UK needs more immigrants says report from the OBR

Freakbro · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:08

So, the Office of Budget Responsibility, the independent advisor to the treasury set up by George Osbourne, has studied the data and come up with the analysis that the UK needs a net influx of 140,000 immigrants for the next ~50 years (~6 million in total) to be able to cope with our future economic issues.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...ts-to-reduce-strain-of-ageing-population.html

In summary, they are saying that immigration brings a net economic benefit to the country* and this is what we need due to our ageing population, which is bringing with it unsustainable increases in the costs of pensions, healthcare and social care.

I can imagine this is not going to be a popular report with the general masses, but does it highlight again the disconnect between evidence based and populist opinion based policy, and which method should we ascribe to?

It seems far to often our politicians (of all persuasions) ask experts/scientists/professionals to study an issue and then ignore the answers they give if it isn't popular with the (generally ignorant) masses or fit with their ideology.

*

There is clear evidence that, since migrants tend to be more concentrated in the working-age group relatively to the rest of the population, immigration has a positive effect on the public sector’s debt dynamics."

It is a tough one as I live in one of the areas that seems to be negatively affected by the levels of immigration, ie: Lincolnshire, where some towns have seen a near doubling of their population with no increase in infrastructure. But if overall to the country the effect is positive, then maybe we should continue and just learn how to handle the negative effects more effectively.

robgmun · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:13

Smart intelligent immigrant professionals that can work and pay taxes (Such as business owners, doctors, lawyers, scientists etc etc) Good, I got no problem with them

Asylum seekers that get in on bogus cases and then bring in the entire extended family and they all claim benefits Bad (and before you start I know cases like this)

Freakbro · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:20

robgmun said:
Smart intelligent immigrant professionals that can work and pay taxes (Such as business owners, doctors, lawyers, scientists etc etc) Good, I got no problem with them

Asylum seekers that get in on bogus cases and then bring in the entire extended family and they all claim benefits Bad (and before you start I know cases like this)

And there we have it, anecdotal evidence, mixing issues - Asylum seekers have nothing to do with this, nor does illegal immigration before that gets mentioned too, being brought up in a discussion about economic workforce immigration.

First post too, well done!

badcompany · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:20

Professionals maybe, warehouse staff, waiters etc NO !

robgmun · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:24

Freakbro said:
First post too, well done!

You're welcome

But you know very well that the immigration as a definition covers anyone that enters this country that originally wasn't born here, and for that you have to accept that there is good immigration and bad immigration

Mr Jones · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:24

badcompany said:
Professionals maybe, warehouse staff, waiters etc NO !

Ironically, these are the jobs many areas of the UK need migrant workers because the natives thinks these jobs are below them!

Seriously, I worked at a cake factory and the hard workers were mostly foreign, the locals that took it either cant hack it or leave because they wanted something better. (There are others that joined and progressed beyond the manual work of course but it's a rare occurrence now.)

Freakbro · 19 Jul 2013 at 07:39

robgmun said:
But you know very well that the immigration as a definition covers anyone that enters this country that originally wasn't born here, and for that you have to accept that there is good immigration and bad immigration

Of course, there is good and bad, pros and cons with every facet of life, but if the net effect of the overall position is positive then surely that's the important part.

And again, this isn't about asylum seekers (who are not allowed to work anyway), illegal immigrants - who are well, illegal and thus not part of a prescribed system, this is mainly about the numbers of European immigrants who fill every strata of the workforce, from doctors to land workers.

And again, why are you showing your bias against the type of worker, professionals, doctors, scientists ok...but land workers bad? :confused:

they all pay taxes and spend their money in the economy.

Snob much?

android guy · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:03

We have too many already - No More, Jeez will this country never learn.

deuse · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:07

I just hope these lot can read and write English for their own safety.

