Electric Cars coming in a year or two

[Glaucus]

In that case then I agree entirely, I was assuming that things like "start of the electric revolution" were that it would happen sometime 'soon'

No, just that it's the start
ie. These are the first electric cars that will sell in volume and will start the trend of an ever increasing % of the Market that will at some point dwarf petrol sales.

If you want rough estimates 2020 for most manufactures having an EV line-up and production to ramp up, then a steady but fast rise till 2030 to be nearly all new cars being purchased being EV. 2040-2050 for old petrol cars to be fairly rare, this coincides with EU reduction in co2 and power consumption. Where the focus is for a complete change by 2050.

Increase will be partly due to legislation to meet EU targets and avoid fines and partly due to ever increasing tax and petrol prices. While EV will substantially fall. Especially as it coincides with renewable energies fitted to homes, reducing charging costs.

 

[Simon]

These swappable batteries are not viable.

A 2ton SUV is going to need a very different battery to a city car.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

These swappable batteries are not viable.

A 2ton SUV is going to need a very different battery to a city car.

Battery? What only one

 

[edscdk]

These swappable batteries are not viable.

A 2ton SUV is going to need a very different battery to a city car.

city car takes 1 standard battery, but the suv takes 4 maybe?

 

[Glaucus]

These swappable batteries are not viable.

A 2ton SUV is going to need a very different battery to a city car.

Or two maybe three battery configurations. Just like we have different fuel types. If or when batteries increase you can just place the new battery types, into the old casings.

Or as above just use multiple units. But you can only charge at such a rate, so suv will have to drop in weight. Or the chances are such cars become rare, apart from the rich.

 

[Simon]

city car takes 1 standard battery, but the suv takes 4 maybe?

Where do you put all these batteries? Who is going to pay for them to be made, stored and swapped. You need a hell of a lot of them if they take hours to charge, plus the power consumption.

 

[Simon]

Or two maybe three battery configurations. Just like we have different fuel types. If or when batteries increase you can just place the new battery types, into the old casings.

Different cars will have different motor voltages, components. Battery technology will be constantly moving. It's hard enough with two CPU suppliers fitting into their own motherboards only. Imagine the scenario of cars and all the different suppliers and OEMs.

They will never agree on a standard.

 

[Glaucus]

They've already standardised charge rates and connections. So batteries will be fairly standard as well.

They have no choice due to legislation. Petrol at some one will be to expensive for most of the population.

It's like saying computer companies can't standardised connections, voltages and the like. Which 95% of them have done. and the last 5% just do it to charge for their hardware.

 

[edscdk]

Where do you put all these batteries? Who is going to pay for them to be made, stored and swapped. You need a hell of a lot of them if they take hours to charge, plus the power consumption.

thats a different issue, I already offered a solution to your city car V SUV issue

 

[Simon]

They've already standardised charge rates and connections. So batteries will be fairly standard as well.

They have no choice due to legislation. Petrol at some one will be to expensive for most of the population.

It's like saying computer companies can't standardised connections, voltages and the like. Which 95% of them have done. and the last 5% just do it to charge for their hardware.

Who are 'they'?

Cause last week when the Energy Technologies Institute presented to us about Electric vehicles they certainly didn't have this view.

Petrol is a commodity - supply and demand will dictate is price. It won't just simply shoot up in price. Why go all the way to EV (which most people dont want) when PHEV will do the same for less with no concerns over range.

You'll have to let me know when you can put Intel Chips into AMD motherboards

 

[Simon]

thats a different issue, I already offered a solution to your city car V SUV issue

There are loads of issues, for a start we couldnt all go to EV right now even if the cars were waiting for us.

 

[Simon]

The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI), tasked with developing technologies that will help the UK meet its 2050 carbon reduction targets under the Climate Change Act, is launching three major research projects to develop pathways to a self-sustaining mass market for electric (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) vehicles.

http://www.energytechnologies.co.uk...lestones_in_£11m_low_carbon_vehicle_plan.aspx


Programme Strategic Context



Transport contributes 31.7% of the UK emissions, 25.3% of this is from heavy duty transport and 51.4% is from light duty transport, the remaining 21.4% is in aviation which is not one of the ETI's focus areas.



