I have an AMD card but I see it getting very close to 2gb in use, luckily they are 3gb cards. I'd go with the 4gb to be future proof as can't be long until they tip over 2gb more than the rare occasions shown in the graph above.
I bet if you was to play BF3 on full max detail @ 1080P, you could even see it use more than 2GB. Some games (can't speak for all) cache memory (stores textures etc) and this is why a 3GB/4GB will see more use than a 2GB. It makes no difference to gameplay with or without stored textures but on many occasions, I have seen the arguments "I see 2.5GB vram used in places in BF3, so that is what you need" but this is not the case.
Just using your post as reference
