Winter 2015 - Weather Predictions

Neil79

Neil79

Neil79

Caporegime
Joined
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Seeing as we are less than one month away from 2015, it's time to look at what could be happening tail end of 2014 into 2015. So far the signs are good, but I'm sure everyone here has noticed a difference from last year... No mass flooding, not mild, more frost and ice. Oh and it's actually snowed up north!

What I'm trying to get across, without rambling on any further, is that the background states that promote a potential SSW this winter (eQBO, SAI etc etc) haven't gone away and so that risk remains. These warmings for the end of the year will, no doubt, progress nearer and nearer to present day as we move through December and by time we get to New Years Eve things could really be hotting up up there, but it's going to take time and perhaps far longer than most envisaged. I made a prediction of a 7th of Jan 15 SSW event, but I could happily add another week on to the top of that and say mid-January now. Clearly what happens in the troposphere in the mean time is an individual development and there's always the chance, like some of the models are showing, for a more blocked pattern anyway without the help of a SSW. That being said I think the 'true' winter synoptics will still arrive, but those waiting to see what will happen once a SSW event takes place will have to continue to wait for some time and again, in my opinion, until mid-January now at the earliest but we shall see.

Regards, Matt.
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Met Office

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Dec 2014 to Sunday 11 Jan 2015:

The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is the risk that a more prolonged cold spell could develop from early January.
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UK Outlook for Monday 29 Dec 2014 to Monday 12 Jan 2015:
The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. This will bring cloudy periods with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer and transient cold interludes. These could include wintry showers, mainly in the north. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to vary day by day, but tending to average out to be around, or just below normal. This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is also the potential for a slightly more settled, and colder spell to develop from early January.
Updated at: 1448 on Sun 14 Dec 2014
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So there we go, IF there is going to be a proper winter it doesn't look likely till after Christmas, more especially Jan. We shall see :o:o:o Been here before
 
Jono8 said:
Yeh, we might have some wintery weather. In winter. It is going to be mad.
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Yeah, Winter is just like Summer but with 'W,I,N and T' instead of the 'S,U and Ms' and Winter is like the Summer but with 'W,I,N and T' instead of the 'S,U and Ms'. How mad is that!? :eek:
 
Neil79 said:
So there we go, IF there is going to be a proper winter it doesn't look likely till after Christmas, more especially Jan. We shall see :o:o:o Been here before
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Just like every other winter then. For a minute there I thought there was actually going to be a surprise.

Before the calender changed in the 17th or 18th century xmas used to occur in whats now january so the chance of snow or frost was that much more likely than now. Also coincided with whats known as the Little Ice Age when average temperatures were lower than today and the river Thames used to freeze over regularly and Frost Fairs where held on it, the last time was 1821 iirc.

The traditional image of snow at xmas has stuck, even though it almost never happens anymore. Infact last year's global average was the warmest on record iirc.
 
But last year into jan/feb we had no snow, nor did we have any frost, to be honest there was hardly any cold air about and it was storm after storm. Can't remember a winter we didn't have atleast one air frost
 
The general population: 2 inches of snow in February, as per usual.

Daily Express readers: 6 feet of snow, blizzards, 88mph gale force wind, sub-zero in Fahrenheit (yeah Express readers still use imperial), Richter scale 9 earthquakes, followed by a red hot scorcher of a summer with sandstorms.

:p
 
I'm really hoping for a lot of snow starting the evening of the 23rd and lasting a few weeks
I really hate driving in the snow so it has to hold off until the 23rd when I break off work. then once I'm back to work I don't mind the cold but aslong as the snow/ice has gone i'll be happy
 
Weather model update literally just minutes ago shows huge potential for snow just missing Christmas day. Generally though looks like being milder between now and Christmas but decent signals for some wintery snaps in early 2015.
 
Moses said:
This seems like a really interesting idea for a thread, given how difficult it is to predict much outside of the very short term when it comes to weather. All the insightful blind guesses will really help me plan for 2015 :cool:.
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I dunno its kind of interesting if you don't take it too seriously but yeah - literally 6 hours between runs and completely different picture of the weather over the next few days let alone months ahead (and probably by tomorrow it'll show a different story again).

IMO Winter 2016/17 is the next one to watch out for as current signals make it likely to be close to a repeat of the conditions of 2009. This current one looks like being a mix of milder, wetter weather mixed with the odd colder snap and mostly changeable and "meh".
 
It's going to be colder than a Tory politician's heart.


We're all going to die from hypothermia.
 
I vote we all listen to the Daily Express. They seem to know of IMPENDING WEATHER DOOM FOR WEEKS TO COME and that there will be EIGHTY FEET OF SNOW IN 5 HOURS TO BATTER BRITAIN.

Then again we could just look outside.

I do think it'll be reasonably mild again. As long as it's nothing like 2010 then I won't mind.
 
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