Europe to be a Muslim majority in our lifetime?

I'm not worried to be honest, it just made me think that's all.

Okay the stat about going from 82k to 2.5million is a rubbish one to base future growth on in the UK but it does seem that the Western European birth rate is descreasing and is less than Muslims.

So the video may well exagerate the time frame but surely there will come a time and not that far off when Muslims will be the majority in Europe? Say we have an average of 1 child per person and a Muslim family have an average of 2. It's not many generations before a minority of 5% of the population become the majority.
 
Greebo said:
Say we have an average of 1 child per person and a Muslim family have an average of 2. It's not many generations before a minority of 5% of the population become the majority.
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Yes it is

With your extreme example where non-muslim population is halving per generation and muslim population remains constant, then it would take 5 generations for there to be more muslims than non-muslims in the UK.

Obviously those figures are really representative, and the reality is most western europe sit around or just below 2, and muslims moving to those countries will revert to that mean.

If muslims were to retain a birth rate of 3 compared to europeans 2, then it would be 8 generations before they became the majority.

You're talking 100's of years, over which birth rates for either could vary massively.
 
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Spawn said:
And ill just quote it again for good measure:).

Awesome scaremongering of the highest calibre there i must say:p
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Okay, I accept now that they have used some dodgy statistics to scaremonger and that really nobody has any idea of birthrates of the future, but what happens if Muslim birthrates are higher than european ones for decades? Surely this could happen?
 
In the Netherlands - 50% of all newborns are Muslim and by 2024 half the population will be Muslim..
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I don't suppose you fancy telling me how the proportion of Muslims in the Netherlands, which is currently about 6%, will reach 50% of the population if only half of newborns are Muslim? It's mathematically impossible, isn't it? Unless you expect the Dutch population to grow into billions? :confused:
 
Greebo said:
Okay, I accept now that they have used some dodgy statistics to scaremonger and that really nobody has any idea of birthrates of the future, but what happens if Muslim birthrates are higher than european ones for decades? Surely this could happen?
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It would take hundreds of years and the problem is not birthrates but immigration. Something that is controllable by state governments.

Also you need to realise that birthrates are very unreliable as an indicator of future demographics.
 
Greebo said:
Okay, I accept now that they have used some dodgy statistics to scaremonger and that really nobody has any idea of birthrates of the future, but what happens if Muslim birthrates are higher than european ones for decades? Surely this could happen?
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Of course it could happen but it wont happen in my lifetime and probably not in my kids lifetime...due to the fact that you have chavs, who procreate like mad that will restore the balance:p

But seriously my generation arent interested in having a huge number of kids ie my bro has 2 kids and hes now finished ie hes had the snip...when i have kids ill have 2 at most and majority of my friends who have kids or are about to...will only have a couple at most.

Completely different to the older generation ie my uncles, aunts and grandparents who were squeezing out kids like they were going out of fashion:p.
 
Greebo said:
Okay, I accept now that they have used some dodgy statistics to scaremonger and that really nobody has any idea of birthrates of the future, but what happens if Muslim birthrates are higher than european ones for decades? Surely this could happen?
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Well yes, however European birthrates used to be as high until child mortality fell massively, then they fell..

If I was a betting man I'd say that exactly the same will happen to Muslim communities as happened to Christian first world communities .. muslim families will start realising 'hold on, if I have 11 kids, they're all likely to survive, and I'll have a god-awful life'.

There is no religious reason why they have so many kids that is more extreme than what Christians teach. In Africa there are plenty of Christians who will pop out 8 kids per family because of the high mortality rate (horrible but true).

I'd actually say the child rate has virtually nothing to do with religion. It's some part of your brain doing what you think is required to keep your genes going. Throughout the whole world as recently as 100 year ago, that meant chucking kids out factory-stylee .. then watching a load of the cop it because of whopping cough
 
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Greebo said:
No it isn't. In the extreme case I cited, it's roughly 4 generations for the 5% minority to become the majority.
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roughly 4 generations meaning 5? either of which is over 100 years, not a matter of decades. I've expanded on my post.
 
Greebo said:
No it isn't. In the extreme case I cited, it's roughly 4 generations for the 5% minority to become the majority.
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Yeah and in the case you cited if there were no Muslims, human race would be extinct in a couple more generations.


edit my bad read that as birth rate of 1 not per person.
 
