib...rm/forum/topics/current-liberal-democrat-drug

Hmm I'm not sure about the Liberal Democrat policy on drugs, which is to take it closer to outright decriminalisation, and evidence based legislation. But if Nick says it's in Britain's best interest then I'm prepared to judge any scheme the Lib Dems come up with on a results basis.

 

[Burnsy2023]

This is wrong on two counts: firstly, it's no longer "comically unlikely" that the Lib Dems will get in - in fact, some polls put them in the lead

Unfortunately, although they may by far get the popular vote, because of the way the system works, they would never have anywhere enough seats to form a government.

 

[robgmun]

they would need a 41% lead or something LOL!

 

[Mr Jack]

Unfortunately, although they may by far get the popular vote, because of the way the system works, they would never have anywhere enough seats to form a government.

That depends on where the votes are. Predictions based on Uniform National Swing don't give them many seats; but polling data so far (which is pretty weak, frankly) shows them having a much bigger swing in areas where they have been historically weak (north of England, basically) which if repeated in the election would give them a far better result than UNS predicts. Secondly, their biggest lead is among younger voters; historically a group who don't vote much (which pollsters mostly weight for) but it's possible that the Lib Dems could get this vote out. If that happens then it's possible (although I accept unlikely) that the Lib Dems could turn a poll lead into a seat lead.

 

[Von Smallhausen]

I don't understand how anyone who works hard, pays tax and plays by society's rules can even contemplate voting Labour.

 

[Narj]

I don't understand how anyone who works hard, pays tax and plays by society's rules can even contemplate voting Labour.

I just hope all the state-sponsored lot can't be bothered to get out of bed and vote come election day!

 

[RDM]

We do? How/Why?

Lisbon Treaty/Constitution vote. Basically they said what they needed to in their manifesto to win/keep votes but when it came time to the vote they went against their promise. Why is it any different this time?

 

[Glaucus]

Reworking the national grid is on the way anyway, I think all the major parties mention it somewhere.

There is a massive difference between remodelling and making the grid work with mainly renewable energy. It is not just about energy usage. But base and peak loads. It is a very changeable thing.

And intercontinental cooperation - what a magnificent idea! .

yes an idea, a great idea, but an idea. the time scale we have it is not possible for the immediate future. it will happen, but after we cope with the immediate future.

I've read up on breeder reactors. Brilliant idea. Very much for.

Then why cote for a party that wants to kill nuclear and has no way of replacing it and securing are energy needs for the next couple of decades.

The electricity usage will go up, but the total power usage will go down. Such a system is much more efficient.

Yes energy usage will drop, but you seem completely unaware that we use many many many times more energy from oil, than we do from electrical. Hence electrical production will have to increase 100's of times.

 

[Mr Jack]

Lisbon Treaty/Constitution vote. Basically they said what they needed to in their manifesto to win/keep votes but when it came time to the vote they went against their promise. Why is it any different this time?

No Lib Dem MP votes against any of the three referendum proposals over the Lisbon Treaty so I'm not very sure what you're talking about?

 

[Tombstone]

This is wrong on two counts: firstly, it's no longer "comically unlikely" that the Lib Dems will get in - in fact, some polls put them in the lead - for the first time in my lifetime there is a choice other than the rock of Labour and Hard Place of the Tories. Secondly, even if the Libs don't win a hung parliament is much more likely than a win for either Labour or Conservatives and you can bet than PR will be among the price of getting Lib Dem support.

We will have some kind of PR system at the next general election one way or the other.

Them being in the lead is irrelevant, as my image earlier in this thread showed, the Lib Dems can win the election and would still only end up 3rd in Parliament. So no..its not wrong at all.

It would take an enormous, enormous amount of people to vote Lib Dems and very very few people to vote Tory or Labour in order for Lib Dems to get in. I would even go so far as it would require a vast majority of voting people to all decide to vote Lib.

Even if there was a hung parliament I very much doubt that either Lab or Cons would agree to PR just so they can ally with Lib. I've no doubt they would concede on other issues, but PR wouldnt be one of them.

Just in case anyone missed it earlier, here is the Lib Dems winning the election with 32% of the vote, even then they are over 100 seats short of just being in opposition, let alone actually "winning". I see absolutely no realistic way that Lib can win in this election, the absolute best they could hope for (and even that is an extreme long shot given the system) is to get into opposition.

