Jury Service: Attending against employer's wishes.

dowie · 12 Aug 2014 at 23:31

delta0 said:
If it is randomly selected each time then the highest probability is in this order of highest to lowest.
Not being chosen at all.
Being chosen once.
Being chosen twice.

Once you have been chosen once then the probability of being chosen again reduces. The probability of being chosen isn't the same for everyone. The only time the probability was the same was on the first ever jury service draw.

no, if its completely random then everyone has the same chance each time a draw occurs... prior events are irrelevant

Threepwood · 12 Aug 2014 at 23:53

^^ unless you make the prediction that you will be picked twice, before you are even picked once.

Right?

estebanrey · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:06

Threepwood said:
^^ unless you make the prediction that you will be picked twice, before you are even picked once.

Right?

Well sure, in the same way someone has far less chance of winning the lottery before the draw than someone who has matched the first 5 numbers and is waiting on the last one to drop (1 in circa 14 million vs 1 in 44).

dowie · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:08

Threepwood said:
^^ unless you make the prediction that you will be picked twice, before you are even picked once.

Right?

making a prediction doesn't affect the chance of being picked again

you are less likely to be picked twice than you are to be picked once... but once you've already been picked once then your chances of being picked again are the same as anyone else

estebanrey · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:13

dowie said:
you are less likely to be picked twice than you are to be picked once

To be pedantic that depends on what the odds of you being picked at all is. For example if I flipped a coin every day for the rest of my life the chance of me seeing two heads is higher than only seeing one.

But then I'm just being an arse

dowie · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:24

estebanrey said:
To be pedantic that depends on what the odds of you being picked at all is. For example if I flipped a coin every day for the rest of my life the chance of me seeing two heads is higher than only seeing one.

But then I'm just being an arse

rather a different sort of event... we're talking about a rare event occurring not a coin toss

estebanrey · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:32

dowie said:
rather a different sort of event... we're talking about a rare event occurring not a coin toss

Is being picked for jury service a rare event though? It would depend on how many people live in your jurisdiction, how many trials happen a year and how many years the average person in that area lives.

Someone living in Midsommer for example must have a stupendously high chance of being picked for Jury service multiple times over a lifetime (although a lifetime there is much shorter than everywhere else)

dowie · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:34

estebanrey said:
Is being picked for jury service a rare event though? It would depend on how many people live in your jurisdiction, how many trials happen a year and how many years the average person in that area lives.

Its still a rare event regardless

estebanrey · 13 Aug 2014 at 00:39

xxalxx · 13 Aug 2014 at 05:19

I would have thought them pointing you in the direction of the "you can be sacked ...." Guidance would have opened up a can of worms around constructive dismissal??

delta0 · 13 Aug 2014 at 06:09

dowie said:
no, if its completely random then everyone has the same chance each time a draw occurs... prior events are irrelevant

Look up some probability maths on independent events. It most certainly is not the same porbability everytime. If you have been picked once already then the probability of being picked again reduces and everyone elses rises. This can apply to everyday events. The lottery, the more times you play and don't win the greater your probability is of winning on the next event. The more times you flip a coin and get a heads then the probability of getting a tail increases. Everytime you role a dice the probability of getting that number again reduces and the others increases. The probability changes at every event.

janp · 13 Aug 2014 at 08:33

It's funny, I first did jury service at age 18. I remember a fellow juror saying, that if you caught you young, you'd get called up many times. He wasn't wrong.

I'm now 27 and have been called up 3 times. I enjoyed the first time, but it's becoming a pain now. Fortunately, I was able to be excused on the last summons (medical reasons).

So, if you do excuse yourself. Chances are you will probably be picked again.

john_s · 13 Aug 2014 at 08:35

delta0 said:
Look up some probability maths on independent events. It most certainly is not the same porbability everytime. If you have been picked once already then the probability of being picked again reduces and everyone elses rises. This can apply to everyday events. The lottery, the more times you play and don't win the greater your probability is of winning on the next event. The more times you flip a coin and get a heads then the probability of getting a tail increases. Everytime you role a dice the probability of getting that number again reduces and the others increases. The probability changes at every event.

No.

dowie · 13 Aug 2014 at 09:39

delta0 said:
Look up some probability maths on independent events. It most certainly is not the same porbability everytime. If you have been picked once already then the probability of being picked again reduces and everyone elses rises.

Are you deliberately trolling? If not then you should do what you've just suggested - this is a basic concept and the key word, as you've mentioned, is independent events.

If the events are independent how does the probability of a future event change as a result of a prior event occurring. Think about it for a bit... If the previous event does have an effect then the events aren't independent.

Quartz · 13 Aug 2014 at 09:40

estebanrey said:
If the selection process is random ...

He did not give me the details but while the initial selection process is indeed random, the fill-up procedure if they're short is not. He said that once they know you're available (retired, unemployed, etc), you're more likely to get called. And they can haul people off the street to act as jurors so if you work near a court, beware!

skyripper · 13 Aug 2014 at 09:58

Your employers sound like a bunch of incompetent idiots.

Burnsy2023 · 13 Aug 2014 at 10:07

skyripper said:
Your employers sound like a bunch of incompetent idiots.

True dat.

Judgeneo · 13 Aug 2014 at 11:46

delta0 said:
Look up some probability maths on independent events. It most certainly is not the same porbability everytime. If you have been picked once already then the probability of being picked again reduces and everyone elses rises. This can apply to everyday events. The lottery, the more times you play and don't win the greater your probability is of winning on the next event. The more times you flip a coin and get a heads then the probability of getting a tail increases. Everytime you role a dice the probability of getting that number again reduces and the others increases. The probability changes at every event.

This is just wrong.

Flip a coin. The probability of getting a heads is 50%
Flip a coin. The probability of getting a heads is 50%
Flip a coin. The probability of getting a heads is 50%

Flip a coin three times, the probability of getting a heads is 12.5%
Flip a coin three times, the first coin landed heads. The probability of getting heads three times in total is now 25%
Flip a coin three times, the first two coins landed heads. The probability of getting three heads in total is now 50%

Flip a coin. The probability of getting a heads is 50%

Do you see the difference?

aardvark · 13 Aug 2014 at 12:19

delta0 said:
Look up some probability maths on independent events. It most certainly is not the same porbability everytime. If you have been picked once already then the probability of being picked again reduces and everyone elses rises. This can apply to everyday events. The lottery, the more times you play and don't win the greater your probability is of winning on the next event. The more times you flip a coin and get a heads then the probability of getting a tail increases. Everytime you role a dice the probability of getting that number again reduces and the others increases. The probability changes at every event.

go back to school.

delta0 · 13 Aug 2014 at 12:28

The probability of multiple independent events occuring are multiplied together. For example. Let's say we have ten people and 1 is picked at random and then returned. There is a 1/10 chance of being picked. Every event there is a 1/10 chance of being picked. However the probability of being picked once over 5 selection processes is 5/10 or 1/2.

Let's say now you were picked on the first round. The chance of being picked again during the second round is 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/100
Or if we are picked on the first round being picked once more during the remaining four rounds is 1/10 x 4 x 1/10 = 1/25

The chance of being picked twice during the entire 5 picks is 5 x 1/10 x 1/10 = 1/20

etc..

Independent events have the same probaility for each event but everyone isn't put through the selection process just once. What we have is multiple independent events.