Console sales predictions. Over 5 years, PS4, Xbone, Wii U.

Boomstick777

Boomstick777

Boomstick777

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Just a bit of fun, we can revisit this thread in 5 years :p

Put down your numbers in Black font and a brief reason why you think that. Let's see who's closest.. Assuming I'm still around in 5 years lol.

This is my guess, (Remember 5 years not lifetime)

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PS4: 85M

(Runaway success, lower price point and more powerful hardware give mass appeal)

Xbone: 65M

(Brand and American / UK market pull in big numbers for Xbone, can't quite catch PS4, but a lil ahead of Wii U)

Wii U: 55M

(Nintendo cause a massive turnaround in sales after a slow start '3DS Style' after Mario 3D World / Mario Kart / Donkey Kong and the new IP launch along with revised model and price drops ;))
 
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Just saw this exact thread over at neogaf :p

My prediction after 5 years:


PS4: 80M

Lower price and lots of good mind share, i think it will take an early lead and stay ahead

Xbone: 50M

Will still sell quite well but the price will put it at a disadvantage, this could be massively different if Microsoft ends up dropping the Kinect and are able to drop the price to below PS4 because of that


Wii U: 15-20M

The market just isn't there for this console, it will be discontinued before the next 5 years are up ( i personally think in 2015/2016) and would have been replaced. 20m is the absolute max this will manage to reach.
 
360 and PS3 have both shipped 80 million units and I expect that both the Xbone and PS4 will sell around the same albeit the PS4 selling a couple on million more but you never know with price cuts etc. The WII U (according to wikipedia) has only shipped 3.7 million units so far, I would be surprised if they hit 20.
 
Kreeeee said:
That's am immense number of Wii U sales you're predicting there!
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All depends on whether they can keep the sales growth rolling. August to September Wii U hardware sales rose 200% in US and nearly 700% in UK and as a market whole the original Wii is supposedly the No 1 console for brand awareness in the UK which means there are a whole lot of fans to sell to if they get the marketing right.

It's just under 4m units total I believe atm for hardware sales, therefore with a good year 20m+ is achievable.

No 1 priority, get the message out to Joe Public (and his/her parents/family) that it's a new console! Still seems to be the main problem, that and lack of games (which is slowly being addressed).
 
Windle said:
All depends on whether they can keep the sales growth rolling. August to September Wii U hardware sales rose 200% in US and nearly 700% in UK and as a market whole the original Wii is supposedly the No 1 console for brand awareness in the UK which means there are a whole lot of fans to sell to if they get the marketing right.

It's just under 4m units total I believe atm for hardware sales, therefore with a good year 20m+ is achievable.

No 1 priority, get the message out to Joe Public (and his/her parents/family) that it's a new console! Still seems to be the main problem, that and lack of games (which is slowly being addressed).
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Considering the Xbox One is about to outsell the Wii U LTD sales in the UK and it only came out Friday I can see Nintendo being unable to fix things, at least in the UK.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/xbox-one-sells-150k-units-in-first-week-in-uk/0124857

PS4 should beat Wii U LTD sales in the UK at launch and probably worldwide LTD by the end of December. That's how badly the Wii U has done. It will be lucky to hit 15-20 million.
 
^^ Wii U hasn't got started yet, it will be a sleeper hit. As soon as those big games come out and people are getting bored with PS4 / Xbone rehashes the Wii U install base will grow and grow over the next few years, hardware revision, future price cuts, and new Nintendo IP.. Wii U will hit at least 55 Million in 5 years. Interesting to come back to this thread then and see how it all panned out.
 
Boomstick777 said:
^^ Wii U hasn't got started yet, it will be a sleeper hit. As soon as those big games come out and people are getting bored with PS4 / Xbone rehashes the Wii U install base will grow and grow over the next few years, hardware revision, future price cuts, and new Nintendo IP.. Wii U will hit at least 55 Million in 5 years. Interesting to come back to this thread then and see how it all panned out.
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Not gonna happen. The only people interested in Nintendo games are Nintendo fans, and they likely already own a Wii U.

The majority of casual gamers who make up the massive numbers in the console market are only interested in COD, GTA etc. They don't care about Mario.
 
Hmmm I know one thing! Nintendo seem to aim for the younger kids with their stuff!

Hence why we did not buy one, our two teenagers were just not interested and only wanted the PS4.

The battle is between both Sony and Microsoft on this one, im hearing news that many places were cleaned out and have no stock.

So lets see what friday brings and what sony have up their sleeve.
 
XeNoN89 said:
Not gonna happen. The only people interested in Nintendo games are Nintendo fans, and they likely already own a Wii U.

The majority of casual gamers who make up the massive numbers in the console market are only interested in COD, GTA etc. They don't care about Mario.
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The Wii says hi.
 
When the Wii U stops getting XO/PS4 ports the console will be essentially dead with only Nintendo keeping it on life support. Lots of Nintendo fanboys will come in saying I'm wrong.

Moothead2 said:
The Wii says hi.
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Hype sold the Wii (with it's new control method), I'd like to see the numbers of those Wii's sold that are still in use. The fact the Wii U has bombed massively shows you people have moved on.
 
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Moothead2 said:
The Wii says hi.
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Along with it's 100.3m owners... (compared to 80m~ of PS3 and XB360 each)

Don't underestimate Nintendo. The launch was poor, with bad (or non-existent) marketing and a weak launch line-up. Nintendo appeals to a far wider audience than the core Microsoft/Sony gamers and therefore has the potential to be far bigger than either the Xbone or PS4.

However just because it has that potential it may not realise it. I had hoped to see more adverts for Wii U at this time, targeting christmas sales. As it is we're left to hope that the new games coming out will pull in new buyers.

There are signs of green shoots, check the Wii U thread for lots of new buyers on the recent deals. The price is right, the games are starting to arrive and if they capitalise on this then they can pull it off.
 
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