I may be wrong of course, but right now I will VERY willingly bet a year of my wages against someone elses that Lib wont end with a Lib majority. Thats how confident I am that it simply wont happen.

 

[PMKeates]

We must bear in mind that the popular vote -> seats calculations that are going on are expecting a uniform national swing and are tailored to the way our two-party system has historically functioned.

The people who understand this more than myself and probably anyone in this thread are saying that, in actuality, the the way in which the share of the vote changes will have an impact that cannot accurately be predicted at this time.

 

[Mr Jack]

Just in case anyone missed it earlier, here is the Lib Dems winning the election with 32% of the vote, even then they are over 100 seats short of just being in opposition, let alone actually "winning". I see absolutely no realistic way that Lib can win in this election, the absolute best they could hope for (and even that is an extreme long shot given the system) is to get into opposition.

Two weeks ago no one would have given them any chance of being second in the polls, let alone ahead in some. Things can change.

Also, as I pointed out in my previous post, the prediction you give is based on Uniform National Swing; which is not what appears to be occuring.

 

[Oxide™]

could we not have an option to customise the government and just use the best policies from each party?

According to voteforpolicies.org.uk this would be my ideal government:

BNP 44.44% Crime, Economy, Health, Welfare
Lib Dems 11.11% Democracy
Conservatives 11.11% Education
Green Party 11.11% Environment
UKIP 22.22% Europe, Immigration

Odd that for me I agree the most with the BNP and I'm a foreigner (actually last month I submitted for naturalisation so hopefully that comes through before any drastic changes to citizenship etc lol)

 

[Tombstone]

Two weeks ago no one would have given them any chance of being second in the polls, let alone ahead in some. Things can change.

Also, as I pointed out in my previous post, the prediction you give is based on Uniform National Swing; which is not what appears to be occuring.

I still stand by my opinion that there is no realistic way that Lib will end with a Lib majority (or even likely in opposition). I'm not hugely happy about that, personally I would rather it be Tory in majority with Lib in opposition this time round, but I can admit that its unlikely to happen.

Of course my wager offer is fully open if anyone wants to take me up on it. I am always happy to get money

 

[nighoftheeighth]

The vote power index site is very interesting. I will be voting lib dems even though it seems the vote won't count for much in my constituency. John Prescotts former seat.

PR seems to me a good idea.

 

[Mr Jack]

I still stand by my opinion that there is no realistic way that Lib will end with a Lib majority (or even likely in opposition). I'm not hugely happy about that, personally I would rather it be Tory in majority with Lib in opposition this time round, but I can admit that its unlikely to happen.

I think a hung parliament is considerably more likely than a majority for any of the three parties. I expect to see either a Tory Minority government with a series of Tory/Lib deals to get stuff through or a Tory/Lib coalition.

 

[Tombstone]

I think a hung parliament is considerably more likely than a majority for any of the three parties. I expect to see either a Tory Minority government with a series of Tory/Lib deals to get stuff through or a Tory/Lib coalition.

That I can agree with. I think we are almost unquestionably heading for a hung parliament (unfortunately), I also agree that we're likely to see Tory/Lib deals to make it work. (unless the Tories are SO close that they can sway smaller partys rather than have to deal with another major one)

 

[Hatter The Mad]

 

[joeyjojo]

Then why cote for a party that wants to kill nuclear and has no way of replacing it and securing are energy needs for the next couple of decades.

They represent most of my views well. One aspect of the manifesto isn't a dealbreaker. It's not very likely to have a party who I agree with on every single policy..

Hmm I'm not sure about the Liberal Democrat policy on drugs, which is to take it closer to outright decriminalisation, and evidence based legislation.

Drug Policy of Portugal

A study by Glenn Greenwald (commissioned by the libertarian Cato Institute) found that in the five years after the start of decriminalization, illegal drug use by teenagers had declined, the rate of HIV infections among drug users had dropped, deaths related to heroin and similar drugs had been cut by more than half, and the number of people seeking treatment for drug addiction had doubled, while usage in the EU continued to increase, including in states with "hard-line drug policies."

 

[Glaucus]

They represent most of my views well. One aspect of the manifesto isn't a dealbreaker. It's not very likely to have a party who I agree with on every single policy..

Energy security and econnomy should be at the top of everyones list, without either the country doesn't function and makes any other police useless. You are right no one will have exactly what you want, but there certainly should be certain policies that are deal breakers. Energy and screwing over large corporations should be on everyones dealbreak list.