Weebull said:
I don't suppose you fancy telling me how the proportion of Muslims in the Netherlands, which is currently about 6%, will reach 50% of the population if only half of newborns are Muslim? It's mathematically impossible, isn't it? Unless you expect the Dutch population to grow into billions? :confused:
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If the stat was true (which it isn's according to Snopes), it does make sense.

Say there are 100,000 babies born each year so 50,000 would be Muslim and 50,000 would be European. Obviously those 50,000 would masssively increase the population of the Muslims and due to deaths and such a low birth rate, then the non muslim population would drop substantially. In future years, more than 50% of the birth's would be Muslim, hence it is acheivable but as Snopes say, it needs the birthrate of non muslims to be a factor of 16 less which it isn't.
 
britboy4321 said:
Well yes, however European birthrates used to be as high until child mortality fell massively, then they fell..

If I was a betting man I'd say that exactly the same will happen to Muslim communities as happened to Christian first world communities .. muslim families will start realising 'hold on, if I have 11 kids, they're all likely to survive, and I'll have a god-awful life'.

There is no religious reason why they have so many kids that is more extreme than what Christians teach. In Africa there are plenty of Christians who will pop out 8 kids per family because of the high mortality rate (horrible but true).

I'd actually say the child rate has virtually nothing to do with religion.
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Indeed, it has to do with education, wealth, social acceptance and numerous other variables. As the younger Muslim generations become more westernised they will have less children and finally it will balance out, much like the baby boomers etc...
 
http://www.indexmundi.com/netherlands/demographics_profile.html

Population of the Netherlands: ~17 million
Birthrate: ~10 per thousand, so pretty much 1%
Therefore: 170,000 births per year.

Current Muslim proportion of the Netherlands: 5.8%
Therefore: 986,000 Dutch Muslims

50% of newborns: 85,000
Therefore: Muslim birthrate: 86 per thousand, 8.6%, or approximately 15 kids per household!

Sounds a little unlikely, but then of course [insert terrible stereotype about minority here]. They breed like rabbits right?

Sooooo: 986,000 * (1.086 ^ 14) - Muslim population, multiplied by their birth rate, over the 14 years from now until 2024.
Equals: 3,129,640 - Three million, give or take.

Three million, even given that the total population of the Netherlands doesn't increase, is not half of 17 million. And that's assuming nobody dies, the non-Muslim proportion doesn't increase, no children of Muslims give up their religion, or any of the **** statistics they try to peddle are even remotely true.
 
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Greebo said:
No it isn't. In the extreme case I cited, it's roughly 4 generations for the 5% minority to become the majority.
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The main point is, why is your example an extreme, the birthrate for for white uk citizens is probably very close to 2, whats the average birthrate for Muslim families, 3 wouldn't be extreme, 6 would, maybe its 8, maybe its 32, guessing at the number, which frankly must be an available stat somewhere, is rather silly. Who says the Muslim birthrate in the uk is only double that of the white birthrate? Meh, I wouldn't be surprised to see it at 2 vs somewhere 5-6.

Greebo said:
If the stat was true (which it isn's according to Snopes), it does make sense.

Say there are 100,000 babies born each year so 50,000 would be Muslim and 50,000 would be European. Obviously those 50,000 would masssively increase the population of the Muslims and due to deaths and such a low birth rate, then the non muslim population would drop substantially. In future years, more than 50% of the birth's would be Muslim, hence it is acheivable but as Snopes say, it needs the birthrate of non muslims to be a factor of 16 less which it isn't.
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If only 6% of the population is matching the birthrate of, well if its 94%, then every year at the same birthrate per family the Muslim population will grow and within a few years the Muslim population will be far outgrowing the non muslim population.

The real issue is that on current birthrates of Muslim families in the UK, and the EU, yes, they will massively outgrow population wise the native populations in all countries.

The real question is, how long will they maintain the same birthrate. Immigrant Indian families for instance have a really high birthrate, but it tends to drop very quickly even for 2nd generation families, by the 3rd/4th generation the birthrate has dropped dramatically and is close to "normal".

So really is the question is how quickly will newer muslim familes birthrates drop, if it doesn't slow down huge muslim populations will become a problem, if it does, it won't for a MUCH longer time if it ever does.
 
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