Hades · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:09

From the view point of someone who can't get his kids into the next school due to lack of places, and therefore am having to move house, I doubt want any more people in this country unless the infrastructure is improved accordingly.

eatcustard · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:16

Deport everyone

Sorted

bitslice · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:26

So long as all the immigrants come from Poland, the Philippines or India then I've no problem with that at all. Hire some buses and get on with it.

Immigrants from other areas inevitably create cultural, social or economic problems of their own (and not just in the UK), or they bring with them the 0.01% that are nut jobs or will develop into nut jobs.
They are just not worth bothering with or worth taking the risk when people from other countries slot right in without a ripple.
Call it xenophobia if you what to look cool, I call it being pragmatic. Some cultures fit, some cultures never fit no matter what country they go to. I'd rather miss out on a few educated people and have social cohesion instead, because everyone wins then.

Xordium · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:43

So rather than tackle the actual problem they propose getting more people to come to the country to push back the problem a few years even if it will amplify the effect we don't want.

Wow that's clever.

Edrof · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:45

I know three Poles, a Russian and a Lithuanian. They are all recent immigrants and are all outstanding people, willing and wanting to learn about English culture and bringing up productive, nice children. I know this isn't necessarily a typical snapshot of immigration but it offers a counterpoint (based in reality) to Daily Fail type arguments.

scorza · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:50

Freakbro said:
And there we have it, anecdotal evidence, mixing issues - Asylum seekers have nothing to do with this, nor does illegal immigration before that gets mentioned too, being brought up in a discussion about economic workforce immigration.

First post too, well done!

Agreed, amazing how many thickies continue to get the two mixed up.

I will point however out that despite being independent, the OBR doesn't have a good record with its economic predictions for the year ahead, so why should we believe them on their predictions for 50 years into the future?

Kmodo · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:56

Immigrants get old too, so then we are left with even larger population which will require even more immigration to sustain?!

Saytan · 19 Jul 2013 at 08:58

We need young strong backs to carry the burden of our enormous pensions bill.

Xordium · 19 Jul 2013 at 09:03

Kmodo said:
Immigrants get old too, so then we are left with even larger population which will require even more immigration to sustain?!

Possibly yes. The statistics chaps will happily point out that economic migrants, eg from the EU, will be predominately be in a wage earning age demographic. Which is rather funny as that's what they came over to do. When they've earned that wage though for many years and placed down all those roots they are assuming they will disappear. Strangely enough recent migrants will be younger as they have the capacity to move. It's stating the bleedin' obvious and says nothing about the long-term effect.

GAC · 19 Jul 2013 at 09:04

here we go again, we have a skills drain and theres too many old people.

labour said the same stuff in the 90's and some still do to try and explain their immigration policy of letting pretty much anyone in.

the only skills drain we have is companies refusing to train people up and wanting people to have years of experience and training behind them so they dont have to invest money and time.

as for the growing oap population, well a report a few months ago says theres over a million people over 65 still working, which is buggering up the jobs market for the younger end looking for now. so why would importing more people help when we have 2.4 (probably closer to 3.5) million people out of work as well as people working well past retirement.

the obr should be taken out and shot like many other such think tanks filled with people who seem to think the uk is a very different place than it actually is.

Amp34 · 19 Jul 2013 at 09:05

My main question is where are we going to fit this 6 million in a country that is already one of the most heavily populated (by area) in the world?

Just because we need population growth for an increase in economic growth does not mean it's the right thing to do. Exponential increase is not going to be sustainable. How about instead of thinking about growth as the only indication of a prospering economy we think of something else. We have already covered over 10% of the UK in ckncrete, with only a few percent of this country not profoundly changed by humans. It's not sustainable, much like the almost exponential increase in population we've had in the last 50-100 years.

I do agree however, immigration of skilled/hard workers would benefit the economy, there is a lack of highly skilled people in the UK at the moment, partly due to the immigration squeeze the government put in and partly due to higher wages elsewhere in the world. The problem is we need a one in one out system of some kind IMO, unfortunately the only out people would have to be those on the lower end of the economic pile (those that don't/can't work) which doesn't sit right with me either...