There is considerable potential for electrification in the light duty sectors, which could substantially reduce emissions as power generation becomes increasingly clean. However, this will require a step change in consumer behaviour and will impact numerous organisations and industries.

The heavy duty sector requires a high energy density, hence is likely to use liquid fuels for the foreseeable future (which may be bio-fuels). Incremental system efficiency improvements are therefore critical to reducing emissions from heavy duty transport. However, the heavy duty sector is fragmented across multiple domains with vertically integrated supply-chains; inhibiting the financial feasibility of the development and adoption of some technologies.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

They've already standardised charge rates and connections. So batteries will be fairly standard as well.

SAE 1772-2009 is not a global standard connection if thats what you're refering to?

 

[Glaucus]

Who are 'they'?

Car manufactures.
Charging was standardised so that governments could install charging sites. They will use the same connection as is on the Nissan leaf.

Price will continue to ruse as it has been doing since the 70s, a few minor falls. But the trend is up and up and up. It doesn't need to shoot up to become unaffordable, food and living prices are also going up.

Then you have EU/UK legislation which is partly based on commitments made with large fines for missing deadlines.

Basically companies and uk have to switch for many reasons to electric and that's what we are seeing.

Again computer scenario is stupid.
It's more like PSU and USB connections. I can stick intel, and or any number of other companies equipment in a computer case and still use the same PSU and interconectors.

 

[Simon]

At the moment the OEMs get big bonuses for zero co2 vehicles in terms of fleet average. Also co2 emitted for the power generation is ignored.

This is not going to be the case forever.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Car manufactures.
Charging was standardised so that governments could install charging sites. They will use the same connection as is on the Nissan leaf.

Which one? The Leaf has two! (US models all now have the DC connection at a $700 cost impact to the vehicle)

 

[Simon]

Surely agreeing on the plug is the easy bit. If this battery swap idea becomes real, surely this is a mute point ?

 

[Glaucus]

SAE 1772-2009 is not a global standard connection if thats what you're refering to?

It's standard in America and will be standard in other counties. It is. What ev vehicles are shipping with and is what charging stations are being fitted with. How is that not a global standard in anything but name. It is standard be default.

 

[Glaucus]

Surely agreeing on the plug is the easy bit. If this battery swap idea becomes real, surely this is a mute point ?

Well no because you wont swap your battery every day. Estimates are the average user will need to swap the battery a mere 10times a year.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

It's standard in America and will be standard in other counties. It is. What ev vehicles are shipping with and is what charging stations are being fitted with. How is that not a global standard in anything but name. It is standard be default.

Europe connector & vehicle inlet
ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers Association


(French: Association des Constructeurs Europ[SIZE=+0]é[/SIZE]ens d'Automobiles) sets the standards in Europe. There is yet to be a decision made in Europe on the standard plug due to some countries complaining that a proposed German plug lacks a safety interlock that would prevent children from getting accidentally shocked. ACEA prefer the IEC 62196-2 Type 2 connector however some European countries have building regulations which require electrical contacts to be ''shuttered'' (IEC 62196-2 Type 3).

• IEC 62196-2 "Type 1" - single phase vehicle coupler - reflecting the SAE J1772-2009 automotive plug specifications
• IEC 62196-2 "Type 2" - single and three phase vehicle coupler - reflecting the VDE-AR-E 2623-2-2 plug specifications
• IEC 62196-2 "Type 3" - single and three phase vehicle coupler with shutters - reflecting the EV Plug Alliance proposal

A fundamental difference that is evolving between European and American electric vehicle charging: In the United States, the cable is permanently attached to the charger (similar to a gas station nozzle), but in Europe car owners will carry cables (and the necessary adapters) with them. The adapter procedure is probably familiar to travelers who carry them so they can charge cellphones and laptops across some European borders.