Will UKIP win its first seat in parliament tonight?

platypus said:
I literally cannot imagine how bad a Labour/UKIP coalition would be.
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The Chances of either Labour or the Tories forming a coalition with the UKIP are extremely remote for many reasons, not least it would be a PR disaster for them. Moreover, UKIP just wont get that many seats, lib dems should comfortable gain many more seats even if they dont do well. If the UKIP do well it is most likely at the cost of Tory seats which then will make a labour+lib dem majority more likely. Then there is the fact that if people are voting less for labour and the Tories it means all minority parties will tend to do better, including the green party.

The polls that show UKIP getting 20 odd seats are based on a PR system we don't have. The fact is in many parts of the country the voters hate UKIP, e.g. the whole of scotland.

Remember, it wasn't long ago when the BNP were supposed to win all these seats which unsurprisingly never happened.
 
platypus said:
It's unlikely that UKIP will get enough votes to gain a significant number of MPs. However, it's one possiblity that ukip will split enough conservative votes to allow Labour back in (because of our voting system), but not without needing a coalition to form a government. Much like the Libdems, UKIP would sell their own mothers for a sniff of power and not give a damn who they were sharing power with.
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It would certainly be a delicious irony if, after campaigning vigorously with some really dirty tricks and highly dubious arguments to keep the FPTP system over AV, it was a peculiarity of the FPTP system that costed the Conservatives the next election.
 
platypus said:
It's unlikely that UKIP will get enough votes to gain a significant number of MPs. However, it's one possiblity that ukip will split enough conservative votes to allow Labour back in (because of our voting system), but not without needing a coalition to form a government. Much like the Libdems, UKIP would sell their own mothers for a sniff of power and not give a damn who they were sharing power with.
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UKIP just wont have enough seats to make a collation worth it.
 
scorza said:
It would certainly be a delicious irony if, after campaigning vigorously with some really dirty tricks and highly dubious arguments to keep the FPTP system over AV, it was a peculiarity of the FPTP system that costed the Conservatives the next election.
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The outcome may be no different under an AV system.
 
People have ridiculously selective and short memories so I wouldn't be surprised if Labour get back in with a small majority.

Funny how people will vote Labour without batting an eyelid yet still bang on about Thatcher.
 
AlecR said:
Can I just ask who you people think is going to have the highest number of MPs in the next election. I'm genuinely curious.
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Its literally a few seats apart on polls for both labour and conservatives, but i doubt the conservatives will be able to make a coalition since the lib dems are definitely dead and everyone else despises them.

So i would say labour, since smaller parties are likely to join them, but who knows.
 
It is quite literally possible that SNP actually gets in with a chance to be a coalition partner with Labour, i highly doubt it, but they might have the seats required for labour.

Labour only cares about running the country, they wont give a damn if it requires sacrifice.
 
StriderX said:
It is quite literally possible that SNP actually gets in with a chance to be a coalition partner with Labour, i highly doubt it, but they might have the seats required for labour.

Labour only cares about running the country, they wont give a damn if it requires sacrifice.
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Yeah Labour is a nasty power hungry bunch, but how would the english feel having 30 SNP Mps having a say over our country and Alex Salmon being deputy? I think things would kick off royally!
 
robgmun said:
Yeah Labour is a nasty power hungry bunch, but how would the english feel having 30 SNP Mps having a say over our country and Alex Salmon being deputy? I think things would kick off royally!
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Well 6 million people would find it ok, also, technically its almost a good thing since ~30 seats more or less equals the population distribution between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

:)
 
robgmun said:
Yeah Labour is a nasty power hungry bunch, but how would the english feel having 30 SNP Mps having a say over our country and Alex Salmon being deputy?
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IMO it would never happen, the only way a Lab/SNP coalition would work would be if it favoured Scotland at the expense of england (because if the SNP backed Labour up for no return then scots may as well just vote Labour so it would damage the SNP), in which case Miliband may as well abolish tax for people who earl over 100k a year, because he's killed his party.
 
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