Lottery Odds

Skull

Skull

Skull

Soldato
Joined
15 Jan 2005
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Hello GD, just a quick question for those out there who are mathematically-inclined. I've been roped into the office lottery syndicate (£4 a month, no big deal), but I want to foist change upon them. Currently they are entering about 12 different draws a month and win almost nothing. I've sent an email around suggesting that if we put all of the money into a single draw, we vastly improve our chances of winning.

EDIT: There are 11 people in it so it would be 44 lines on the lottery or 22 lines on the Euromillions.

Its simple enough to explain to them that if you have 1 number combination, you have a 1 in 14m chance of winning, but if you have 2 number combinations you have a 1 in 7m chance, etc. What I want is a nice simple way (preferably with an example) of explaining that the probabilities of winning in 12 different draws are not related and will always be lower than buying more tickets for a single draw, because they are under the impression that as long as the number of tickets you buy is the same then so are the odds.

I'm a non-mathematical bumpkin and can't think of a simple way of doing that.

Tax on the stupid etc.
 
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Is what you've said there not sufficient?

simple demonstration:
put 6 counters(or marked pieces of paper) in a bag, give them 5 options for one draw or the same option for 5 draws.
They'll soon understand, although the difference is statistically insignificant when it comes to lottery draws.
 
Skull said:
I've sent an email around suggesting that if we put all of the money into a single draw, we vastly improve our chances of winning.
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I'm no statistics pro, but I wouldn't say it's vastly improving it. You're still look at hugely improbable odds. I'm not convinced you're going to increase your return on 12 lines dramatically by changing.
 
orderoftheflame said:
I'm no statistics pro, but I wouldn't say it's vastly improving it. You're still look at hugely improbable odds. I'm not convinced you're going to increase your return on 12 lines dramatically by changing.
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Depends how you look at it.

Doubling the chances of winning is a significant improvement however, 1 in 7 million is still extremely unlikely :p
 
you have a 1 in 14m chance of winning, but if you have 2 number combinations you have a 1 in 7m chance
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:rolleyes:

Buying two tickets does not increase your odds to 1 in 7 million. If you bought two tickets (and assuming they are for different numbers) the odds would be 2 in 14 million.

You cannot apply fraction logic to this scenario.
 
the only way you could improve your chances of winning is by going for twelve lines in the easiest to win draw. assuming all twelve all have the same chance of winning then there is no improvement no matter what combination you make

*edit*

amigafan2003 said:
:rolleyes:

Buying two tickets does not increase your odds to 1 in 7 million. If you bought two tickets (and assuming they are for different numbers) the odds would be 2 in 14 million.

You cannot apply fraction logic to this scenario.
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last time i checked 2/14mil = 1/7mil. he is right and you are wrong. having done statistics at A level i can categorically tell you that there is nothing wrong in simplifying the fraction when talking about this kind of thing
 
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Or indeed if I acquired all 14 million unique ticket combinations, would my odds still be exactly the same as if I had one ticket?
 
Reeve said:
So if the op somehow managed to acquire 7 million tickets his chances wouldn't be 7million/14million or 1/2?
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Yes he would have a 1 in 2 chance of winning the jackpot, providing each one of his tickets has a unique set of numbers.
 
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